Time is not necessarily on Putin's side
In the spring of 2026, retired American military commanders offered a measured but significant verdict: Ukraine had seized the operational initiative in its war with Russia. The shift was not born of grand maneuver or diplomatic breakthrough, but of ingenuity — a quiet revolution in drone warfare that was strangling Russian logistics and reshaping the arithmetic of attrition. History reminds us that wars are rarely won in a single season, and the generals were careful to say so; yet in the slow, grinding ledger of modern conflict, momentum is its own kind of power.
- Ukraine has reclaimed 600 square kilometers in 2026, with its top general pointing to fierce fighting around Oleksandrivka and Huliaipole as proof that the front is moving — however slowly — in Kyiv's favor.
- The real disruption is technological: Ukrainian mid-range drones now strike 50 to 100 kilometers behind Russian lines every single day, hitting ammunition depots, command posts, and vehicle stockpiles that once felt safely out of reach.
- Over 90% of Russian casualties are now attributed to Ukrainian drone strikes, a figure that signals not just battlefield lethality but a fundamental reordering of how this war is being fought.
- Military analysts warn the gains are fragile — 'reversible,' in the words of retired Lt. Gen. Ashley — and entirely contingent on continued Western support, Ukrainian innovation, and Putin's willingness to escalate further.
- With both sides still believing victory is possible, ceasefire talks remain a distant abstraction, and the war grinds forward into a new phase whose ending no one can yet read.
In the spring of 2026, several retired American military leaders told CBS News something striking: Ukraine was winning — not in the sense of imminent triumph, but in the daily calculus of a grinding modern war. Ukraine's top general, Oleksandr Syrski, had announced the recapture of 600 square kilometers that year, with the hardest fighting concentrated in the southeast. Retired Lt. Gen. Robert Ashley, former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, put it in military terms: Ukraine was defeating Russian operational objectives and preserving its own freedom of action.
The engine of this shift was the drone. Short-range FPV drones had already transformed the front lines, accounting for more than 90 percent of Russian casualties. But the real breakthrough came with mid-range systems capable of striking 50 to 100 kilometers behind enemy lines — a gap that had long haunted Ukrainian planners. A specialized unit within the elite Khartiia Brigade had made closing that gap their mission, and they had succeeded. Analyst Rob Lee, a former U.S. Marine based in Ukraine, described the change plainly: Ukraine simply hadn't had this capacity the year before, and the quantities of drones being deployed were only growing. The effect was cumulative — ammunition warehouses, command posts, and supply convoys degraded week by week, slowly strangling what reached the Russian front.
Yet the generals were careful not to overstate the moment. Ashley called Ukraine's gains fragile and reversible, entirely dependent on how far Putin chose to escalate. Lee was direct: the situation had improved, but no breakthrough was coming. Retired Gen. Joseph Ralston offered the starkest framing — Russia lacked the conventional strength to seize all it wanted, and Ukraine lacked the strength to reclaim all it had lost. In that mutual exhaustion, neither side was truly winning.
Still, the momentum belonged to Kyiv, and both sides remained convinced enough of eventual victory that ceasefire remained unthinkable. In a war of attrition, where will and resources are the real battlefield, time was not obviously on Moscow's side. Whether Ukraine's hard-won advantage would hold depended on factors far beyond the front lines — American resolve, European unity, and the calculations of a man in the Kremlin. The war had entered a new phase. Its ending remained out of sight.
In the spring of 2026, several retired American military leaders sat down with CBS News and offered a stark assessment: Ukraine was winning. Not in the sense of imminent victory or territorial restoration—those remained distant prospects—but in the grinding, day-to-day calculus of modern warfare. Ukraine's top general, Oleksandr Syrski, had just announced that his forces had reclaimed 600 square kilometers of territory so far that year, with the fiercest fighting concentrated in the country's southeast, around Oleksandrivka and Huliaipole. The gains were real, if modest against the scale of what had been lost.
Retired Lt. Gen. Robert Ashley, who had led the Defense Intelligence Agency, framed it in military language: Ukraine was "defeating enemy operational objectives, creating conditions for follow-on operations and preserving freedom of action." Two other retired generals echoed his view. On the front lines, they said, Ukraine was outmaneuvering Russia. But the real story lay not in the territory itself but in how Ukraine was taking it—and how that method was reshaping the entire conflict.
