Uganda Needs $78.1 Billion for Climate Commitments, 85% Expected From External Sources

Climate change is threatening agricultural productivity and increasing vulnerability among poor communities dependent on climate-sensitive livelihoods.
Uganda is an adaptation country. Climate change is already with us here.
Margaret Athieno Mwebesa explains why Uganda is seeking $78.1 billion for climate action over eight years.
Mark

Start with the headline number. $78.1 billion over eight years. How does that break down?

Mimi

Adaptation is about $17.7 billion and mitigation about $10.4 billion, according to Margaret Athieno Mwebesa. The ministry also says Uganda needs at least $5 billion a year.

Luke

Those two pieces add up to $28.1 billion, not $78.1 billion. The reporting doesn't say what covers the rest. I'd flag that as unexplained.

Mark

Fair. And what has Uganda actually raised?

Mimi

$447.4 million in 2021, $483.9 million in 2022, and $272.6 million in 2023. For 2024/25 the estimate is about $500 million.

Luke

Note that last one is an estimate, not a recorded total. And the source doesn't say whether the earlier years count only climate-specific finance or something broader.

Mark

Why does the 85% external share matter?

Mimi

Only 15% is expected from domestic resources, so Uganda's plans depend heavily on international partners and private investors. That's why the minister and Mwebesa keep stressing projects that can attract financing.

Luke

Right, but the 85% is an expectation from the ministry, not a commitment from any donor. Nothing in the reporting says anyone has pledged it.

Mark

So what does the new platform change?

Mimi

It's meant to coordinate the ministries and the planning authority, remove barriers to accessing finance, and turn policies into bankable projects in nature, energy, agriculture and tourism.

Luke

Those are stated aims. No timeline, budget or first projects were given, so whether it closes the gap is still unknown.

  • Climate finance mobilised fell from $483.9 million in 2022 to $272.6 million in 2023, while the annual target stands at $5 billion.
  • Uganda must find 85% of its $78.1 billion climate bill from outside its borders, leaving it deeply exposed to donor and investor decisions.
  • Officials say the country has the policies already; what is missing is a pipeline of bankable projects that investors will commit to.
  • A new platform spanning government ministries, financiers and civil society is being launched to coordinate efforts across nature, energy, agriculture and tourism.
  • Farmers and poor communities face mounting pressure on agriculture, water, wetlands and forests, making delay costly.

Uganda has put a number on a question that many climate-exposed nations now face: what it will cost to live with a changing climate and to slow the forces driving it. Its government estimates that $78.1 billion will be needed over the next eight years, most of it expected to arrive from abroad, while the sums actually gathered have been falling rather than rising. The figure was presented at the launch of the Uganda Climate Investment Platform, an attempt to turn long-written policy into projects that financiers can actually fund. For a country whose farmers and poorest communities feel the weather first, the coming years will show whether ambition can be translated into money that reaches the ground.

Uganda says it will need about $78.1 billion over the next eight years to meet its climate commitments, and the Ministry of Water and Environment expects 85 percent of that to come from outside the country. The figure was laid out at the launch of the Uganda Climate Investment Platform, a government-led effort to bring order to the country's climate financing.

Margaret Athieno Mwebesa, the Country Platform Coordinator for Climate Action Uganda, divided the bill between adaptation, the work of coping with changes already under way, which needs about $17.7 billion, and mitigation, the cutting of greenhouse gas emissions, which needs $10.4 billion. She said the country must mobilise at least $5 billion a year, and that current funding falls far short. "Uganda is an adaptation country," she said. "Climate change is already with us here."

The gap is stark. Mobilised funds reached $483.9 million in 2022 but fell to $272.6 million in 2023, and the 2024/25 estimate of about $500 million is a tenth of the annual target. Only 15 percent of needs is expected from domestic resources.

