A president, speaking after a meeting with Moscow's envoy, has suggested that the bargain he is pursuing with Russia may reach beyond Ukraine to the shape of the whole continent, and the old fear that great powers will carve Europe into spheres has returned to the table. Allies who were not in the room hear in that phrase an echo of Yalta, and a warning that decisions about their security may be taken before they are asked. Whether this is the opening of a durable settlement or only the familiar sound of a deal being imagined before the fighting has ended remains, for now, an open question.
Trump's Russia Deal Talk Alarms NATO Allies, as Ex-Commander Warns of Putin's Spheres-of-Influence Plan
"Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine."
Trump said the deal might involve "all of Europe." Why did that land so hard?
Because Europe wasn't in the room. He said it after meeting Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev, and allies heard a plan about them, made without them.
Worth saying what we actually have there: one remark to reporters. No text of any deal has been described.
Rubio tried to soften it, didn't he?
He said post-war European architecture comes up in every negotiation conversation, and that Trump was alluding to advances on that. But he added the conflict has to end first.
Note that's Rubio interpreting Trump. He didn't say what the advances are.
And Breedlove's three spheres of influence?
China in the Far East, Russia in Europe, America in the Western Hemisphere. He says Putin has talked and written about it.
That's Breedlove's account of Putin's intentions, not something the White House has confirmed as part of any proposal. He also says he expects what's under the hood to disappoint Europeans, which is a prediction.
What about the Finland and Norway call with Putin?
Stubb and Støre spoke to him for 90 minutes on Oct. 27, per reports. Frederiksen said Europe should stick together; Breedlove called the calls appropriate.
"Per reports" is the operative phrase. And that's a split in views, not a settled European position.
So what's next?
Abu Dhabi, Nov. 10-11, with France confirmed as attending.
Il Polso
- Trump's remark that a Russia agreement 'might involve all of Europe' has jolted NATO allies who were not part of the discussion.
- Retired Gen. Philip Breedlove describes a Putin design of three spheres of influence, with Russia holding Europe, and warns the plan would not go well.
- Zelenskyy's 'Yalta 2.0' warning frames the risk as a division of Europe negotiated over the heads of those who live there.
- Europe is split in its response, with separate Nordic outreach to Putin drawing criticism for undermining unified action.
- Abu Dhabi talks on Nov. 10-11, with France participating, are the next test of whether a European architecture is truly being shaped or only discussed.
A president, speaking after a meeting with Moscow's envoy, has suggested that the bargain he is pursuing with Russia may reach beyond Ukraine to the shape of the whole continent, and the old fear that great powers will carve Europe into spheres has returned to the table. Allies who were not in the room hear in that phrase an echo of Yalta, and a warning that decisions about their security may be taken before they are asked. Whether this is the opening of a durable settlement or only the familiar sound of a deal being imagined before the fighting has ended remains, for now, an open question.
Standing beside the White House after meeting Kirill Dmitriev, Russia's presidential envoy, Donald Trump said the agreement he is pursuing with Moscow would extend well past Ukraine. He said it might involve 'all of Europe' and called it a big, beautiful deal that would leave everyone thrilled. The words landed hard in capitals that were not in the room.
Retired Gen. Philip Breedlove, a former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, told Fox News Digital that Vladimir Putin has long described a world divided into three spheres: China in the Far East, Russia in Europe, and America in the Western Hemisphere. Breedlove believes the Western world is waiting to see the plan and is deeply concerned, because it is about them. He doubts European countries will cooperate, and he questions whether any settlement made without Europe or Ukraine will be accepted.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned CNN against a 'Yalta 2.0,' recalling how the 1945 conference handed Eastern Europe to Soviet control. 'We don't want to be divided by Russia,' he said. On Sunday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio offered a gentler reading, saying the shape of postwar Europe has come up in every negotiation and that Trump was pointing toward that future, though the war must end first.
European responses have not been unified. Finnish and Norwegian leaders held a rare call with Putin in late October, and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen urged Europe to stick together rather than go solo. Breedlove called those calls appropriate and said Europe's major powers fear someone is handling their security without them.
As delegations prepare for Abu Dhabi on Nov. 10-11, with France confirming its participation, the question is who will sit at the table and whether the wider European arrangement is more than talk while the fighting continues.
Standing with reporters after a White House meeting with Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev, President Donald Trump said the agreement he is pursuing with Moscow would reach well past Ukraine. "It's going to involve more than Ukraine," he said, adding that it might involve "all of Europe." He called it a "big, beautiful agreement" that would leave everyone thrilled. The remarks came on a Thursday, and they have since unsettled NATO allies.
One of the voices of alarm belongs to retired Gen. Philip Breedlove, a former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, who spoke to Fox News Digital. His argument is that Vladimir Putin has a long-stated design for the world and has pressed it on leaders more than once. "He talks about it and he writes about it," Breedlove said. In his description, the design is three spheres of influence: China controlling the Far East, Russia controlling Europe, and America controlling the Western Hemisphere. He does not expect much cooperation from European countries, and says the Western world is waiting to see the plan and is deeply concerned "because it is about them."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy raised a historical comparison. Speaking to CNN on Friday, he warned against what he called a "Yalta 2.0," a reference to the 1945 conference where Allied leaders negotiated Europe's postwar order before the Soviet Union consolidated control over Eastern Europe. "We don't want to be divided by Russia," he said, adding that the prospect is "not simple" and "can be dangerous."
On Sunday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio tried to explain what Trump meant. Before leaving for the G7 meeting in Paris, he told reporters that the shape of Europe after the war has come up repeatedly in every conversation about negotiations. In his reading, the president was alluding to advances on what that post-conflict architecture could look like. He also acknowledged the obvious limit: the conflict has to be gotten past before that point is reached.
Breedlove questioned whether Europe and Ukraine would accept anything worked out without them. When the details emerge, he said, some European partners, Ukraine included, "may or may not be enthralled." He recalled the principle of "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine" and noted that he has heard nothing about the EU or NATO having a seat in the conversation, even though they are, in his words, central to the matter.
European diplomacy has not been uniform. On Oct. 27, Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre held a rare 90-minute telephone call with Putin, according to reports. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen criticized such separate initiatives: "Europe should stick together rather than going solo." Breedlove defended the calls, calling them "entirely appropriate" and saying Europe's great powers are growing concerned that someone is dealing with their security without including them.
Delegations are preparing for talks in Abu Dhabi on Nov. 10-11. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot confirmed Sunday, as reported by Reuters, that France will take part, saying the Europeans "will be well represented."
Breedlove's warning about the terms was blunt. If Russia's maximalist demands stand, and peace requires the rest of Europe to sacrifice its security and become more open to Russian attack, "this is not going to go well." He said Putin has never been, and is not now, a partner for peace in Ukraine, and that the EU, NATO and Ukraine will not sign onto a plan letting Russia rebuild its armies and march across borders. "Mr. Putin is at war with the West," he said.
What to watch is Abu Dhabi: who sits at the table, and whether the broader European arrangement Trump hinted at turns out to be anything more than talk of architecture after a war that is still being fought.
Citazioni salienti
The plan is three spheres of influence whereby China controls the Far East, Russia controls Europe, and America controls the Western Hemisphere.— Retired Gen. Philip Breedlove
We don't want to have Yalta 2.0.— Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, to CNN