Tuesday primaries reshape Congress as redistricting, Trump influence reshape key races

The primary season is winding down, but the races that matter most are just now coming into focus. On Tuesday, voters in Florida, Wyoming, California, and Alaska will cast ballots in contests that will reshape the congressional map and offer the clearest picture yet of what the midterm landscape looks like under a second Trump administration. What emerges from these primaries will help determine which party controls Congress come November—and whether the political realignment that began in 2024 continues to hold.

The most striking development is the emergence of a historic slate of Black gubernatorial candidates, a shift that cuts across party lines. On the Republican side, Trump-backed Florida Rep. Byron Donalds is running to become the state's first Black governor, following the path of Rep. John James in Michigan and Lisa Demuth in Minnesota, who defeated Mike Lindell in her primary. The Democratic field is equally notable: David Crowley won a tight primary in Wisconsin against a democratic socialist; Aaron Ford is the attorney general in Nevada; Jermaine Johnson is a state representative in South Carolina; and Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former mayor of Atlanta, is running in Georgia with a chance to become the nation's first Black woman governor. Currently, only one Black governor serves in the nation—Democrat Wes Moore of Maryland. The scale of this shift is difficult to overstate. It represents not just demographic change but a fundamental recalibration of who gets to lead in major states.

In Florida, the Republican-controlled redrawing of congressional districts has created a series of awkward and contentious matchups that will test the Democratic Party's internal cohesion. The most visible clash pits veteran U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, a former national party chair seeking her 12th term, against former U.S. Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick in a South Florida district that is nearly majority Black. Cherfilus-McCormick resigned earlier this year under threat of House ethics sanctions but is now attempting to reclaim her seat. Wasserman Schultz is the only white candidate in a field of five competing in a Broward County area that has sent Black Democrats to Congress consistently since 1992. Her decision to run has ignited deep resentment among her opponents, with one rival accusing her of stabbing the community in the back. The race has become a referendum on representation and power in a district where demographics have shifted significantly.

The race to fill Donalds' House seat reads like a catalog of political excess and redemption. The field includes two former members of Congress attempting comebacks after departing in disgrace. Madison Cawthorn's tenure in the House was marked by repeated traffic stops, guns discovered at airport checkpoints, and allegations that he had been invited to a Washington orgy. Chris Collins, a former New York representative, resigned before pleading guilty to insider trading, served prison time, and was later pardoned by Trump. Catalina Lauf, who ran twice unsuccessfully for Congress in Illinois, has relocated to Florida to try again. Ola Hawatmeh previously ran for Congress in New York; Linda Sawyer tried in Michigan. John Strand, a former television actor and underwear model, served prison time for his role in the January 6 Capitol assault. The sheer oddity of the field underscores how redistricting has scrambled traditional political geography, forcing candidates to shop for districts where they might win.

The Democratic Party's internal fault lines are on full display in Florida's special election for the last two years of Marco Rubio's Senate term. Progressive state lawmaker Angie Nixon is facing retired Army Lt. Col. Alex Vindman, a former National Security Council official whose testimony against Trump during the 2019 impeachment trial made him a national figure. The winner will likely face interim Sen. Ashley Moody, the Republican appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis to the seat. Elsewhere in South Florida, U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz is running for reelection in a newly Republican-friendly district against Oliver Larkin, a union organizer and democratic socialist. Meanwhile, Republican Rep. Cory Mills, seeking a third term, is navigating an ethics investigation stemming from allegations of assault, domestic violence, and campaign finance violations, which he denies. These races reveal a party struggling to define itself in a state that has shifted rightward.

Alaska's Senate race has become a national spectacle, in part because of a ballot quirk that threatens to confuse voters. Incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, a Trump ally seeking a third term, is facing another candidate also named Dan Sullivan. Republicans have argued that Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired teacher, is a sham candidate placed on the ballot by Democrats to create confusion. Sullivan Jr. has denied the charge. Also running is former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola, the first Alaska Native to serve in Congress, who would become the first Alaska Native senator if elected. Under Alaska's open primary system, all candidates appear on the same ballot, and the top four vote-getters advance to a ranked-choice general election. In the state's sole House seat, Republican Rep. Nick Begich is facing a crowded field that includes his uncle, former state Sen. Tom Begich, and former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, both Democrats. The Begich family's presence in the race adds another layer of complexity to a state where political dynasties have long held sway.

Wyoming presents an unusual opening. For the first time in more than three decades, the state has open seats for governor, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House all simultaneously. In a state where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by a 7-to-1 margin, the Republican primary is effectively the general election. Sen. Cynthia Lummis' decision to retire after a single term triggered a cascade of candidacies. Rep. Harriet Hageman, who became nationally known after defeating Liz Cheney, one of Trump's harshest Republican critics, in 2022, is running to replace Lummis and has an overwhelming fundraising advantage. Nine Republicans are competing to replace Hageman in the House. Gov. Mark Gordon considered challenging the state's term limit law to seek a third term but ultimately decided against it. The convergence of open seats in a reliably Republican state means that Wyoming's delegation will likely look quite different after November.

In California's Bay Area, voters are selecting a replacement for Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell, whose resignation following sexual assault allegations ended his gubernatorial ambitions. State Sen. Aisha Wahab and Bay Area Rapid Transit Board President Melissa Hernandez advanced from a special open primary and will compete in the general election. The race has become a proxy for a broader debate about outside spending in Democratic primaries, particularly from pro-Israel lobbying groups. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee's super PAC has spent more than $2 million against Wahab while backing Hernandez, and another group funded by the super PAC has spent nearly $2 million supporting Hernandez. The scale of this spending in a single House race reflects how national interest groups are reshaping local contests.