For the first time in this century, two famines were confirmed in a single year — Sudan and Gaza — marking a threshold that Jean-Martin Bauer, the UN World Food Programme's director of food security, describes not as an anomaly but as an acceleration. The world grows enough food to sustain ten billion people, yet the number suffering the most extreme forms of hunger has risen seventeen-fold since the eve of the pandemic, driven by compounding conflicts, climate disruption, and a 54 percent collapse in WFP funding. What Bauer is witnessing is not a failure of production but a failure of the sys
UN food chief warns of 'big trouble' as famines return and hunger reaches crisis levels
Nine of ten women seeking child nutrition at Afghan health centers are turned away; 5.8 million Haitians (over half the population) face acute food insecurity; 45 million additional people projected to face hunger globally.
The global market is simply not able to meet people's needs.
Mark
So Bauer spent 25 years at this organization, and he's saying we're in "big trouble." What does that actually mean in practical terms?
Mimi
It means the systems that used to absorb shocks—government support, international aid, stable supply routes—are breaking down all at once. Afghanistan is the clearest example. They can't get biscuits to schoolchildren anymore without routing them through seven countries and across the Caspian Sea.
Luke
But wait—the WFP still got the biscuits there, right? The system bent, but it didn't break.
Mimi
True. But the cost went up, the time went up, and the route is now permanent. That's not a one-time workaround. That's the new normal.
Mark
And the numbers he's citing—17-fold increase in severe hunger since before the pandemic, two famines in one year—are those verified?
Luke
The 17-fold figure comes from Bauer's own analysis at the WFP. The two famines in 2025 are confirmed by the same organization. So yes, they're verified, but they're all coming from one source. We should note that.
Mimi
Fair point. But the independent analysis FTM did suggested his 45 million figure was actually conservative. So if anything, he's understating it.
Mark
What about the El Niño piece? Is that certain to make things worse?
Luke
Meteorologists say 98 percent probability of a very strong event. Crop failures are expected in specific regions. But we don't know yet exactly how bad it will be or how it will interact with the conflict and funding cuts.
Mimi
Right. But Bauer's point is that we're stacking crises. Middle East conflict, climate shock, depleted aid budgets, gang violence in Haiti, gang violence in Afghanistan. Any one of those is manageable. All of them at once is not.
Mark
He mentions food riots in 2007-2008 and the Arab Spring. Is he saying that's coming again?
Luke
He's saying it's a risk. Food prices are already rising sharply in countries where the Arab Spring started. But predicting social unrest is hard. We can track the prices, we can see the demonstrations in Kenya and Venezuela, but whether those turn into something larger is still unknown.
Mimi
What's not unknown is that hungry people are more likely to destabilize. That's historical fact. And we have 45 million more people projected to face hunger. The math is simple.
Mark
So what does Bauer think should happen?
Mimi
He doesn't say explicitly in this interview. But the implication is clear: the global market can't solve this alone. Governments need to fund humanitarian aid at much higher levels, and the international community needs to find ways to keep supply routes open even when there's conflict.
Luke
And that's the hard part, because governments are constrained by their own fiscal situations, and conflict is getting worse, not better.
El Pulso
- A shipment of fortified biscuits for 172,000 Afghan schoolchildren was forced onto a 15,000-kilometer odyssey through seven countries after conflict closed every shorter route — a single delivery that captures how thoroughly war has fractured the architecture of humanitarian aid.
- WFP funding has been cut nearly in half since 2022, leaving an agency that serves 121 million people across 120 countries operating with a fraction of what the scale of the crisis demands.
- Nine out of ten mothers arriving at Afghan health centers seeking nutrition support for their children are turned away empty-handed, while in Haiti more than half the population faces acute food insecurity in conditions so dangerous that aid must be delivered by helicopter.
- El Niño — assessed at a 98 percent probability of being 'very strong' — is expected to trigger crop failures across Africa, Asia, and Central America, threatening to push food prices far beyond the 2.5 percent rise already projected for this year.
