Trump's tariff threats cast shadow over fractured Brics summit in Delhi

Donald Trump will not be in Delhi this weekend, but his presence will shape every conversation. As leaders from eleven Brics nations gather for their summit—India, China, Russia, Brazil, South Africa, the UAE, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and three others—they will meet under the weight of American tariff threats and the unpredictability of White House policy. The bloc has grown substantially in recent years, now representing nearly half the world's population, forty percent of global GDP, and a quarter of international trade. Yet that expansion, which should have strengthened Brics, has instead fractured it. The group now contains members with fundamentally incompatible interests, and finding common ground on how to respond to Washington has become nearly impossible.

The core problem is simple: Brics members cannot agree on whether to challenge the United States at all. Russia and Iran, both heavily sanctioned and both facing direct American pressure, want the bloc to take a forceful stance against Trump's policies and his threats of tariffs against any nation that moves away from the dollar. But India, which is in final negotiations on a trade deal with Washington, cannot afford to sign a statement that openly criticizes the White House. The UAE, which hosts American military bases and has itself been targeted by Iranian attacks during recent regional escalations, will not support language that strengthens Tehran's position. China, meanwhile, worries about being seen as using Brics to orchestrate an anti-American coalition. The result is a group that possesses real economic and political weight but lacks the internal coherence to wield it.

Trump has made his position unmistakably clear. In November 2024, he threatened Brics nations with one-hundred-percent tariffs if they attempted to create an alternative currency or undermine the dollar's dominance in global trade. His warnings have been frequent and public, casting a chill over any discussion of de-dollarization—one of Brics' stated ambitions. The threat is not abstract. Global energy markets have already been destabilized by uncertainty over American policy, and the world economy has grown accustomed to guessing what the White House will do next.

What Brics can realistically accomplish at this summit is therefore constrained. The bloc has genuine achievements to point to: the New Development Bank has approved billions in infrastructure projects across the developing world, and a one-hundred-billion-dollar contingency reserve has been established to help members weather financial crises. Leaders are likely to discuss ways to make cross-border payments in local currencies easier—a measure that would particularly benefit Russia and Iran, both desperate to circumvent American sanctions. The group will also continue positioning itself as a voice for developing nations, pushing for reforms to the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank, institutions that many in the global south believe no longer reflect the actual distribution of global power.

For India, the stakes are unusually high. As host, New Delhi has an opportunity to strengthen its claim to leadership of the global south, a role it has been pursuing with mixed results. India's own foreign policy priorities—multilateralism, a multipolar world, greater representation for developing countries, and freer global trade—align closely with Brics' agenda. But India has struggled to make inroads in Africa and Latin America, where China has been far more successful. The summit offers a chance to deepen ties with countries like Ethiopia, Brazil, and Indonesia. Yet India also faces a diplomatic test: securing a consensus statement, the traditional measure of a host nation's success. In May, Brics foreign ministers failed to agree on a joint statement because of disagreements over the Iran war, forcing India to issue only a chair's summary. India succeeded in producing a joint declaration as G20 host in 2023 despite deep divisions over Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but that was a different group with different fault lines.

The bilateral meetings scheduled around the summit will carry their own weight. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Saturday—a closely watched encounter between two nations slowly rebuilding ties after years of tension. Modi will also meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Ukraine's war will almost certainly dominate that conversation. India's growing trade deficits with both Russia and China will also feature in these discussions. Beyond the bilateral realm, any language on the United States is expected to be carefully worded to avoid direct confrontation, a constraint that will frustrate those within Brics who want a clearer challenge to American dominance.

India's diplomatic challenge is to produce substantive announcements while holding the group together—to show that Brics is more than a talk shop, as critics have long claimed. The group's economic weight is real, but its political unity remains fragile. Trump's tariff threats have not brought Brics closer together; if anything, they have pushed members further apart, each calculating its own exposure and its own relationship with Washington. For India, success at this summit would be a significant achievement. For Brics as a whole, it would be a demonstration that the bloc can function as something more than a collection of countries with divergent interests. The coming days will show whether that is possible.