In a city that rose from a fishing village into a technology hub within living memory, three leaders who command the world's largest nuclear arsenals are preparing to meet for the first time, on the margins of an Asia-Pacific trade summit. The gathering comes at a moment when the old arms treaty between Washington and Moscow has lapsed, leaving the most powerful weapons on earth without any agreed limits for the first time in half a century. Few expect the encounter to resolve anything; its weight lies in the fact that it happens at all, a quiet acknowledgment that the great powers must talk e
Trump, Xi and Putin Plan Unprecedented Trilateral Meeting on APEC Sidelines in Shenzhen
No gathering of Trump, Xi and Putin has happened before.
Mark
Why does a meeting with no expected agreements matter so much?
Mimi
Because of who is in the room. It's the first time these three leaders have sat down together, and they lead the three biggest nuclear powers. And New START expired in February, so the two largest arsenals have no caps.
Mark
What does each side want out of it?
Mimi
Washington wants China at the arms table. Beijing may want to show clout as host. Moscow gets to look like a peer of the other two.
Luke
Careful, though. Those motives are analysts' readings, not stated goals. Kagan's view of Putin's signaling is his interpretation.
Mark
Fair. What is actually confirmed?
Mimi
The White House confirmed the meeting. The U.S. official said no agreements are expected and Ukraine will be avoided.
Luke
And that Ukraine assurance comes from one anonymous official. We don't know what Xi or Putin will raise, and Zelenskyy's worry shows it isn't settled in Kyiv's eyes.
Mark
Why would China resist nuclear talks?
Mimi
Its arsenal is estimated at over 600 warheads versus more than 5,000 each for the U.S. and Russia, so it has little reason to cap itself.
Luke
That 600 figure is a Pentagon estimate, not a Chinese declaration. Worth remembering.
O Pulso
- The first-ever meeting of Trump, Xi and Putin is set for Thursday in Shenzhen, instantly reshaping the diplomatic stage around the APEC summit.
- New START has expired, lifting limits on the two largest nuclear arsenals for the first time in over fifty years, and no arms deal is expected to emerge.
- Washington says it will steer clear of Ukraine, yet Kyiv fears a deal could be struck behind its back, and Moscow hopes to look like a peer superpower.
- Beijing faces pressure to join arms talks and risks undercutting its own free-trade and anti-Cold War messaging.
- Analysts expect symbolism over substance, with the meeting's real test being whether China engages and whether Ukraine quietly enters the room.
In a city that rose from a fishing village into a technology hub within living memory, three leaders who command the world's largest nuclear arsenals are preparing to meet for the first time, on the margins of an Asia-Pacific trade summit. The gathering comes at a moment when the old arms treaty between Washington and Moscow has lapsed, leaving the most powerful weapons on earth without any agreed limits for the first time in half a century. Few expect the encounter to resolve anything; its weight lies in the fact that it happens at all, a quiet acknowledgment that the great powers must talk even when their grievances run deep.
The White House has confirmed that the presidents of the United States, China and Russia will sit down together on Thursday in Shenzhen, on the sidelines of next week's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. No such gathering has ever taken place, and the three lead the world's biggest nuclear powers. Analysts expect little in the way of a breakthrough.
The timing is awkward for everyone involved. Trump has warmed to Xi since a truce ended their brief trade war, and he has courted Putin even as the Russian leader presses a war in Ukraine now nearly five years old and deepens ties with Iran. Trump says the talks will address the Iran war and a possible three-way agreement on nuclear stockpiles. A senior U.S. official says Iran will be raised with both men, Ukraine will be avoided, and no agreements are expected.
The backdrop is stark. New START expired in February, removing caps on the largest arsenals for the first time in more than fifty years. Russia asked for a one-year extension; Trump refused and called for a new deal that includes China. Beijing has shown little interest. Its arsenal is estimated at over 600 warheads, far below the more than 5,000 each held by Washington and Moscow.
