At a moment when the cost of living and the weight of an unpopular war press upon ordinary Americans, Donald Trump's approval has fallen to a historic low — worse than any president since Truman at this stage of a term. The numbers suggest not merely political dissatisfaction but something deeper: a public reckoning with the consequences of policy choices made in their name. With November's midterms approaching, the democratic process is preparing to render its own verdict on the distance between leadership and the lives it governs.
Trump's approval hits record low as Democrats gain edge in midterm forecasts
His approval is worse than any president since Truman at this stage
Mark
So Trump's approval is at minus 23. How does that actually compare to where presidents usually are at this point?
Mimi
It's the worst since Truman. His own first term bottomed out at minus 11.6 at a similar stage. This is significantly worse than any recent precedent.
Luke
But we should note—this is one aggregator's number. Silver's is well-regarded, but it's still an aggregate of polls with their own margins of error. The real number could be a point or two different.
Mark
And the Iran war seems to be the driver here?
Mimi
It's clearly a major factor. Fifty-eight percent oppose it, and it's pushed oil prices up, which has hit gas prices at the pump. That's real money people feel every day.
Luke
Though we should be careful about causation. The economy was already struggling before the war. We can see the war made it worse, but we can't say it's the sole cause of the approval drop.
Mark
If Democrats win both chambers, what actually changes?
Mimi
They'd have the ability to block Trump's agenda, pass their own legislation, and conduct oversight. It's a fundamental shift in power.
Luke
But the forecast assumes current conditions hold. If gas prices drop before November—and there are signs they might—the political picture could change. The model is a snapshot, not a prediction.
Mark
So November is still genuinely uncertain?
Mimi
The probabilities favor Democrats heavily right now, but yes. Economic conditions could shift. Polling could be systematically wrong. It's not predetermined.
Luke
Exactly. Ninety-one percent for the House sounds definitive, but that means one in eleven scenarios has Republicans holding it. Those aren't impossible odds.
O Pulso
- Trump's net approval has collapsed to -23, a figure no president since Truman has recorded at this point in their term — and far below his own previous low of -11.6 during his first administration.
- The Iran war, opposed by nearly 58% of Americans, has fractured public trust and driven petrol prices to an average of $4.48 per gallon, compounding inflation anxieties that already register at a punishing -46.4 net approval on the economy.
- Democrats have surged to a 9.1-point lead on the generic ballot, with forecast models now giving them a 91% chance of winning the House and 69% chance of flipping the Senate — including leads in deep-red states like Texas, Ohio, and Iowa.
- The outcome is not sealed: falling crude oil prices hint that pump relief may arrive before November, and a lag effect seen in early September suggests economic improvement could partially restore Republican standing in the final weeks.
At a moment when the cost of living and the weight of an unpopular war press upon ordinary Americans, Donald Trump's approval has fallen to a historic low — worse than any president since Truman at this stage of a term. The numbers suggest not merely political dissatisfaction but something deeper: a public reckoning with the consequences of policy choices made in their name. With November's midterms approaching, the democratic process is preparing to render its own verdict on the distance between leadership and the lives it governs.
Donald Trump's public standing has reached a historic nadir. Nate Silver's polling aggregation places his net approval at minus 23 — worse than any president since Harry Truman at a comparable moment in their term. Sixty percent of Americans disapprove of his performance, and even his first-term numbers, which were themselves underwater, never fell this far. The slide has been swift: just eleven days prior, his net approval stood at minus 19.7.
The damage is distributed across nearly every policy domain. On trade, his net approval is minus 28.3; on the economy, minus 32.1; and on inflation — the issue that appears to cut deepest — it reaches minus 46.4. Underlying much of this is the Iran war, which began in late February and is now opposed by 57.9% of Americans. The conflict has roiled oil markets, pushing average pump prices to $4.48 per gallon, up sharply from a late-August low.
These conditions are reshaping the electoral map ahead of November's midterms. Democrats lead the generic ballot by 9.1 points and hold a 91% probability of winning the House and 69% for the Senate — both figures rising since mid-September. Most strikingly, Democrats now lead Senate races in Texas, Ohio, Alaska, and Iowa, states Trump carried by double digits in 2024. Republicans find themselves defending ground they once considered safe.
