Trump's Shifting Iran Rhetoric Leaves Mideast Diplomacy in Limbo After Midterm Losses

In the days since Republicans lost badly in last week's midterm elections, President Donald Trump has said a great deal about where the eight-month-old Iran war goes from here, and much of it has pulled in opposite directions. In exchanges with reporters, broadcast interviews and social media posts, he has stepped back from the idea of more strikes and also from the idea of more talks with Iran's negotiators.

The day after the election, Trump acknowledged that the war, and the global economic turmoil it has caused, were partly to blame for his party's losses. He maintained that going to war was the right decision. At the start of this week he met at the White House with Qatar's prime minister, then told reporters he thought it highly unlikely he would need to order new major strikes on Iran. The war, he said, "militarily is effectively over."

By Thursday the tone had changed again. Trump raised questions about whether he needed to hurry toward an endgame, declared that the United States no longer needs a deal with Tehran, and directed Vice President JD Vance to turn his attention to the administration's domestic anti-fraud campaign. Vance had served as Trump's chief negotiator in the earlier peace talks. Throughout, Trump warned that the U.S. military is "locked and loaded" and watching Pickaxe Mountain, a facility linked to Iran's nuclear program, for signs of activity. "If something does not work out, I would not hesitate" to act, he told conservative broadcaster Hugh Hewitt on Thursday.

According to a person familiar with the matter, who spoke anonymously, Vance had been weighing whether to re-engage senior Iranian negotiators. The Wall Street Journal reported that deliberation, and Trump posted his message the next morning. He knew of Vance's thinking and believed the Iranians were not acting in good faith, the person said. The person added that Trump is increasingly confident he can credibly claim to have achieved his military objectives. With oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz near prewar levels, he could leave it to Gulf countries to negotiate with Iran over governing the waterway. The strait is still dangerous: the United Nations reports October had the most incidents against commercial ships there since February.

Qatar, the chief mediator, is still trying to negotiate an interim agreement that would restore traffic through the strait while leaving room for further U.S.-Iran discussions. Two Middle East diplomats familiar with the process, speaking anonymously because of its sensitivity, said it looked to be on track after the Qatari prime minister's meeting with Trump. Thursday's post, they said, created a sense of limbo. One wondered why Trump seemed to be sidelining Vance, who was skeptical about launching the war but ultimately backed it. The other described the peace push as a holding pattern, with mediators and Iranians unsure whether Trump was abandoning a negotiated deal or posturing after the midterms cost his party control of Congress.

Democrats were harsher. Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey, speaking Friday on the sidelines of his party's postelection gathering in Denver, called Trump an arsonist who has set American foreign policy ablaze and "now he just wants to walk away." The war was begun without consulting U.S. allies, who are nonetheless struggling with its economic fallout. The White House declined to comment directly on Trump's postelection rhetoric. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking Friday evening to the Federalist Society, said the economic pain being inflicted on Iran is so great that military action is unnecessary. Earlier in the week he said the U.S. does not oppose mediators continuing their work: "If there's a deal to be done, the president will be the first one to be in favor of it," he said, but not "a stupid deal" or "a bad deal."

Tehran has not softened. Iran remains unwilling to discuss its nuclear program until the U.S. accepts several core conditions it wants in any ceasefire, while Trump insists the nuclear dispute be settled as part of any deal. Iran's deputy U.N. ambassador, Gholamhossein Darzi, told the Security Council on Friday that Iran "has never closed the door to diplomacy," but warned of "an immediate and decisive response" if the U.S. or Israel resumes bombing.

Michael Singh of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, who worked on Middle East issues in George W. Bush's White House, expects the stalemate over Hormuz and the monthslong U.S. naval blockade of Iranian crude to continue for some time. He called patience and pressure the most sensible path, with senior officials like Vance engaged only when the time is right. He noted Trump could reverse course on Vance if the Iranians seem ready to negotiate seriously.

The next signals may come next week, when Trump travels to the Philippines and then to Shenzhen, China, for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings. There he is expected to hold an unprecedented three-way summit with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, where Iran and the three powers' nuclear stockpiles are expected to be discussed.