In a city that rose from a fishing village to a technology hub within a few decades, three men who together command the largest atomic arsenals on earth are expected to meet on the margins of a regional summit, a gathering without precedent in the nuclear age. The reason is the quiet expiry of New START in February, which left the two largest stockpiles unbound for the first time in half a century, while China, holding a far smaller arsenal, has shown little appetite for the arrangement being sketched. What they will actually achieve is expected to be modest, perhaps only the first words of a
Trump, Xi and Putin Plan Unprecedented Trilateral Meeting on APEC Sidelines in Shenzhen
The heads of the world's three biggest nuclear powers, in one room for the first time
Mark
Why does a meeting with no expected agreements matter at all?
Mimi
Because of who is in the room. These are the leaders of the three biggest nuclear powers, and it has never happened before. The officials describe it as a start to nuclear talks.
Mark
And the nuclear piece is urgent because of New START?
Mimi
It expired in February, so for the first time in over fifty years there are no caps on the U.S. and Russian arsenals. Trump turned down Russia's offer of a one-year extension and wants a deal that includes China.
Luke
Worth noting that China has shown little interest. The figures are Pentagon estimates: more than 600 warheads for China, over 5,000 each for the U.S. and Russia. Those are estimates, not declared numbers.
Mark
So why would Xi host?
Mimi
Prestige, possibly. The article says he may be calculating that it showcases China's clout. But an analyst also warns it cuts against China's free-trade, multilateralist image at APEC.
Luke
Careful, that's analysts' reading of motives. Nobody in Beijing has said so in this reporting.
Mark
What about Ukraine?
Mimi
Zelenskyy worries a deal could be discussed without Kyiv. Yalta comparisons have come up, and Peskov rejected them, saying agreements couldn't be imposed on others.
Luke
And what's actually on the agenda for Ukraine is unknown. The concern is Zelenskyy's, not a confirmed plan.
Il Polso
- The first-ever sit-down of the leaders of the world's three largest nuclear powers is set for Thursday on the APEC sidelines in Shenzhen, and the White House has confirmed it.
- New START has lapsed, freeing the two biggest arsenals from limits for the first time in over fifty years, and Trump has rejected a simple extension in favor of a broader deal that includes China.
- Kyiv fears that decisions about Ukraine could be struck behind its back, prompting Yalta comparisons that the Kremlin has dismissed as irrelevant.
- China, wary of a pact that would bind its far smaller arsenal, and of undercutting its own free-trade image, is navigating the summit with visible reluctance.
- Officials expect no agreements, only a symbolic opening, and the meeting is landing as a photograph whose real weight will depend on whether Ukraine enters the conversation.
In a city that rose from a fishing village to a technology hub within a few decades, three men who together command the largest atomic arsenals on earth are expected to meet on the margins of a regional summit, a gathering without precedent in the nuclear age. The reason is the quiet expiry of New START in February, which left the two largest stockpiles unbound for the first time in half a century, while China, holding a far smaller arsenal, has shown little appetite for the arrangement being sketched. What they will actually achieve is expected to be modest, perhaps only the first words of a conversation, yet the very act of their being in one room speaks to how the old frameworks of restraint are giving way to new arrangements of power, grievance, and ambition, with Ukraine's future looming over the table whether or not it is named.
The White House has confirmed that Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin plan to meet next Thursday in Shenzhen, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. It would be the first time the leaders of the three biggest nuclear powers have sat in one room, and expectations are deliberately low. A senior U.S. official described the session as a starting point for nuclear talks, with no agreements expected.
The immediate reason is nuclear arms. New START expired in February, lifting limits on the two largest arsenals for the first time in more than fifty years. Russia asked for a one-year extension, but Trump refused and instead called for a new, modernized treaty that includes China. Beijing, whose arsenal is estimated at over 600 warheads against more than 5,000 each for Washington and Moscow, has shown little interest in such a pact.
