In the long arc of modern warfare, Ukraine has found a way to strike at the economic heart of its adversary without crossing a single border on foot. By targeting Russia's oil refineries with long-range drones, Kyiv has rendered nearly 38 percent of Moscow's refining capacity idle, forcing the Kremlin to seek fuel from Asian markets and authorize chemical workarounds to stretch what remains. What began as a military campaign has become an economic siege — and as winter draws near, the pressure on Russia's energy infrastructure may only deepen.
Ukraine's Drone Campaign Forces Russia to Import Fuel from Asia
Regional fuel shortages in Russia are causing rationing and price freezes, affecting civilian access to fuel supplies.
The most effective sanctions are the fires at Russia's refineries
Mark
So Ukraine is hitting Russian oil refineries with drones. How much of Russia's fuel production has actually gone offline?
Mimi
Nearly 38 percent of refining capacity was down by the end of September. About 70 percent of those outages came directly from drone strikes.
Luke
That's from Ciala, one analytics firm. We should note that's their assessment—not independently verified across multiple sources. But it's consistent with what we know about the targeting.
Mark
Sixteen refineries hit out of thirty-eight total. That's almost half the facilities.
Mimi
Right. And some have been struck multiple times. The campaign has been sustained and deliberate.
Mark
So Russia is now importing gasoline from China and South Korea?
Mimi
Yes. They're waiving import duties to make it cheaper and faster. They're also using an octane-boosting additive they normally wouldn't allow, just to stretch what they have.
Luke
That's a temporary authorization—six months. It suggests they're buying time, not solving the problem.
Mark
What about regular Russians? Are they feeling this?
Mimi
Crimea is rationing fuel and freezing prices. Other regions are reporting shortages too.
Mark
And the Kremlin says everything is fine?
Luke
Deputy Prime Minister Novak said supply is "under control" but acknowledged they're solving problems "in manual mode"—which is a pretty honest way of saying they're constantly firefighting.
Mark
That doesn't sound like control.
Mimi
No. It sounds like they're managing a crisis one region at a time.
Der Puls
- Ukraine has struck 16 of Russia's 38 refineries, with drone attacks accounting for 70 percent of refining outages — a level of damage that domestic production can no longer absorb.
- Russia is now importing refined gasoline from China, South Korea, and Singapore, waiving import duties in a move that signals desperation rather than strategy.
- Moscow has authorized the use of monomethyl aniline, a chemical octane booster, for six months — a stopgap measure that reveals how thin the margins of the country's fuel supply have become.
- Crimea is already under fuel rationing with price freezes in place, and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak's admission that the situation is being managed 'in manual mode' betrays the fragility beneath official reassurances.
- With winter approaching, the convergence of damaged infrastructure, regional shortages, and improvised supply chains raises the stakes for both Russian civilians and the Kremlin's ability to sustain its war effort.
In the long arc of modern warfare, Ukraine has found a way to strike at the economic heart of its adversary without crossing a single border on foot. By targeting Russia's oil refineries with long-range drones, Kyiv has rendered nearly 38 percent of Moscow's refining capacity idle, forcing the Kremlin to seek fuel from Asian markets and authorize chemical workarounds to stretch what remains. What began as a military campaign has become an economic siege — and as winter draws near, the pressure on Russia's energy infrastructure may only deepen.
Ukraine's sustained drone campaign against Russian oil refineries has produced a crisis that Moscow can no longer absorb quietly. By late September, nearly 38 percent of Russia's refining capacity had gone offline, with drone strikes responsible for roughly 70 percent of those outages. Ukrainian forces have targeted 16 of Russia's 38 refineries, some repeatedly, in what President Zelenskyy has described as a deliberate economic strategy. "The most effective sanctions," he told the Ukrainian people in mid-September, "are the fires at Russia's oil refineries."
The Kremlin's response has been telling. Russia announced plans to waive import duties on gasoline from China, South Korea, and Singapore, while also pursuing increased purchases from Belarus. In a separate measure, Moscow authorized the temporary use of monomethyl aniline — a chemical additive used to boost octane ratings — for a six-month period to stretch existing fuel stocks. These are not the decisions of a country operating from a position of strength.
The human cost is already materializing. Fuel rationing has been imposed in Crimea, with prices frozen to prevent panic buying. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak acknowledged "some problems with supplies across some regions" while insisting the overall situation remains under control — managed, he said, "in manual mode." That phrase alone suggests a system under constant strain rather than one functioning normally.
As winter approaches, the question is whether Asian imports, Belarusian supply lines, and chemical workarounds will hold. What Ukraine's campaign has exposed is not just damage to individual facilities, but a structural vulnerability at the core of Russia's economy — one that funds both its domestic life and its war.
Ukraine's campaign of long-range drone strikes against Russian oil refineries and fuel infrastructure has created a cascading crisis that Moscow can no longer manage through domestic production alone. By late September, nearly 38 percent of Russia's refining capacity sat idle, with drone strikes responsible for roughly 70 percent of those outages, according to analytics firm Ciala. The scale of the damage is stark: Ukrainian forces have targeted 16 of Russia's 38 refineries during an intensified period of strikes, with some facilities hit repeatedly. In March 2024, a Kyiv intelligence source had already confirmed that Ukrainian drones had struck at least 12 refineries. The cumulative effect has forced the Kremlin into an unusual position—importing refined gasoline from Asia to keep civilian and military fuel supplies flowing.
Russia's response has been twofold and revealing. The government announced plans to waive import duties of 5 percent on gasoline sourced from China, South Korea, and Singapore, while simultaneously proposing increased purchases from Belarus. In a separate move aimed at stretching existing fuel stocks, Moscow authorized the temporary use of monomethyl aniline, an octane-boosting additive, in fuel production for a six-month period. These are not the actions of a nation with surplus energy capacity. They are the moves of a government scrambling to prevent shortages from cascading into broader economic disruption.
The human consequences are already visible on the ground. Several regions across Russia are experiencing gas shortages. Authorities in Crimea have imposed fuel rationing and frozen prices in an attempt to manage scarcity. These are not abstract policy adjustments—they represent real constraints on civilian movement and commerce. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been explicit about the strategic intent behind the campaign. "The most effective sanctions—the ones that work the fastest—are the fires at Russia's oil refineries, its terminals, oil depots," he said in a mid-September address to the Ukrainian people. He framed the broader conflict in energy terms: "Russia's war is essentially a function of oil, of gas, of all its other energy resources."
Moscow's official posture remains one of controlled management. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters on Wednesday that overall domestic fuel supply remains under control, though he acknowledged "some problems with supplies across some regions." He described the situation as being handled "in manual mode"—a phrase that suggests constant intervention and problem-solving rather than the smooth operation of normal systems. The gap between Novak's reassurance and the visible rationing in Crimea, the import duties being waived, and the authorization of chemical additives suggests the crisis is deeper than official statements acknowledge.
What makes this moment significant is not merely the damage to individual refineries, but the structural vulnerability it has exposed. Russia's energy infrastructure, which has long been central to both its domestic economy and its ability to fund military operations, now requires active management to prevent shortages from spreading. As winter approaches—a season that historically strains fuel supplies—the question is whether the combination of Asian imports, Belarusian supplies, and chemical workarounds will prove sufficient, or whether regional rationing becomes the new normal across Russian territory.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
The most effective sanctions—the ones that work the fastest—are the fires at Russia's oil refineries, its terminals, oil depots. Russia's war is essentially a function of oil, of gas, of all its other energy resources.— Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, mid-September address
We are witnessing some problems with supplies across some regions, while the energy ministry and the regions are jointly solving the problems in manual mode.— Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak
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