May was a reprieve, not a recovery.
After a bruising April, Britain's high streets drew shoppers back in May — coaxed out by warmer days and a tentative easing of financial anxiety that had gripped households since conflict in the Middle East sent fuel prices surging. Consumer confidence reached its highest point since 2021, offering retailers a moment of genuine, if cautious, relief. Yet the recovery carries the weight of unresolved pressures: rising energy costs, a closed Strait of Hormuz, and the quiet knowledge that a single warm month does not rewrite a difficult year.
- April's 10.7% year-on-year footfall collapse had left the retail sector reeling, making May's rebound feel both urgent and overdue.
- Stabilising petrol prices and improved household finance perceptions pushed the YouGov-CEBR consumer confidence index to 104.9 — its strongest reading in five years.
- High streets outperformed shopping centres and retail parks, falling just 1.7% year-on-year, as people already outdoors in the heat ducked into nearby shops.
- A record-breaking heatwave in the final week of May capped the recovery, preventing the month from turning positive in absolute terms.
- Retailers are eyeing the World Cup for a further lift, but warn that climbing energy bills and Strait of Hormuz disruptions could erase any gains before summer ends.
The British high street caught a break in May. After shoppers stayed home in droves through April, foot traffic bounced back as warmer weather drew people outdoors and anxieties about household finances began to ease — a sharp reversal from the spending squeeze that had gripped the country since the US-Israel war on Iran erupted in late February.
The data told a story of cautious recovery. BDO reported high street sales grew 3.4% year-on-year, while BRC figures showed footfall still down 2.6% overall — but the improvement from April's catastrophic decline was unmistakable. High streets outperformed shopping centres, falling just 1.7% against the prior year. Consumer confidence, measured by YouGov and CEBR, jumped 2.6 points to 104.9, its highest since 2021, driven by better perceptions of household finances and a stabilisation in petrol prices that had spiked after the Middle East conflict began.
The recovery came with caveats. Record heat in the final week of May suppressed footfall at shopping centres and retail parks, extinguishing any hope of a positive year-on-year figure. The broader economic backdrop remains fragile: the OECD upgraded UK growth to 0.9% for the year, but unemployment has risen unexpectedly to 5% and energy bills are forecast to spike later in 2026.
Retailers are hoping the World Cup will provide a further lift, but BDO's Sophie Michael was measured in her optimism. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and rising energy costs threaten both margins and consumer spending power. May's rebound is real — but whether it marks a genuine turning point or merely a pause before the next squeeze remains an open question.
The British high street caught a break in May. After a brutal April that saw shoppers stay home in droves, foot traffic bounced back last month as warmer weather drew people outdoors and their anxieties about household finances began to ease. The recovery, measured by the British Retail Consortium and accounting firm BDO, marks a sharp reversal from the spending squeeze that gripped the country since the US-Israel war on Iran erupted in late February.
The numbers tell the story of a market finding its footing. BDO reported that total high street sales grew 3.4% compared to May of the previous year. The BRC's data showed a more modest picture—footfall was still down 2.6% year-on-year—but the improvement from April's catastrophic 10.7% decline was unmistakable. Within that overall recovery, high streets themselves performed better than shopping centres and retail parks, declining just 1.7% against the year before, while shopping centres fell 2.4%. Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC, acknowledged the shift: the month represented a significant improvement even if the absolute numbers remained underwater.
What changed? Consumer confidence surged in May by the largest margin since 2021, according to a YouGov and Centre for Economics and Business Research poll released this week. Their confidence index jumped 2.6 points to 104.9—any score above 100 signals positive sentiment. The driver was straightforward: households felt better about their finances. Petrol and diesel prices, which had spiked sharply in the weeks after the Middle East conflict began, had stabilized enough that people stopped bracing for the worst. Perceptions of the housing market also improved, with the outlook index rising from 128.6 to 130.5.
But the recovery came with an asterisk. The final week of May brought record-breaking heat that actually suppressed footfall, particularly at shopping centres and retail parks. Only high streets bucked the trend, as people already out in the weather ducked into nearby shops. Dickinson noted that the temperature spike ended any realistic hope of May posting a positive year-on-year figure.
The broader economic picture remains fragile. The OECD this week upgraded its UK growth forecast to 0.9% for the year—better than the 0.7% it predicted in March—but unemployment has unexpectedly risen to 5%, and energy bills are expected to spike later in the year. Retailers are hoping the World Cup this month will provide another temporary lift, but Sophie Michael, head of retail at BDO, struck a cautious note. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and climbing energy costs threaten to squeeze both retailers' margins and consumer spending power. "The longer-term picture for retailers remains fairly bleak," she said, warning that any boost from summer events would likely be offset by the weight of ongoing uncertainty and rising costs.
For now, May's rebound is real but fragile—a moment of relief in a year defined by shocks. Whether it signals a genuine recovery or merely a pause before the next squeeze remains to be seen.
Notable Quotes
While total UK footfall remained down on last year, it was a significant improvement on April's double-digit drop.— Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium
The longer-term picture for retailers remains fairly bleak; already high costs may go even higher due to the closure of the strait of Hormuz and increasing energy prices.— Sophie Michael, head of retail at BDO
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why did May suddenly reverse April's collapse? Was it just the weather?
Partly, yes—the sunshine mattered. But the bigger shift was psychological. Petrol prices had spiked when the Iran conflict started in late February, and by May people had stopped panicking about them. Household confidence actually improved measurably.
So the geopolitical shock wore off?
Not entirely. The shock wore off enough that people felt safe spending again. But the underlying vulnerabilities—energy costs, the Strait of Hormuz closure, unemployment rising to 5%—those are still there.
High streets outperformed shopping centres. Why the difference?
High streets are local, walkable, spontaneous. In May's heat wave, people already outside would pop into a nearby shop. Shopping centres and retail parks require deliberate trips, and the heat deterred that.
The OECD upgraded growth forecasts. Is the worst over?
Not necessarily. They upgraded from 0.7% to 0.9%, which is still modest. And that forecast was made before energy bills are expected to rise sharply later this year. May was a reprieve, not a recovery.
What are retailers actually worried about?
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz will push energy costs higher. If that happens, consumers will tighten spending again. May's confidence boost could evaporate quickly.
So the World Cup this month—is that real hope?
It's a hope, not a certainty. Retailers need it. But they're bracing for challenges ahead, not expecting a sustained turnaround.