Minister Kahinda Otafiire warned that without deliberate investment in climate-resilient programmes, growth and farm productivity could be constrained and the poor and those in fragile ecosystems left more exposed. Mwebesa noted that Uganda already has its policy frameworks; what it lacks is a pipeline of bankable projects. The platform, jointly driven by three state institutions, aims to improve coordination, speed disbursement and draw in private capital across four initial sectors: nature, energy, agriculture and tourism. Its success will be judged by whether those projects materialise and whether annual mobilisation climbs from hundreds of millions toward the $5 billion target.

Uganda says it will need $78.1 billion, roughly Shs320.6 trillion, over the next eight years to deliver on its climate commitments. The Ministry of Water and Environment expects 85% of that money to come from outside the country. The figure was set out at the launch of the Uganda Climate Investment Platform, a government-led effort to coordinate climate financing.

Margaret Athieno Mwebesa, the Country Platform Coordinator for Climate Action Uganda, broke the total down. Adaptation, the work of coping with changes already under way, needs about $17.7 billion (around Shs72.7 trillion). Mitigation, meaning measures to cut greenhouse gas emissions, needs another $10.4 billion (about Shs42.7 trillion). She said Uganda must mobilise at least $5 billion a year (about Shs20.5 trillion), and that current funding sits below that mark. "Uganda is an adaptation country," she said. "Climate change is already with us here. We need to adapt."

The numbers she presented show how wide the gap is. Uganda mobilised $447.4 million (about Shs1.84 trillion) in 2021 and $483.9 million (about Shs1.99 trillion) in 2022. In 2023 the figure fell to $272.6 million (about Shs1.12 trillion). Climate financing for the 2024/25 financial year was estimated at about $500 million (around Shs2.05 trillion), a tenth of the annual target. Only 15% of the country's climate financing needs is expected to be met from domestic resources, which leaves Uganda heavily reliant on international climate finance.

Minister of Water and Environment Kahinda Otafiire framed the stakes in terms of the economy and of people's livelihoods. Climate change, he said, could undermine the country's development aspirations unless government and its partners invest deliberately in climate-resilient programmes. "Without deliberate action, it risks constraining economic growth and widening agricultural productivity, and increasing the vulnerability of our communities, particularly the poor and those in fragile ecosystems," he said. He added that climate change is also adding pressure on water resources, wetlands, forests and infrastructure, which makes investment in adaptation and mitigation more urgent.

Mwebesa said Uganda does not lack policy. Its priorities are already set out in the Nationally Determined Contributions, the National Adaptation Plan, the National Climate Finance Strategy, the Fourth National Development Plan and the Tenfold Growth Strategy. What is missing, she said, is a pipeline of projects that investors will fund. "We now need to turn these into real bankable programmes that will attract sizable financing," she said.

The platform is meant to supply that. It is expected to improve coordination among government institutions, address barriers to accessing climate finance, speed up the disbursement of resources that are available, and draw in more private sector participation. The Ministry of Water and Environment, the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, and the National Planning Authority will drive it jointly. Mwebesa said it will not create parallel government structures. It will strengthen existing institutions and give them a common framework for setting climate investment priorities.

Initially the platform will focus on four sectors. Under nature, investment will go to forests, wetlands, land management and biodiversity conservation. In energy, it will back renewable energy development and the shift to cleaner sources. Agriculture investments will target climate-resilient food systems and agro-processing, while tourism work will centre on sustainable ecotourism and green infrastructure.

Otafiire said these investments also give Uganda a chance to pursue green economic growth through sustainable agriculture, clean energy and nature-based solutions. He said the platform will bring together government agencies, financial institutions, investors, development partners and civil society around shared national priorities rather than duplicating existing programmes. The test will be whether bankable projects emerge from it and whether annual mobilisation moves from the hundreds of millions toward the $5 billion Uganda says it needs.

We now need to turn these into real bankable programmes that will attract sizable financing.
— Margaret Athieno Mwebesa, Country Platform Coordinator, Climate Action Uganda
Climate change could undermine Uganda's development aspirations unless government and partners deliberately invest in climate-resilient programmes.
— Kahinda Otafiire, Minister of Water and Environment (paraphrased)
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