Strength is needed on the path to peace
One thousand one hundred days into a war that has reshaped the European order, Ukrainian forces reclaimed a village near Pokrovsk that Russia spent a year and countless lives trying to hold, while diplomats in Washington and London race to answer the question that outlasts every ceasefire: who will guarantee that peace, once achieved, will hold. Zelenskyy travels to meet Trump on Friday carrying both a battlefield momentum and a draft agreement conspicuously silent on the security commitments Europe considers indispensable. The gap between what is being signed and what is needed to prevent history from repeating itself has become the central anxiety of the moment.
- Ukraine's counterattack at Kotlyne reversed a year of Russian pressure near Pokrovsk, where ISW now assesses Moscow's direct assault has effectively collapsed under the weight of its own losses.
- Russia struck back with drones across Ukrainian cities, killing at least seven civilians including a journalist near Kyiv, while claiming recaptured settlements in Kursk where Ukraine has held Russian territory for seven months.
- A draft US-Ukraine agreement expected to be signed Friday contains no concrete security guarantees — only placeholder language — alarming European leaders who warn this leaves the door open to future invasion.
- Zelenskyy insists security guarantees are non-negotiable, while Trump suggests Europe should provide them and that NATO membership for Ukraine is off the table, leaving a fundamental disagreement unresolved at the eleventh hour.
- A compressed diplomatic sprint — Washington Friday, London over the weekend — reflects a scramble to align European and American positions before any framework is finalized.
On the 1,100th day of the war, Ukrainian troops recaptured Kotlyne, a village near Pokrovsk that Russian forces had fought to seize for nearly a year at staggering cost. The Institute for the Study of War concluded that Russia's direct assault on Pokrovsk itself has stalled, with commanders apparently shifting to an encirclement strategy that also appears to be faltering. Russia's defence ministry, meanwhile, claimed the recapture of two settlements in Kursk oblast, the Russian territory Ukraine has occupied since August 2024 — a buffer zone Zelenskyy noted his forces have now held for nearly seven months.
Both sides continued striking infrastructure. Ukrainian forces hit the Tuapse oil refinery on Russia's Black Sea coast, recording dozens of explosions, and attacked military airfields in Crimea. Russian drones killed at least five civilians in Kostyantynivka and two more near Kyiv, among them Tetiana Kulyk, a journalist for the Ukrinform news agency. Kharkiv and the Dnipropetrovsk region also absorbed strikes.
Yet the battlefield developments have been overshadowed by a diplomatic fault line opening just as Zelenskyy prepares to meet Trump in Washington. A draft US-Ukraine agreement expected to be signed Friday contains no security guarantees — only vague language suggesting they might be obtained later. European leaders, including Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, have warned plainly that any lasting peace requires NATO-backed guarantees, without which nothing prevents the cycle of devastation from beginning again.
Zelenskyy has called security guarantees non-negotiable, framing the Trump framework as a foundation to be built upon jointly with Europe. Trump has suggested Europe bear that responsibility and signaled NATO membership for Ukraine is not on offer. From Washington, Zelenskyy will travel to London to meet Keir Starmer and other European leaders — a sequence that reads as a last effort to close the guarantees gap before any agreement is finalized.
On day 1,100 of the war, Ukrainian troops moved to reclaim ground near Pokrovsk, one of the eastern front's most contested cities. The settlement of Kotlyne, which Russian forces had spent a year trying to capture at enormous cost, fell back under Ukrainian control on Wednesday following a successful counterattack. The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russia's long campaign to seize Pokrovsk itself has effectively stalled. Russian commanders appear to have abandoned the direct assault on the city and shifted instead to a wider encirclement strategy—though even that effort may now be faltering under the weight of Ukrainian resistance and the staggering losses Moscow has absorbed in the attempt.
