Even when a storm stays offshore, its circulation can reshape the weather inland.
As Typhoon Inday crossed into the East China Sea after five days within Philippine waters, the archipelago found no rest — a new tropical depression was already gathering strength some 1,720 kilometers to the east, poised to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Thursday as potential Typhoon Josie. The Philippines, a nation long acquainted with the rhythms of storm and recovery, now faces not a singular event but a season of sustained vigilance, with forecasters projecting up to eleven cyclones through February 2023. In this part of the world, the departure of one storm is rarely a conclusion — it is merely the pause between verses.
- Typhoon Inday exited Philippine waters just after midnight on September 13, weakening to 140 km/h sustained winds but leaving rough seas and gale warnings still active across the Batanes and Babuyan Islands.
- Even without making landfall, Inday's outer bands disrupted weather across Luzon and the Visayas and amplified the southwest monsoon, a reminder that a storm need not touch ground to leave its mark.
- A new tropical depression is already churning 1,720 kilometers east of Northern Luzon, expected to sharply pivot northwest on Thursday and cross into Philippine waters as a full typhoon named Josie.
- Josie is not forecast to make landfall, but its approach threatens to supercharge monsoon rains over western Luzon and the Visayas, raising flood and landslide risks for communities already on edge.
- PAGASA's seasonal outlook projects seven to eleven cyclones through February 2023, signaling that the Philippines is entering one of the most active stretches of its typhoon calendar.
Typhoon Inday slipped out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility just after midnight on September 13, ending a five-day watch that had kept forecasters and coastal communities on alert. Last tracked 560 kilometers northeast of Batanes and moving steadily toward China, the storm — known internationally as Muifa — had weakened to 140 km/h sustained winds by the time it crossed into the East China Sea. Though it never triggered wind signals over the archipelago, its outer bands brought scattered rains to Luzon and the Visayas and briefly intensified the southwest monsoon.
Inday was the ninth tropical cyclone to affect the Philippines in 2022 and the first of September. Even in departure, it left rough seas behind — waves of 2.8 to 4.5 meters along the Batanes and Babuyan seaboards prompted gale warnings, with fishing vessels ordered to stay in port and larger ships warned of dangerous swells through Wednesday.
But the weather bureau had little time to exhale. PAGASA was already tracking a tropical depression 1,720 kilometers east of Northern Luzon, drifting slowly before an expected sharp turn toward the northwest on Thursday, September 15. The system was forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility that same afternoon or evening, receiving the local name Josie — and likely arriving already at typhoon strength, thanks to improving atmospheric conditions expected to fuel rapid intensification.
Officials were clear that Josie was not on a collision course with populated land. Yet its proximity would still carry consequences: enhanced monsoon rains were expected to drench western portions of Southern Luzon and the Visayas from Wednesday onward, with flooding and landslides a concern for residents in those areas.
Looking further ahead, PAGASA projected between seven and eleven tropical cyclones entering or forming within Philippine waters from September through February 2023, with the heaviest activity concentrated in the coming months. The forecast painted a picture not of isolated emergencies, but of a sustained season demanding sustained readiness.
Typhoon Inday slipped out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility just after midnight on Tuesday, September 13, ending a five-day presence that had kept the nation's weather watchers alert. The storm, known internationally as Muifa, was last tracked 560 kilometers northeast of Itbayat in Batanes, already crossing into the East China Sea and moving steadily toward the coast of China. By early morning, its maximum sustained winds had weakened to 140 kilometers per hour, with gusts reaching 170 km/h, but the system was no longer a direct threat to Philippine land.
Inday had been the ninth tropical cyclone to affect the Philippines in 2022 and the first to arrive in September. During its passage through Philippine waters, the typhoon's peak intensity reached 165 kilometers per hour in sustained winds, yet it managed to stay offshore, never close enough to trigger tropical cyclone wind signals across the archipelago. Instead, its outer bands delivered scattered rain showers and thunderstorms to parts of Luzon and the Visayas, while briefly strengthening the southwest monsoon—the seasonal wind pattern known locally as the habagat.
Even as Inday departed, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration issued a gale warning for the seaboards of Batanes and Babuyan Islands. Seas remained rough to very rough, with waves between 2.8 and 4.5 meters high. Fishing boats and small vessels were advised to remain in port, while larger ships were cautioned to prepare for dangerous swells. Gusty conditions were expected to linger across extreme Northern Luzon through Wednesday as the typhoon's circulation continued to channel wind through the Luzon Strait.
But the departure of one storm meant the arrival of another was already in motion. PAGASA was tracking a tropical depression positioned 1,720 kilometers east of extreme Northern Luzon, moving slowly eastward over the Philippine Sea with maximum sustained winds of 45 kilometers per hour. The system was expected to drift and stall for the next day and a half before making a sharp turn toward the northwest or west-northwest on Thursday, September 15. At that point, it would accelerate and begin moving toward Philippine waters.
If the timing held, the tropical depression would enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Thursday afternoon or evening, at which point it would receive the local name Josie. More significantly, PAGASA predicted it would likely have intensified into a typhoon by the time it crossed the boundary. The weather bureau noted that modest strengthening was expected through Wednesday, but improving atmospheric conditions on Thursday would allow for more rapid intensification as the system picked up speed.
Despite the incoming threat, officials stressed that Josie was not expected to make landfall in the Philippines. Its track would carry it past the archipelago without direct impact to populated areas. However, its presence could still affect the country's weather. The system was likely to enhance the southwest monsoon, potentially bringing significant rainfall to the western portions of Southern Luzon and the Visayas beginning Wednesday or Thursday. Residents in those regions were advised to monitor forecasts for possible flooding and landslides.
Looking ahead to the remainder of the typhoon season, PAGASA projected that between seven and eleven tropical cyclones would enter or develop within the Philippine Area of Responsibility from September 2022 through February 2023. The distribution was expected to be heaviest in the coming months: two or three in September, two to four in October, and two or three in November. Activity would taper through the winter months, with one or two expected in December and minimal activity forecast for January and February. The forecast underscored that the Philippines was entering a period of heightened tropical cyclone activity, with multiple systems potentially affecting the nation in the weeks ahead.
Notable Quotes
Modest intensification is likely on Tuesday and Wednesday, while improving environmental conditions will enable the tropical cyclone to intensify at a relatively faster rate by Thursday.— PAGASA forecast bulletin
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does a typhoon that never made landfall still warrant this much attention from the weather service?
Because the Philippines sits in a funnel. Even when a storm stays offshore, its circulation can channel wind and rain across the islands. Inday never touched land, but it still affected how people could fish, how they moved between islands, what kind of weather to expect inland.
And this next system—Josie—you're saying it won't make landfall either, but it still matters?
Exactly. It won't hit the coast, but it will pump moisture into the monsoon winds. That means heavy rain in specific regions—western Luzon, the Visayas. For farmers, for people in flood-prone areas, that's the story that matters.
The forecast mentions seven to eleven cyclones through February. That's a lot. Is that normal?
It's the seasonal reality. The Philippines sits in the Western Pacific, the most active tropical cyclone basin on Earth. From September through February, you're in the thick of it. Some years are busier than others, but this range is what the bureau expects based on climate patterns.
If Josie won't make landfall, why would it intensify to typhoon strength?
The ocean is warmer out there, and the atmospheric conditions are more favorable for organization. A system can grow stronger over open water and still never threaten land. The intensity and the track are separate things.
What does PAGASA actually do with forecasts like this?
They issue warnings, they advise fishermen and mariners, they prepare the public for what's coming. Even a storm that passes offshore shapes how people live—where they can work, what precautions to take, whether to stay home.