In the long theater of American engagement with Iran, the United States has settled into a rhythm that resembles maintenance more than resolution — striking military installations, watching them rise again, and striking once more. Borrowed from Israeli counterinsurgency doctrine and applied now to a sovereign state controlling one of the world's most vital waterways, this 'mowing the grass' approach raises a question older than any particular administration: can a nation manage a conflict forever without either ending it or being changed by it? The deeper danger, analysts warn, is that endless
Deutsche Welle
· Sep 03, 2026
· security
· 4 min de leitura
High
Apuração: Verificado
Trump's 'Mowing the Grass' Iran Strategy Risks Becoming a Forever War
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War & Conflict
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Viés e Enquadramento
⚖
Article presents 'mowing the grass' strategy critically, emphasizing expert warnings about endless conflict and unintended nuclear escalation while using metaphorical framing that may oversimplify complex geopolitics.
Bias Direction
center-left
Confidence
MED
Problem-focused framing with cautionary expert consensus. Uses Israeli military metaphor to contextualize strategy, then immediately pivots to sustainability concerns and risks. Emphasizes cyclical nature and unresolved tensions rather than strategic rationale.
risks becoming a forever war
paradoxically push Iran toward nuclear weapons
the war moved on to
won't last
enemy's military capabilities
threat remains manageable
Trump administration's strategic rationale and threat assessment
US military/CENTCOM perspective on effectiveness and sustainability
Regional allies' views (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Israel)
Counterarguments about deterrence value of repeated strikes
Iranian government's stated position beyond military responses
Impacto Geopolítico
🌎
US 'mowing the grass' strategy of recurring limited strikes on Iran risks perpetual conflict while potentially accelerating Iranian nuclear weapons development, destabilizing Middle East.
Escalation Risk
high
Confidence
HIGH
Iran
United States
Strait of Hormuz
Gulf States (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar)
Iraq
Syria
Israel
US attempting to maintain military dominance through attrition strategy without commitment to decisive victory; Iran incentivized to accelerate asymmetric capabilities and nuclear program as deterrent; regional allies (Gulf states) caught between US security umbrella and Iranian retaliation risks; Israel's security concerns amplified; Russia/China benefit from US-Iran quagmire.
Israeli 'mowing the grass' strategy against Hamas/Hezbollah (2008-present) demonstrates how recurring limited strikes fail to achieve lasting security, breed resentment, and perpetuate cycles of retaliation—applicable template showing structural risks.
Lente Econômica
📈
US 'mowing the grass' strategy of recurring limited strikes on Iran risks escalating into perpetual conflict, threatening global oil markets, defense spending, and potentially driving Iran toward nuclear weapons development.
Market Signal
bearish
Confidence
HIGH
Energy/Oil & Gas
Defense & Aerospace
Shipping & Maritime Transport
Insurance
International Trade
Technology
Consumers face potential oil price volatility and inflation pressures from Strait of Hormuz disruptions; higher defense spending may crowd out domestic investments; increased insurance costs for shipping could raise consumer goods prices.
Governments may increase military budgeting; potential sanctions escalation; international pressure for diplomatic resolution; possible energy security reviews; maritime insurance and shipping regulations likely to tighten; potential nuclear non-proliferation treaty implications.