Meanwhile, Russia's defence ministry announced it had retaken two settlements—Pogrebki and Orlovka—in Kursk oblast, the Russian territory Ukraine has occupied since August 2024. The ministry claimed strikes on Ukrainian positions near a dozen more settlements in the region. Zelenskyy, in his nightly address, marked the milestone: Ukrainian forces have now held this buffer zone inside Russian territory for nearly seven months, he said, as if the occupation had become almost routine.
Both sides continued their assault on infrastructure. Ukrainian forces struck the Tuapse oil refinery on Russia's Black Sea coast, recording at least 40 explosions at the facility, one of Russia's largest. They also attacked military airfields in Crimea. Russia confirmed the drone strikes on its southern regions and reported additional attacks on Bryansk and Kursk. The toll on civilians mounted: Russian strikes killed at least five people in Kostyantynivka in the east and wounded eight more. Near Kyiv, two people died in a drone attack, among them Tetiana Kulyk, a journalist for the Ukrinform news agency. Two more were wounded in Kharkiv. Ukraine's largest private energy company reported damage to one of its facilities in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
But the military picture, however significant, has been overshadowed by a diplomatic gap that has emerged just as Zelenskyy prepares to meet Trump in Washington. A draft agreement between the United States and Ukraine, expected to be signed Friday, contains no security guarantees—only vague language suggesting Ukraine would somehow obtain them. This omission has alarmed European leaders. Giorgia Meloni, Italy's prime minister, stated plainly that any peace deal must include security guarantees involving NATO, which she called the Atlantic alliance. Without them, she warned, there is no assurance that the devastation of the past three years will not repeat.
Zelenskyy has insisted that security guarantees remain non-negotiable. He said the framework being negotiated with Trump would serve as a foundation for guarantees to be worked out jointly with the United States and Europe. Trump, for his part, suggested Europe should provide those guarantees and that Ukraine should abandon hopes of NATO membership. Zelenskyy emphasized that American support cannot be allowed to stop and that strength is essential on the path to peace.
The diplomatic calendar is now compressed. Zelenskyy is expected in Washington on Friday for talks with Trump. From there, he plans to travel to London over the weekend for meetings with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and other European leaders. Starmer will convene that meeting after his own visit to Washington to see Trump. The sequence suggests an attempt to align European and American positions before any agreement is finalized—a race against time to fill the security guarantees hole before the ink dries.
Notable Quotes
The year-long Russian effort to seize Pokrovsk has so far failed, and Russian forces appear to have abandoned the effort to take the city directly.— Institute for the Study of War
Peace in Ukraine can only be achieved if Kyiv is given adequate security guarantees to make sure that what we have seen over the past three years does not happen again.— Giorgia Meloni, Italian Prime Minister
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Pokrovsk matter so much that Russia has spent a year trying to take it?
It's a major city in the Donetsk region, a hub for supply lines and civilian evacuation. If Russia takes it, they break through to the Dnipro River and open the path toward the heart of eastern Ukraine. That's why they've bled so much trying.
And now Zelenskyy is heading to Washington with no security guarantees in the draft deal. How does that land with him?
He's walking a knife's edge. He needs Trump's continued support, but he can't sign away Ukraine's future without knowing who will defend it if Russia attacks again. The framework language buys time, but it's not a commitment.
Is Europe actually prepared to step in where NATO won't?
That's the question Meloni and Starmer are trying to answer right now. Europe has been divided on Ukraine for three years. Getting them to speak with one voice on security—and to back it with force—is harder than it sounds.
What happens if the deal is signed without those guarantees?
Ukraine gets a ceasefire, maybe, and a chance to rebuild. But it also becomes a frozen conflict. Russia keeps what it took. And in five years, if the guarantees prove hollow, Moscow might try again.
The journalist killed near Kyiv—was that a targeted strike?
Russia doesn't typically target journalists by name. It was a drone attack on a residential area. But in a war where information is a weapon, the death of someone telling the story matters differently than it might elsewhere.