In the Chinese technology city of Shenzhen, the leaders of the United States, China and Russia are preparing to sit together for the first time, on the margins of an Asia-Pacific economic gathering. It arrives at a moment when the old scaffolding of nuclear restraint between Washington and Moscow has fallen away, leaving the world's largest arsenals without agreed limits for the first time in half a century. Whether this is a turning point or simply a gathering that names the problem remains an open question, and the people closest to it have been careful not to promise much.
Trump, Xi and Putin to Hold First Three-Way Summit in Shenzhen on New Nuclear Arms Talks
Without caps for the first time in more than 50 years
Mark
Why does this meeting matter if nobody expects a deal?
Mimi
Because of the gap it fills. Since February, the US and Russia have had no caps on their arsenals for the first time in over 50 years. Simply getting all three leaders together is a step the old treaty framework never had.
Luke
But let's be clear about what's actually known. The only thing confirmed is that the meeting is happening. A senior US official said they don't expect any agreement.
Mark
And Trump's position is that China should be included?
Mimi
Yes. He rejected Russia's offer to extend New START by a year and demanded a new, improved and modernized deal with China in it.
Luke
Worth noting that Trump says it's a chance for a deal, while his own official calls it the start of a conversation. Those are different promises. We don't know if China has agreed to any arms limits.
Mark
What about the Yalta comparison?
Mimi
Peskov rejected it. He said agreements in Shenzhen can't be imposed on others, yet called the meeting extremely significant.
Luke
That's a Kremlin framing, and the comparison itself comes from commentary, not from any of the three governments planning a post-war-style settlement.
Mark
And Zelenskyy's worry?
Mimi
He fears a Ukraine deal could be discussed without Kyiv. The US official says Trump will avoid Ukraine, but will discuss the Iran war.
Luke
The avoidance claim comes from one anonymous official. Whether Ukraine comes up in the room is unknown.
Le Pouls
- The last binding limits on the world's two largest nuclear arsenals expired in February, and no replacement is in place.
- Trump has demanded a new, modernized deal that brings China into the frame, while Russia's proposal for a simple extension was rejected.
- A senior administration official has signaled that no agreement is expected, framing Shenzhen as only the start of a conversation.
- Kyiv fears that the Iran war and arms talks could slide into a discussion of Ukraine's future without Ukraine in the room.
In the Chinese technology city of Shenzhen, the leaders of the United States, China and Russia are preparing to sit together for the first time, on the margins of an Asia-Pacific economic gathering. It arrives at a moment when the old scaffolding of nuclear restraint between Washington and Moscow has fallen away, leaving the world's largest arsenals without agreed limits for the first time in half a century. Whether this is a turning point or simply a gathering that names the problem remains an open question, and the people closest to it have been careful not to promise much.
Next week, the leaders of the United States, China and Russia are set to meet in Shenzhen on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. The White House has described it as an unprecedented three-way meeting, and it is the first time these three leaders have gathered in this way.
The weight of the moment lies in the treaty that no longer exists. New START lapsed in February, and for the first time in more than fifty years the United States and Russia have no agreed caps on their nuclear stockpiles. Russia offered to extend the treaty by a year; Trump turned that down and called for a new deal that includes China.
Expectations inside the administration are modest. An official told Reuters that no agreement is anticipated, and that the meeting is meant to open a conversation. The agenda will also cover the Iran war, while Ukraine is expected to be avoided by the American side. That silence does little to ease concerns in Kyiv, where Zelenskyy worries that a deal over his country could be shaped without him. The question the days ahead will answer is whether anything emerges that includes China, and how Ukraine responds to what was said in the room.
Next week, in the Chinese tech hub of Shenzhen, the leaders of the United States, China and Russia are due to sit down together. The White House confirmed the plan through an announcement from its assistant press secretary: Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin will meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. It is described as an unprecedented three-way meeting.
The timing carries weight. The last nuclear arms treaty between Washington and Moscow, New START, lapsed in February, nine months before this meeting. For the first time in more than 50 years, the two countries with the largest atomic arsenals operate without any agreed caps on them. Russia had proposed extending the treaty for another year. Trump rejected that and demanded a "new, improved and modernized" deal, one that includes China.
Trump has framed the Shenzhen meeting as a chance for all three countries to reach a deal on nuclear stockpiles. The people around him are more cautious. A senior Trump administration official told Reuters, "We do not expect to get to any kind of agreement," and described the meeting as the start of a conversation. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Russia holds the most nuclear warheads, followed by the United States and then China.
The agenda extends beyond arms. A senior US official, briefing reporters on condition of anonymity, said Trump intends to raise the Iran war with Xi and Putin. He will steer clear of Russia's war in Ukraine. The official also said Elon Musk will travel to China with Trump but will not attend the three-way meeting, and that Trump is not expected to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during the Asia trip.
The prospect of the three leaders at one table has prompted comparisons with the 1945 Yalta Conference, where the leaders of the United States, Britain and the Soviet Union shaped the post-war order. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed the parallel. He said any agreements reached in Shenzhen cannot be imposed on others, though he still called the meeting "extremely significant."
In Kyiv, the concern is of a different kind. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has voiced worry that the meeting could become a platform for discussing a Ukraine deal behind his country's back. Washington is seeking to mediate a solution to the war, and the American delegation's stated intention to avoid the subject does little to settle the question for Ukraine.
Trump has pursued closer ties with both Xi and Putin, despite a short-lived trade war with China last year and Russia's continuing war in Ukraine. Shenzhen will test how far that approach can reach on the most consequential question between the three powers.
What to watch is whether the talks yield even the outline of a framework that includes China, which has not been part of past US-Russia arms limits. Also watch how Kyiv responds in the days afterward, given its fear of being left out of the room where its war may come up.
Citations marquantes
We do not expect to get to any kind of agreement.— Senior Trump administration official, to Reuters
Any agreements reached in Shenzhen cannot be imposed on others, but the meeting is extremely significant.— Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman (paraphrased)
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