Each leader sees something to gain. Xi may relish showcasing China's stature, while the Kremlin hopes to appear the equal of Washington and Beijing. Analysts suggest Putin's real aim is to signal that the three are shaping Ukraine's fate, something Kyiv and Europe resent. Zelenskyy has voiced fear of a deal struck behind his back, and comparisons to Yalta have followed, though the Kremlin rejects them.
The gathering also complicates China's self-image as a champion of free trade and multilateralism. Whether Thursday yields anything beyond the photograph, especially on Ukraine, is the question everyone is watching.
The White House confirmed on Friday that Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin plan to sit down together next Thursday in Shenzhen, China, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. It would be the first gathering of the leaders of the world's three biggest nuclear powers in one room, and the first of its kind.
Expectations are modest. Analysts say the meeting will carry more symbolism than substance. A senior U.S. official, who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity, said the session is meant as a start to nuclear talks among the three and that no agreements are expected to be announced.
The nuclear question is the stated reason for the meeting. The last arms pact between Russia and the United States, New START, expired in February, removing caps on the two largest atomic arsenals for the first time in more than fifty years. Russia had asked to extend the deal another year. Trump rejected that and called instead for a new, improved and modernized agreement that includes China. He has also said he wants to discuss the U.S. war with Iran.
China is the hard part. Pentagon estimates put its arsenal at more than 600 warheads, while the United States and Russia are each believed to hold more than 5,000. With its stockpile so much smaller, Beijing has shown little interest in a nuclear pact, and it was the party least certain about the value of the summit.
Each leader arrives with something to gain. Xi, by hosting, may see a chance to show off China's growing clout and prestige. The Kremlin gets a coveted opportunity to present itself as a superpower equal to Washington and Beijing. Edgard Kagan, a former U.S. ambassador to Malaysia now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Putin's aim was to signal that he and the other two leaders are making decisions on Ukraine, something Ukrainians and Europeans dislike.
The meeting could also overshadow APEC itself, which brings 21 economies to Shenzhen, a coastal city that grew from a small fishing village into a global technology hub within a few decades. Hoo Tiang Boon, a professor of Chinese foreign policy at Nanyang Technological University, said the trilateral could cut against China's push to be seen as a defender of free trade, telling reporters it runs counter to Chinese support for multilateralism. It could also muddy Beijing's arguments that Western Cold War thinking helped cause Russia's war on Ukraine and that the U.S. has undermined international institutions and treaties in the way it has fought Iran.
The leaders know one another well in pairs. Xi and Putin have met more than 40 times since Xi became president in 2013 and call each other "dear friend." Trump and Putin have met face to face seven times, most recently in Alaska in August 2025. Trump and Xi have held eight in-person talks, including Xi's state visit to Washington in September. Trump has embraced Xi since a truce in their brief trade war last year, despite differences over Iran, and has courted Putin even as Russia continues its nearly five-year war in Ukraine and deepens military, intelligence and diplomatic ties with Iran.
China is Russia's top trading partner, a bond that tightened after the 2022 invasion. Beijing bought more Russian energy and became Moscow's main supplier of key technologies, including high-tech components for weapons industries, ignoring Western demands to stop. Before the invasion, Xi and Putin declared a "no-limits friendship." China officially calls itself neutral and says Kyiv's Western allies helped provoke the war. Moscow, for its part, repeatedly backs Beijing's position on Taiwan. Trump recently struck a diesel deal with Russia, waiving sanctions to allow the sale of millions of tons of fuel. He has blamed high energy prices on Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, though analysts attribute the rise in crude prices mostly to the Iran war.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has voiced concern that the meeting could become a venue for discussing a Ukraine deal behind Kyiv's back. Comparisons to the 1945 Yalta Conference have followed. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed them, noting that any agreements reached in Shenzhen could not be enforced on others. Whether Thursday produces anything beyond the photograph, especially on Ukraine, is what to watch.
Citazioni salienti
Any potential agreements reached in Shenzhen can't be enforced on others, dismissing Yalta comparisons.— Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman
A trilateral meeting runs counter to Chinese support of multilateralism.— Hoo Tiang Boon, Nanyang Technological University
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