Each leader has his own reasons for attending. Xi may welcome a chance to show China's rising weight, while the Kremlin sees a seat beside Washington and Beijing as proof of its standing as a peer superpower. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has voiced fear that the meeting could become a venue for a deal over Kyiv's head. The gathering could also overshadow APEC itself, and complicate China's image as a champion of free trade and its claim that Western Cold War thinking helped cause the war in Ukraine. Whether China engages on arms control, and whether Ukraine quietly enters the room despite assurances, are the things to watch on Thursday.
The White House confirmed on Friday that the presidents of the United States, China and Russia plan to sit down together on Thursday in Shenzhen, on the sidelines of next week's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. No gathering of Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin has happened before, and the three lead the world's biggest nuclear powers. Analysts say expectations for a breakthrough are low and that the meeting will carry more symbolism than substance.
The timing is awkward for all three relationships. Trump has embraced Xi since the two reached a truce in their short-lived trade war last year, despite differences over the U.S. war with Iran and other frictions between the leading economies. He has likewise courted Putin, even as the Russian leader presses a war in Ukraine that is nearly five years old and as Moscow deepens its military, intelligence and diplomatic ties with Iran.
Trump has said the meeting is a chance to discuss the Iran war and to pursue a three-way agreement on nuclear stockpiles. A senior U.S. official, briefing reporters anonymously, said Trump will raise Iran with both men but will steer clear of Ukraine. The official described the session as the "beginning of hopefully a conversation" on nuclear disarmament and said no agreements are expected to be announced.
The arms question has a hard backdrop. The last nuclear pact between Washington and Moscow, New START, expired in February, lifting caps on the two largest arsenals for the first time in more than fifty years. Russia asked to extend it for another year. Trump refused and called instead for "a new, improved and modernized" deal that includes China.
China has shown little appetite. The Pentagon estimates its arsenal at more than 600 warheads, against more than 5,000 each for the United States and Russia. U.S. officials concede the subject is difficult for Beijing, but the senior official said the meeting is the moment for China to "step up ... to the adult table."
Each host and guest has its own calculation. Xi may see a chance to display China's growing clout. For the Kremlin, sitting alongside Washington and Beijing is a coveted opportunity to look like a peer superpower. Edgard Kagan, a former U.S. ambassador to Malaysia now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Putin's aim is to signal that the three are making decisions on Ukraine, something Ukrainians and Europeans dislike. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has voiced concern that the meeting could become a venue for a Ukraine deal struck behind Kyiv's back.
The meeting could also overshadow APEC itself, which brings 21 economies to a city that grew from a small fishing village into a global technology hub within a few decades. Hoo Tiang Boon, a professor of Chinese foreign policy at Nanyang Technological University, noted it could cut against China's pose as a defender of free trade: "You sort of run counter to Chinese support of multilateralism." It could also muddy Beijing's argument that Western Cold War thinking helped cause the Ukraine war, and its criticism that the U.S. has undermined international institutions and treaties in how it has waged war on Iran.
The leaders know each other well in pairs. Putin and Xi have met more than 40 times since Xi became president in 2013 and call each other "dear friend." Trump and Putin have met face to face seven times, most recently in Alaska in August 2025. Trump and Xi have met eight times, including Xi's state visit to Washington in September. China is Russia's top trading partner, buying more Russian energy and supplying key technologies, including high-tech components for weapons industries, since the 2022 invasion. Beijing says it is neutral on Ukraine, and Moscow has repeatedly backed China's position on Taiwan. Trump recently waived sanctions to allow Russia to sell millions of tons of diesel, blaming high energy prices on Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, though analysts attribute the rise mostly to the Iran war.
Some have compared the plan to the 1945 Yalta Conference. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected that, saying agreements reached in Shenzhen cannot be imposed on others. What to watch Thursday is whether China engages at all on arms control, and whether Ukraine enters the room despite Washington's assurances.
Citações Notáveis
The meeting is the beginning of hopefully a conversation on nuclear disarmament, and no agreements are expected.— Senior U.S. official, speaking anonymously
A meeting like this runs counter to Chinese support of multilateralism.— Hoo Tiang Boon, Nanyang Technological University
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