Both sides keep fighting while exploring off-ramps
On the 1,502nd day of a war that has reshaped Europe's moral and material foundations, Slovakia's Robert Fico called on the European Union to abandon its sanctions on Russian energy — a position that reveals how global crises, including a separate conflict in the Gulf, are fracturing the continent's hard-won solidarity. While diplomats in Istanbul and Washington prepare calendars for peace talks, drones continue to fall on Ukrainian markets and civilian cars, reminding the world that the distance between negotiation and ceasefire is measured not in days but in lives.
- A historic oil supply disruption triggered by US-Israeli strikes on Iran has handed Fico and Orbán a political opening to argue that Europe must resume buying Russian energy — splitting the bloc at a moment of acute vulnerability.
- Zelenskyy is quietly repositioning Ukraine from supplicant to strategic partner, offering Turkey military expertise and technology in exchange for Ankara's continued role as a peace broker.
- US envoys Kushner and Witkoff are expected in Kyiv in April, their first official visit to the Ukrainian capital, in an attempt to restart peace negotiations that stalled when the Gulf crisis erupted.
- Russia fired 286 drones in a single night, killing at least six civilians including five at a busy Nikopol market on a Saturday morning — a deliberate shift toward daytime strikes on civilian life.
- The gap between diplomatic momentum and battlefield reality is widening: talks are being scheduled even as the civilian death toll climbs and Russia intensifies rather than restrains its attacks.
On the 1,502nd day of the war, Slovakia's prime minister Robert Fico broke with European consensus by calling on the EU to lift sanctions on Russian oil and gas. Speaking after talks with Hungary's Viktor Orbán, Fico framed the move as practical necessity — Europe, he argued, needs energy from every available source. The two leaders remain a minority within the bloc, but they see in the current crisis a genuine opening. That crisis has an unexpected origin: US and Israeli military operations against Iran, launched on February 28, triggered what the International Energy Agency has called the worst oil supply disruption in recorded history, sending prices sharply higher across the continent.
Ukraine, meanwhile, is working a different set of levers. Zelenskyy traveled to Istanbul to meet Erdoğan, announcing a deepened security partnership and positioning Kyiv as a strategic asset — a country with hard-won military expertise to offer, not merely a nation in need of rescue. Erdoğan reaffirmed Turkey's ambition to serve as a mediator between Kyiv and Moscow. On the diplomatic calendar, US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to make their first official visit to the Ukrainian capital in April, possibly joined by Lindsey Graham, in an effort to revive stalled peace talks.
But the ground tells a different story. On Saturday morning at 9:50 a.m., a Russian drone struck a covered market in Nikopol, killing five people — three women and two men — and wounding 25 others. It was one strike among many: Russia launched 286 drones overnight, of which Ukrainian defenses intercepted 260. Strikes also hit Sumy, Kyiv, and the Donetsk region, where a woman was killed in her car. Analysts noted that Russia has increasingly shifted toward daytime attacks on civilian targets, a deliberate escalation beyond the nighttime pattern that defined much of the four-year invasion. Diplomats are filling their calendars. The drones are not waiting.
On day 1,502 of the war, Slovakia's prime minister Robert Fico broke ranks with European consensus. After speaking with his Hungarian counterpart Viktor Orbán, Fico called for the EU to lift sanctions on Russian oil and gas, arguing that doing so would ease the energy crisis now gripping the continent. The two leaders represent a minority position within the bloc—most EU members have maintained the sanctions regime despite the economic pain. But Fico and Orbán have continued cultivating ties with Moscow, and they see in the current crisis an opening to push for a reversal.
The energy crunch itself stems from a different war entirely. On February 28, the US and Israel launched military operations against Iran, disrupting shipments from the Gulf and creating what the International Energy Agency has described as the worst oil supply disruption in recorded history. Oil prices have climbed sharply in response. For Fico, the solution is straightforward: Europe should resume buying Russian energy to fill the gap. He framed it as a matter of practical necessity—member states need supplies from all available sources, Russia included.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is pursuing a different diplomatic track. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Istanbul on Saturday and announced a deepening security partnership between the two countries. Zelenskyy emphasized that Ukraine could offer Turkey expertise, technology, and wartime experience—a subtle repositioning of Kyiv as a strategic asset rather than simply a victim seeking aid. Erdoğan, for his part, reiterated Turkey's commitment to facilitating negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, signaling that Ankara intends to remain a broker in any future peace process.
The diplomatic calendar is filling. Kyrylo Budanov, Zelenskyy's top aide, told Bloomberg that US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner could arrive in Kyiv in April, possibly shortly after Orthodox Easter on April 12. Lindsey Graham may also be part of the delegation. Budanov framed the visit as an effort to revive peace talks that have stalled since the outbreak of fighting in the Gulf. For Witkoff and Kushner, it would mark their first official trip to the Ukrainian capital, though both have previously met with Russian officials in Moscow.
Yet on the ground, the war continued its brutal rhythm. A Russian drone struck a covered market in Nikopol, in the Dnipropetrovsk region, at 9:50 a.m. on Saturday. Five people were killed—three women and two men—and 25 others were wounded. The attack was one of many. Russia fired 286 drones overnight; Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 260 of them. In Sumy, near the Russian border, a strike wounded 11 people. In Kyiv, a drone hit an office and warehouse building, starting a fire but causing no deaths. In the partially occupied Donetsk region, a drone strike killed a woman in a civilian car and wounded another.
The Russian-installed administrator of occupied Luhansk claimed that Ukrainian forces had struck railroad infrastructure and private homes in the region, killing a family of three—a couple and their eight-year-old child. The claim could not be independently verified. What was clear was that Russia has intensified its daytime drone attacks in recent weeks, moving beyond the pattern of mostly nighttime strikes that had characterized much of the four-year invasion. The civilian toll continues to mount even as diplomats prepare for talks that might, someday, bring the fighting to an end.
Notable Quotes
This applies above all to the areas in which we can support Turkey: expertise, technology and experience— President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, on security cooperation with Turkey
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why would Fico push for lifting sanctions now, when the energy crisis isn't really about Russia?
Because it's leverage. The crisis is real, the pain is real, and most of Europe is scrambling. Fico sees an opening to normalize relations with Moscow without looking like he's simply capitulating—he can frame it as pragmatism.
And does lifting sanctions actually solve the energy problem?
Not really. The Gulf disruption is the bottleneck. But that's almost beside the point. Fico gets to position himself as a problem-solver, and Russia gets a diplomatic win. The actual energy math is secondary.
What about Zelenskyy meeting Erdoğan? Is that a sign Ukraine is losing faith in Western support?
Not losing faith—diversifying. Turkey has leverage with Russia that the West doesn't. And Zelenskyy is signaling that Ukraine has become a valuable partner in its own right, not just a dependent. It's a shift in how he's positioning the country.
The drone attacks seem to be getting worse, not better. How does that square with peace talks?
It doesn't, really. Russia is escalating even as diplomats are scheduling meetings. It's a common pattern—both sides keep fighting while exploring off-ramps. The question is whether the fighting will slow down enough for talks to actually take hold.
Do you think Kushner and Witkoff will actually make it to Kyiv?
Probably. The fact that Budanov is naming them publicly suggests the trip is already being coordinated. But whether they accomplish anything is another matter entirely.