- Venezuela and Iran are already experiencing food price inflation of 564 and 144 percent respectively, and analysts warn that the combination of climate shock and supply chain collapse could ignite social unrest on the scale of the 2007–2008 food riots or the 2011 Arab Spring.
For the first time in this century, two famines were confirmed in a single year — Sudan and Gaza — marking a threshold that Jean-Martin Bauer, the UN World Food Programme's director of food security, describes not as an anomaly but as an acceleration. The world grows enough food to sustain ten billion people, yet the number suffering the most extreme forms of hunger has risen seventeen-fold since the eve of the pandemic, driven by compounding conflicts, climate disruption, and a 54 percent collapse in WFP funding. What Bauer is witnessing is not a failure of production but a failure of the systems — political, logistical, financial — that were supposed to carry food from where it exists to where it is needed.
Jean-Martin Bauer has spent twenty-five years tracking hunger for the UN World Food Programme. In October 2026, he described the current moment with unusual directness: "we're in big trouble."
The trouble took physical form earlier that year when the WFP tried to deliver fortified biscuits to 172,000 Afghan schoolchildren. The planned route — Indonesia to Pakistan by sea, then overland — was blocked by a closed border. A rerouting through the Strait of Hormuz was shut down when Israeli and American strikes hit Iranian targets. The biscuits eventually traveled 15,000 kilometers through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, across the Caspian Sea, and finally by lorry to Kabul. It was the only route left. "It has really become quite an ordeal just to get anything into the country," Bauer said.
That ordeal is a symptom of a broader collapse. The number of people in the most severe category of acute hunger has risen seventeen-fold since just before the pandemic. In 2025, two famines were confirmed simultaneously — Sudan and Gaza — the first time this century such a thing has occurred. "I want to emphasise how rare this is," Bauer said. The paradox is that the world produces enough food to feed ten billion people. The failure is not agricultural — it is systemic. Conflict, COVID-19, the Ukraine war, and the Middle East crisis have struck in rapid succession, exhausting the coping mechanisms that once absorbed individual shocks. Meanwhile, WFP funding fell 54 percent between 2022 and 2025, leaving the agency with roughly 6.5 billion dollars to sustain operations serving 121 million people.
The human cost is immediate. In Afghanistan, nine of ten women seeking child nutrition support at health centers are turned away. In Haiti, where Bauer served as regional director until 2024, 5.8 million people — more than half the population — face acute food insecurity, and gang violence forces the WFP to rely on helicopters whose operating costs have risen at least 20 percent due to fuel price increases driven by Middle East instability.
A further threat is now unfolding. El Niño, which began in June and carries a 98 percent probability of being a very strong event, is expected to cause crop failures across eastern and southern Africa, Central America, and large parts of Asia. Food prices are already projected to rise 2.5 percent globally this year, but analysts warn the real figure could be far higher. Venezuela has seen prices rise 564 percent year-on-year; Iran, 144 percent. History suggests what follows: food riots struck more than 30 countries in 2007 and 2008, and rising wheat prices helped ignite the Arab Spring in 2011. "Those already hungry, displaced, or affected by war will be hit hardest," Bauer said — but he was careful to note that the crisis is no longer contained to the most vulnerable regions. "The global market is simply not able to meet people's needs. This crisis could well be one of these major seminal moments in global supply chains and food systems."
Jean-Martin Bauer has spent a quarter-century watching hunger move across the world. As director of food security and nutrition analysis at the UN World Food Programme, he has tracked the numbers, mapped the crises, and tried to move aid into places where it barely fits anymore. In October 2026, sitting down to talk about what he sees, he used a phrase that carried the weight of his experience: "we're in big trouble."