The weapon driving this shift was the drone. Since 2023, Ukraine had built an arsenal of short-range, first-person-view drones—small, agile machines piloted by operators who could see through the camera mounted on the aircraft. These FPV drones now accounted for more than 90 percent of Russian casualties, according to Ukraine's President. But the breakthrough came in extending that reach. Beginning in 2024, Ukraine deployed long-range drones and cruise missiles that could strike targets hundreds of miles away, hitting military bases in St. Petersburg, more than 600 miles from Ukraine's borders. The gap that had haunted Ukrainian forces—the inability to reliably hit targets between 30 and 60 miles behind enemy lines—had largely closed. A specialized research unit within Ukraine's elite Khartiia Brigade had made it their top priority, and they had solved it.
Rob Lee, a military analyst based in Ukraine and a former U.S. Marine Corps officer, described the transformation plainly: "Ukraine just lacked this capacity last year, the ability to hit targets at 50 to 100 kilometers past the front line. They're doing that very often, basically every day now. And the quantities of these drones they're using is only going to increase." The implications rippled through the entire Russian supply chain. By targeting ammunition warehouses, command posts, and vehicle stockpiles, Ukraine was not just inflicting casualties—it was strangling the logistics that kept Russian offensives alive. Over time, Lee said, "it's going to degrade what gets to the front line."
Yet both Lee and Ashley sounded a note of caution. Ukraine's operational successes, they warned, were not the same as strategic victory. "All of this is reversible and fragile at best depending on how much Putin wants to escalate," Ashley said. Lee was more blunt: "The situation has gotten better for Ukraine, but I don't think we're going to see a breakthrough." Retired Gen. Joseph Ralston, a former supreme allied commander in Europe, offered a different calculus altogether. Russia, he said, lacked the strength to seize all the territory it wanted without nuclear weapons, while Ukraine lacked the strength to reclaim what it had lost. In that stalemate, no one was winning.
Still, the recent momentum belonged to Kyiv. Both sides remained convinced they could win, which meant neither would seriously consider a ceasefire. And in a war of attrition, where resources and will are the true battleground, time was not necessarily on Moscow's side. Ukraine had found a way to make its smaller force count. Whether that advantage would hold depended on factors far beyond the front lines—on American support, on European resolve, on Putin's appetite for further escalation. The war had entered a new phase, but its ending remained obscured.
Citações Notáveis
Ukraine is defeating enemy operational objectives, creating conditions for follow-on operations and preserving freedom of action— Retired Lt. Gen. Robert Ashley, former Defense Intelligence Agency director
Ukraine just lacked this capacity last year. They're doing that very often, basically every day now. And the quantities of these drones they're using is only going to increase.— Rob Lee, military analyst and former U.S. Marine Corps officer
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
When these generals say Ukraine is "winning," what do they actually mean? It sounds like they're being careful with their words.
They are. They're distinguishing between operational success—what happens on the battlefield day to day—and strategic victory, which would mean Ukraine reclaiming its territory and forcing Russia to leave. Right now Ukraine is winning the first one. They're taking ground, they're inflicting casualties, they're disrupting Russian supply lines. But that doesn't mean they're on a path to the second kind of winning.
The drones seem to be the real story here. How much has that technology actually changed things?
It's changed everything about how the fighting happens. A year ago, Ukraine couldn't reliably hit targets more than 30 miles behind the front. Now they're doing it every day, hundreds of miles away. That's not just a tactical shift—it means Russia can't safely position its ammunition, its command centers, its troops anywhere. The entire way they wage war has to adapt.
But if Ukraine has this advantage now, why are the experts so cautious about saying they'll win?
Because advantages in war are fragile. They depend on sustained support, on the other side not escalating, on political will holding steady. Ashley specifically said this could all reverse if Putin decides to escalate further. And Lee pointed out that even with better drones, Ukraine still can't retake the territory Russia holds. It's a stalemate that favors Ukraine slightly, not a path to victory.
So what happens next?
Both sides still believe they can win, which means neither will negotiate. The war becomes a test of endurance—whose economy breaks first, whose people tire first, whose allies stay committed. Ukraine has momentum now, but momentum isn't the same as destiny.