Russia still moves the oil, but at prices so discounted the total revenue has fallen
Four years into a war that has reshaped the global energy order, Russia continues to export crude oil in volumes exceeding pre-invasion levels, even as Western sanctions have forced deep price discounts that erode Moscow's revenues. The paradox reveals the limits of economic pressure: walls can be built, yet determined actors find the doors left ajar. Meanwhile, Europe's solidarity fractures at its edges, Ukraine quietly weaves itself into the industrial fabric of its allies, and the violence that began this reckoning continues to wound the living on all sides.
- Russia ships 6% more oil than before the invasion, exposing a critical gap between sanctions in theory and enforcement in practice.
- Hungary's veto of fresh EU sanctions packages threatens to unravel the coordinated Western response at the very moment European leaders gather in Kyiv to mark four years of full-scale war.
- Ukraine refuses the posture of mere survival — its first domestically designed drone rolled off a German production line, with joint ventures advancing in Finland and Denmark, embedding the country's economy into European networks.
- Violence punctuates every diplomatic maneuver: a bomb kills a Moscow police officer at a major transit hub, drone strikes wound five in Zaporizhzhia including a child, and an explosion critically injures two officers in Mykolaiv.
- Britain commits £50 million in military and humanitarian aid while Slovakia withholds emergency electricity over a pipeline dispute, illustrating how energy dependency continues to fracture allied cohesion.
- After 1,462 days, the sanctions have altered the financial calculus without altering the fundamental trajectory — the war, the oil, and the fractures all persist.
Four years into the war, Russia's oil trade embodies a paradox that Western policy has only partially resolved. A Finnish research institute found this week that Russian crude exports run 6% above pre-invasion volumes — yet revenues have fallen below pre-war levels because Moscow must sell at steep discounts to willing buyers. Sanctions targeted the shadow fleet of aging tankers Russia uses to circumvent restrictions, and the financial pressure is real. But analyst Isaac Levi, co-author of the report, warned that loopholes remain open and Russia has found ways around the barriers erected against it.
In Brussels, the unity that effective sanctions demand showed fresh cracks. Hungary's Viktor Orbán blocked a new EU sanctions package on Monday, along with a loan intended to support Ukraine's military and financial needs, just as European leaders prepared fourth-anniversary visits to Kyiv. Poland's Donald Tusk called it political sabotage. The obstruction threatened to overshadow a carefully planned show of solidarity, with European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen among those expected in the Ukrainian capital.
Ukraine, for its part, was demonstrating a different kind of endurance. Its first domestically designed drone had just come off a production line in Germany, with joint ventures also advancing in Finland and Denmark. Rather than simply absorbing the war's punishment, Ukrainian businesses were migrating production across borders and integrating into European industrial networks — an economy finding new shapes under pressure.
The human cost accumulated without pause. In central Moscow, a man detonated an explosive beside a police patrol car near Savyolovsky railway station, killing one officer and wounding two others before dying at the scene. In Zaporizhzhia, overnight drone strikes wounded five people including a child and set a factory building ablaze beside a residential block. In Mykolaiv, an explosion wounded seven police officers, two critically.
Britain announced a £50 million package combining emergency energy support and accountability efforts tied to alleged Russian war crimes. Slovakia's prime minister said his country's grid operator would withhold emergency electricity from Ukraine until oil resumed flowing through the Druzhba pipeline — a threat Ukraine's national power company dismissed as inconsequential. After 1,462 days, the sanctions had changed the math. The outcome remained unresolved.
Four years into the war, Russia's oil business tells a story of resilience and constraint at once. The country is shipping more crude than it did before the 2022 invasion—6% higher in volume—yet the money flowing back to Moscow's war chest has shrunk. A Finnish research institute called the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air released the finding this week, laying bare a paradox that Western sanctions have only partially solved: Russia still moves the oil, but at prices so discounted that the total revenue has fallen below pre-war levels.
