Trump, Xi and Putin Plan Unprecedented Three-Way Meeting on APEC Sidelines in Shenzhen

The White House confirmed on Friday that the leaders of the United States, China and Russia plan to sit down together on Thursday in Shenzhen, on the sidelines of next week's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. No gathering of the three men who lead the world's biggest nuclear powers has happened before. Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin will be in the room, in China's technology hub.

Analysts say not to expect much. They describe the meeting as heavier on symbolism than substance, with low odds of a major breakthrough. A senior U.S. official, who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity, said no agreements are expected to be announced. The official called the session the "beginning of hopefully a conversation" on nuclear disarmament that could prove productive down the road.

The backdrop is the end of the last nuclear arms pact between Russia and the United States. New START expired in February, lifting caps on the two largest atomic arsenals for the first time in more than fifty years. Russia had asked to extend the deal another year. Trump refused, calling instead for "a new, improved and modernized" agreement that includes China.

That is the difficulty. Pentagon estimates put China's arsenal at more than 600 warheads, while the U.S. and Russia are each believed to hold more than 5,000. With its stockpile so much smaller, Beijing has shown little interest in a nuclear pact. Administration officials acknowledge it is a hard subject for China, though the senior official framed the meeting as a chance for China to "step up ... to the adult table."

Trump also plans to raise the U.S. war with Iran with Xi and Putin, the official said, but will steer clear of Ukraine. Relations among the three are tangled. Trump has embraced Xi since a truce in their short-lived trade war last year, despite disagreements over the Iran war and other tensions. He has also courted Putin even as Russia presses its nearly five-year-old war in Ukraine and deepens its military, intelligence and diplomatic ties with Iran. Trump recently struck a diesel deal with Russia, waiving sanctions to allow the sale of millions of tons of fuel. He has blamed rising energy prices on Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, though analysts attribute the climb in crude prices mostly to the Iran war.

Each capital has its own reasons to attend. Xi may see a chance to show off China's growing clout, and the meeting could eclipse the APEC summit, which brings 21 economies to Shenzhen, a city that grew from a small fishing village into a global technology hub within a few decades. Yet Hoo Tiang Boon, a professor of Chinese foreign policy at Nanyang Technological University, said it could undercut Beijing's image as a champion of free trade at APEC: "You sort of run counter to Chinese support of multilateralism." It could also muddy China's argument that a Cold War mentality in the West helped cause Russia's invasion, and its criticism that Washington has undermined international institutions and treaties in how it waged the Iran war. Beijing was the party least certain about the meeting's value.

For the Kremlin, the meeting is a coveted chance to appear a superpower equal to Washington and Beijing. Edgard Kagan, a former U.S. ambassador to Malaysia now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Putin's aim was signaling that he and Xi, alongside Trump, are making decisions on Ukraine, something Ukrainians and Europeans dislike. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has voiced concern that the meeting could become a venue for a Ukraine deal struck behind Kyiv's back.

The pairings are familiar. Putin and Xi have met more than 40 times since Xi became president in 2013 and call each other "dear friend." China is Russia's top trading partner, buying more Russian energy and supplying key technologies, including components for weapons industries, since the 2022 invasion. Trump and Putin have met seven times, most recently in Alaska in August 2025. Trump and Xi have held face-to-face talks eight times, including Xi's state visit to Washington in September.

Some have likened the plan to the 1945 Yalta Conference. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected that, noting that agreements reached in Shenzhen cannot be enforced on others. What to watch is whether Ukraine and Iran actually enter the discussion, and whether Beijing engages on arms control at all.