Trump's Shifting Iran Rhetoric Leaves Mideast Diplomats in Limbo After Midterm Losses

In the week since Republicans lost badly in the midterm elections, President Donald Trump has said a great deal about where the Iran war goes next, and much of it has pulled in opposite directions. Across exchanges with reporters, broadcast interviews and social media posts, he has stepped back from the idea of fresh strikes and, at the same time, from the idea of more talks with Iranian negotiators, in a conflict now eight months old.

The day after the election, Trump acknowledged that the war, and the global economic turmoil it has caused, were partly to blame for his party's losses, though he maintained that launching it was the right decision. Early this week he met Qatar's prime minister at the White House, then told reporters he thought it highly unlikely he would need to order new major strikes. The war, he said, was "militarily effectively over."

By Thursday the tone had changed again. Trump questioned whether he needed to hurry toward an endgame, declared that the United States no longer needs a deal with Tehran, and directed Vice President JD Vance, his chief negotiator in earlier peace talks, to give his "complete and total attention" to the administration's domestic anti-fraud campaign. Through all of it, Trump warned that the U.S. military is "locked and loaded" and watching Pickaxe Mountain, a facility tied to Iran's nuclear program, for signs of activity. "If something does not work out, I would not hesitate" to act, he told broadcaster Hugh Hewitt.

According to a person familiar with the matter, Vance had been weighing a return to talks with senior Iranian negotiators. Trump's post came the morning after The Wall Street Journal reported on that thinking. Trump knew of Vance's deliberations and believed the Iranians were not acting in good faith, the person said. Trump is also increasingly confident he can credibly claim to have met his military objectives, and with oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz near prewar levels, he might leave it to Gulf states to negotiate with Iran over governing the waterway. Passage remains dangerous, though: the United Nations reports October saw the most incidents against commercial ships there since February.

Qatar, the chief mediator, is still working on an interim agreement that would restore traffic through the strait while keeping the door open to further U.S.-Iran discussions. Two Middle East diplomats familiar with the process, speaking anonymously because of its sensitivity, said things looked on track after the Qatari prime minister's meeting with Trump. Thursday's post, they said, created a sense of limbo. One questioned why Trump seemed to be sidelining Vance, who was skeptical about the war but ultimately backed it. The other described the peace push as a holding pattern, with neither mediators nor Iranians sure whether Trump was abandoning a negotiated outcome or posturing after the midterms cost his party control of Congress.

The White House declined to comment directly on his postelection remarks. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking Friday evening to the Federalist Society, said the economic pain being inflicted on Iran was so great that military action was unnecessary. Earlier in the week he said the U.S. does not oppose mediators continuing, adding that Trump would favor a deal but "not a stupid deal" or "a bad deal." Democratic Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey, speaking at his party's postelection gathering in Denver, accused Trump of acting like an arsonist who set foreign policy ablaze and now wants to walk away.

Iran has not softened. Deputy U.N. ambassador Gholamhossein Darzi told the Security Council on Friday that Iran "has never closed the door to diplomacy," but promised "an immediate and decisive response" if the U.S. or Israel resumes bombing. Tehran also refuses to discuss its nuclear program until the U.S. accepts several core conditions it wants in any ceasefire, while Trump insists the nuclear dispute, the thorniest issue, be settled in any deal.

Michael Singh of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy expects the stalemate over Hormuz and the monthslong U.S. naval blockade of Iranian crude to continue. He called patience, pressure and letting mediators work the most sensible path, with senior officials such as Vance engaged only when the time is right.

Next week the ambiguity travels with Trump to the Philippines and then to the APEC meetings in Shenzhen, China, where he is to hold an unprecedented three-way summit with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. Iran and the three powers' nuclear stockpiles are expected on the agenda.