Yet the forecast carries caveats. Brent crude has already begun retreating from its September peak, and if petrol prices ease before Election Day, Republican prospects could recover — as they briefly did in early September following a similar oil price dip. A genuine improvement in economic conditions, felt by ordinary Americans rather than reflected only in stock indices, could also shift sentiment. For now, however, the data describes a public exhausted by war and its costs, and a political wave forming in response.
Donald Trump's standing with the American public has reached a historic low. According to Nate Silver's aggregation of national polling data, his net approval rating now sits at minus 23—a figure worse than any president since Harry Truman has recorded at this comparable point in their term. Sixty percent of Americans disapprove of his performance while 37.4 percent approve. Even during his first term, when his numbers were underwater, Trump never dipped this far; his previous low at a similar stage was minus 11.6.
The deterioration has been sharp and recent. Just eleven days earlier, his net approval stood at minus 19.7. Earlier in September, it had briefly recovered to minus 18.7 before sliding backward. The damage spans multiple policy areas. On immigration, his net approval is minus 13. On trade, it's minus 28.3. On the economy, minus 32.1. On inflation—the issue that appears to weigh most heavily on voters—it reaches minus 46.4, suggesting deep public anxiety about the cost of living.
This collapse in presidential approval is occurring against the backdrop of an unpopular foreign conflict. The Iran war, which began in late February, has fractured public opinion. Currently, 57.9 percent of Americans oppose it while 33.5 percent support it, a net opposition of minus 24.4. That opposition has hardened since mid-September, when it stood at minus 20.1. The war has disrupted oil markets; commodity prices surged from a low of $2.99 per gallon on August 27 to $3.49 now, though they peaked at $3.76 in May. Americans are paying an average of $4.48 per gallon at the pump, with the retail price elevated further by taxes and profit margins.
These numbers are translating into concrete electoral consequences. In Silver's forecast model for the November 3 midterm elections, Democrats now lead the generic ballot by 9.1 points—51.4 percent to 42.3 percent. That margin has widened since early September, when it stood at 7.4 points. The model gives Democrats a 69 percent chance of winning control of the Senate and a 91 percent chance of winning the House. Both probabilities have risen since mid-September, when they were 57 percent and 86 percent respectively.
The Senate picture is particularly striking because it reflects Democratic strength in traditionally Republican terrain. Democrats now lead in Senate contests in Texas, Ohio, Alaska, and Iowa—states Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024. Republicans are also in trouble in Nebraska, where they trail an independent by 0.2 points, and in Kansas, where they lead a Democrat by only 1.3 points. The one bright spot for Republicans is Maine, where incumbent Susan Collins has led Democrat Troy Jackson in recent polling, including a three-point lead in a New York Times poll, despite Harris defeating Trump there by 6.9 points in 2024.
Yet the forecast remains contingent on economic conditions holding. If the disruption from the Iran war persists—if petrol prices stay elevated and inflation remains high—Republicans face the prospect of substantial losses in both chambers. But if conditions ease, if gas prices fall back before November, the political landscape could shift. There are already hints this might happen. Brent crude oil peaked at $108.75 per barrel on September 15 but has since fallen to around $105.81, suggesting petrol prices may soon decline. When oil prices dropped in late August, Trump and Republicans saw their polling improve in early September, a lag effect that could repeat if current trends continue.
Two scenarios could still derail the Democratic forecast. A markedly improved economy by November—not merely stock market gains but genuine relief for ordinary Americans—could shift voter sentiment. The S&P 500 is down only 1.2 percent from its August peak and up 16.9 percent from its worst point during the war, but that recovery has not yet translated into broad economic confidence. The second risk is a systematic polling error in Republicans' favor, a possibility that cannot be ruled out but remains speculative. For now, the data points in one direction: toward a significant Democratic wave in November, driven by public exhaustion with both the war and its economic consequences.
Citações Notáveis
If disruption from the Iran war continues until the midterm elections, with increased petrol prices and inflation, Republicans are likely to lose control of both chambers, perhaps with huge losses. However, if the disruption eases and petrol prices fall back before the midterms, Republicans will do better and may retain control of the Senate.— Analysis of midterm forecast scenarios
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