The sanctions were meant to cripple Russia's ability to sell. Western nations targeted the so-called shadow fleet, the aging tankers and converted vessels that Russia uses to dodge restrictions on direct sales. The strategy has worked in one sense. Isaac Levi, an analyst at the research center and co-author of the report, acknowledged that fossil fuel export earnings have dropped significantly because of new enforcement measures. But he also sounded a warning: the loopholes remain. Countries have not closed every door. Russia found ways around the walls that were built, and the volume of crude leaving Russian ports stayed stubbornly high.
Meanwhile, in Brussels, the unity that sanctions require began to fracture. Hungary's prime minister, Viktor Orbán, blocked a fresh package of EU sanctions against Moscow on Monday, just as European leaders were preparing to visit Kyiv for the fourth anniversary of the full-scale invasion. Germany, France, and other member states could not persuade Budapest to approve the measures or a loan meant to help Ukraine meet its military and financial needs. Poland's prime minister, Donald Tusk, called it political sabotage. The row threatened to overshadow what was meant to be a carefully choreographed show of solidarity, with figures like European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen expected to travel to Kyiv on Tuesday.
Yet Ukraine itself was showing a different kind of resilience. The country's first domestically designed drone, manufactured in a German factory, had just rolled off the line. Joint ventures were advancing in Finland and Denmark as well. These were not the moves of a nation simply enduring war. Ukrainian businesses were adapting, moving production across borders, integrating into European industrial networks. The economy, strained and threatened, was finding new shapes.
On the ground, the violence continued without pause. A man detonated an explosive device beside a police patrol car in central Moscow early Tuesday morning, killing one officer and wounding two others. The blast happened at Savyolovsky railway station square in northern Moscow, one of the capital's main transit hubs. The attacker died at the scene. Authorities offered no immediate details about the device or motive.
In Ukraine, Russian drone strikes hit the southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia overnight, wounding five people including a child. One drone struck a factory building next to a nine-story residential block, igniting a fire that spread across more than 200 square meters. In Mykolaiv to the south, an explosion wounded seven police officers, two of them critically. The incident came two days after a similar blast in the western city of Lviv, which Kyiv had denounced as a Russian terrorist attack.
Britain announced a new military and humanitarian package for Ukraine worth £50 million total—£20 million for emergency energy support and £30 million for societal resilience and accountability efforts related to alleged Russian war crimes. Slovakia's prime minister, Robert Fico, said his country's power grid operator would refuse emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine until oil resumed flowing through the Druzhba pipeline, which runs from Russia through Ukrainian territory to central Europe. Ukraine's national power company responded that such a refusal would have no effect on the country's power system.
The war had now lasted 1,462 days. Russia's oil still flowed. Europe's unity still wavered. Ukraine's economy still adapted. The sanctions had changed the math but not the outcome—not yet.
Notable Quotes
There are still significant loopholes and areas that have been unaddressed by sanctioning countries, allowing volumes to remain high.— Isaac Levi, analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air
Political sabotage— Donald Tusk, Poland's prime minister, describing Hungary's veto of EU sanctions
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
How does Russia keep exporting more oil when the whole point of sanctions was to stop that?
The shadow fleet. Old tankers, converted ships, vessels that operate in the gaps between what's forbidden and what's enforced. Russia found the cracks in the wall.
But if they're selling more volume, shouldn't revenues be higher?
Not when you're forced to sell at a steep discount. The buyer knows you have nowhere else to go. The price collapses even as the tankers keep moving.
So sanctions worked, just not in the way people expected.
Partially. They hurt the money side. But the researchers are saying there are still significant loopholes. The enforcement isn't tight enough. Countries haven't closed every door.
What about the drones being made in Germany? That seems like a different kind of adaptation.
It is. Ukraine isn't just surviving the war—it's using it to rewire its economy. Moving production out of range, integrating into European supply chains. That's not desperation. That's strategy.
And Hungary blocking sanctions undermines all of that.
It does. One country can slow the entire mechanism. That's the vulnerability of consensus-based systems when one member decides solidarity is negotiable.