The trouble arrived in concrete form last spring, when the WFP needed to deliver fortified biscuits to 172,000 schoolchildren in Afghanistan. The shipment was supposed to travel from Indonesia to Pakistan, then cross the border by truck. But the border was closed. The agency rerouted the biscuits to Dubai, planning to sail them through the Strait of Hormuz to Iran and then overland. In late February, Israel and the United States struck Iranian targets, closing that route too. The WFP went back to the drawing board. The biscuits eventually traveled 15,000 kilometers—across Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Turkey, Georgia, and Azerbaijan by road, then by ship across the Caspian Sea to Turkmenistan, and finally by lorry through northwestern Afghanistan to Kabul. It was longer, costlier, and more complex than anyone had planned. It was also the only way left. "All our supplies to Afghanistan now go via that northern route through Central Asia," Bauer told the journalists. "It has really become quite an ordeal just to get anything into the country."
The Afghanistan route is a symptom of a larger collapse. Bauer's team has been issuing alerts about worsening food crises across the globe with increasing frequency. In mid-March, they projected that 45 million additional people would face acute hunger due to higher energy and fertilizer prices and disrupted supply chains—a figure that independent analysis suggested was itself conservative. But the raw numbers tell a starker story. The number of people suffering from acute hunger in the most severe category—defined as total lack of food and other basic necessities—has increased 17-fold since just before the coronavirus pandemic. Famines, once rare, are becoming routine. Somalia in 2011. South Sudan in 2017 and 2020. Sudan in 2024 and 2025. Then Gaza in 2025. "For the first time this century," Bauer said, "we had two famines confirmed in the same year." He paused on that fact. "I want to emphasise how rare this is."
The contradiction is stark. The world produces enough food to feed 10 billion people. It has more resources than ever before. And yet the most extreme forms of hunger are increasing. Bauer attributes this to conflict and its cascading effects. The past six years have delivered one shock after another—COVID-19, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the livelihoods crisis that followed, and now conflict in the Middle East. "It's been a roller coaster," he said, "and it seems that some of the key coping mechanisms are just not there this time around." Governments cannot provide the fiscal support they once did. The international community's capacity to respond is constrained. The WFP operates in more than 120 countries and territories, providing assistance to 121 million people last year. It requires billions to sustain those operations. But between 2022 and 2025, WFP funding fell by 54 percent, to just over 6.5 billion dollars.
The human cost is immediate and visible. In Afghanistan, nine of every ten women who arrive at a health center hoping to get food for their child are turned away with nothing. In Haiti, where Bauer served as regional director from 2022 to 2024, more than half the population—5.8 million people—face acute food insecurity. Gang violence restricts humanitarian access so severely that the WFP relies on helicopter transport. Rising fuel prices from the Middle East conflict are making those emergency deliveries far more expensive. "The cost of operating the UN Humanitarian Air Service in some cases is rising by 20 percent at least because of the increase in fuel costs," Bauer said.
A new threat is unfolding in real time. El Niño officially began in early June and is expected to last about a year. Meteorologists estimate a 98 percent probability of a "very strong" event. Crop failures are expected across eastern and southern Africa, Central America, and large parts of Asia. The WFP's mapping shows that 30 million people already depend on agricultural areas that are either too dry or too wet. Food prices worldwide are set to rise 2.5 percent this year, though analysts warn El Niño could drive them significantly higher. In Venezuela, prices have risen 564 percent compared with a year earlier. In Iran, 144 percent. In Syria, 22 percent. In Libya, 18 percent. In Tunisia and Egypt, 8 percent. History offers a warning. In 2007 and 2008, food riots erupted in more than 30 countries. In 2011, the Arab Spring was driven in part by rising wheat prices. "Those already hungry, displaced, or affected by war will be hit hardest," Bauer said. Recent mass demonstrations in Kenya and Venezuela over falling purchasing power could easily turn into protests over food prices. The crisis is no longer confined to the most vulnerable regions. It is undermining social progress and security in prosperous parts of the world. "The global market is simply not able to meet people's needs," Bauer concluded. "This crisis could well be one of these major seminal moments in global supply chains and food systems."
Citas Notables
Even before the current wars in the Middle East, I would have told you that, for the first time this century, we're in big trouble.— Jean-Martin Bauer, WFP director of food security and nutrition analysis
Nine out of 10 women who arrive at a health center hoping for food for their child are being turned away without anything.— Jean-Martin Bauer, describing the situation in Afghanistan
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