In a moment that speaks to the fragile architecture of a world still shaped by nuclear fear, the leaders of America, China and Russia are preparing to sit at one table on the sidelines of a regional trade summit in Shenzhen. The meeting, if it happens, would mark the first time the three most powerful nuclear states have gathered as a trio, and it arrives after the last binding limits on the two largest arsenals lapsed in February. Those who study these rooms expect more symbolism than substance, a gathering that signals intent rather than settles anything, while Ukraine and Europe watch with
Trump, Xi and Putin Plan Unprecedented Three-Way Meeting on APEC Sidelines in Shenzhen
The first gathering of the three biggest nuclear powers' leaders
Mark
Why does a meeting with no expected agreements still matter?
Mimi
Because of who is in the room. Three leaders who command the largest nuclear arsenals have never sat down together, and New START expired in February, so no cap now limits the U.S. and Russian stockpiles.
Mark
Trump wants China in a deal. Does Beijing?
Mimi
Not much, by the reporting. China has over 600 warheads against more than 5,000 each for the U.S. and Russia, and it has shown little interest in a pact.
Luke
Worth noting that the 600 figure is a Pentagon estimate, not a Chinese declaration. And the claim that no agreements are expected comes from one anonymous senior U.S. official.
Mark
Why would Xi host it, then?
Mimi
Analysts suggest prestige. Kagan and others read it as a chance to show clout. But Hoo Tiang Boon points out it cuts against China's image as a champion of multilateralism at APEC.
Luke
Those are analysts' readings of motive. Nobody from Beijing is quoted explaining why it agreed.
Mark
And Ukraine?
Mimi
The U.S. official says Trump will avoid it, yet Zelenskyy fears a deal made behind Kyiv's back, and Kagan says Putin wants to look like a decision-maker on Ukraine.
Luke
Right, so we have a stated plan to skip Ukraine and a stated fear that it will be discussed. Until Thursday, neither is confirmed. Peskov's point about Yalta is also only the Kremlin's framing.
The Pulse
- The first-ever trilateral summit of Trump, Xi and Putin is set to unfold on the sidelines of APEC in Shenzhen, and no one expects it to produce signed agreements.
- With New START expired in February, the two largest arsenals are unrestrained for the first time in over fifty years, and Washington is pushing for a new pact that includes China.
- Beijing, holding far fewer warheads than the United States or Russia, shows little appetite for a nuclear deal, leaving the talks stalled before they begin.
- Kyiv fears a Yalta-style bargain struck over its head, while Moscow and Beijing gain prestige from a seat beside Washington.
- The Iran war and a diesel deal with Russia sit on the table, and the true test is whether Ukraine creeps into the conversation despite pledges to avoid it.
In a moment that speaks to the fragile architecture of a world still shaped by nuclear fear, the leaders of America, China and Russia are preparing to sit at one table on the sidelines of a regional trade summit in Shenzhen. The meeting, if it happens, would mark the first time the three most powerful nuclear states have gathered as a trio, and it arrives after the last binding limits on the two largest arsenals lapsed in February. Those who study these rooms expect more symbolism than substance, a gathering that signals intent rather than settles anything, while Ukraine and Europe watch with unease for signs that their fate is being discussed without them.
The White House has confirmed that Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin plan to meet together on Thursday, on the margins of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen. If it happens, it will be the first time the leaders of the world's three biggest nuclear powers have sat down as a trio, in a city that rose from a fishing village to a global technology hub within a few decades.
A senior U.S. official says the meeting is meant to start nuclear talks, not to produce agreements. The urgency comes from New START's expiration in February, which removed limits on the two largest arsenals for the first time in more than fifty years. Russia offered to extend the treaty for a year; Trump refused and asked for a modernized deal that includes China. Beijing, whose arsenal Pentagon estimates put above 600 warheads against more than 5,000 each for Washington and Moscow, has little interest in such a pact.
Each guest sees something to gain. Xi can showcase China's clout, and the Kremlin relishes appearing as a superpower on equal footing with Washington and Beijing. Yet analysts warn the gathering could overshadow APEC and undercut China's claim to champion free trade and multilateralism. Ukraine is watching nervously, fearing its war could be settled behind Kyiv's back. Some have invoked the 1945 Yalta Conference, though the Kremlin rejects the comparison.
The question for Thursday is whether Ukraine comes up despite the plan to avoid it, and how Kyiv and European capitals respond.
The White House confirmed on Friday that Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin plan to sit down together on Thursday, on the sidelines of next week's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in the Chinese tech hub of Shenzhen. It would be the first time the leaders of the world's three biggest nuclear powers have met as a trio.
Analysts quoted in the reporting say the moment will carry more symbolism than substance. A senior U.S. official, speaking to reporters on condition of anonymity, said the meeting is expected to serve as a start to nuclear talks among the three, and that no agreements are expected to be announced.
The backdrop is complicated. Trump has embraced Xi warmly since the two reached a truce in their short-lived trade war last year, despite differences over the U.S. war with Iran and other tensions between the two economic giants. He has also worked at building a relationship with Putin, even as Russia presses on with its nearly five-year-old war in Ukraine and deepens its military, intelligence and diplomatic partnership with Iran. Trump has said the meeting is a chance to discuss the Iran war and to pursue a three-way agreement on nuclear stockpiles. The U.S. official said he does plan to raise Iran with Xi and Putin but will steer away from Ukraine.
The arms question has a hard deadline behind it. The last nuclear pact between Russia and the United States, New START, expired in February, lifting caps on the two largest atomic arsenals for the first time in more than fifty years. Russia had proposed extending the deal for another year. Trump rejected that and called instead for a new, improved and modernized agreement that includes China.
China is the obstacle. Pentagon estimates put its arsenal at more than 600 warheads, while the United States and Russia are each estimated to hold more than 5,000. With its stockpile dwarfed in that way, Beijing has shown little interest in a nuclear pact, and it was the party least certain of the summit's value.
Each host and guest may still see an upside. By hosting, Xi may be calculating that he can showcase China's growing clout and prestige. For the Kremlin, sitting at the table is a coveted chance to look like a superpower on par with Washington and Beijing. Edgard Kagan, a former U.S. ambassador to Malaysia now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the key for Putin was signaling that he and Xi are talking with Trump in a way that suggests they are making decisions on Ukraine, something Ukrainians and Europeans dislike. The trilateral could also overshadow APEC itself, which brings 21 economies to a city that grew from a small fishing village into a global technology hub within a few decades. Hoo Tiang Boon, a professor of Chinese foreign policy at Nanyang Technological University, said such a meeting runs counter to China's support for multilateralism and could undercut its push to present itself as a defender of free trade at APEC. It could also muddy Beijing's argument that a Cold War mentality in the West helped lead to the Ukraine war, and its criticism that the U.S. has undermined international institutions and treaties in how it has waged war on Iran.
The pairs have plenty of history. Xi and Putin have met more than 40 times since Xi became president in 2013, addressing each other as "dear friend." Trump and Putin have met face to face seven times, most recently in Alaska in August 2025. Xi and Trump have held eight in-person talks, including Xi's state visit to Washington in September. China is Russia's top trading partner, a tie that has strengthened since Putin sent troops into Ukraine in 2022. As the EU and the West tried to isolate Russia economically, China increased its purchases of Russian energy and became Moscow's principal supplier of key technologies, including high-tech components for Russian weapons industries, ignoring Western demands to stop. Before the invasion the two declared a "no-limits friendship." Beijing officially calls itself neutral while blaming Kyiv's Western allies for provoking Russia, and Moscow has repeatedly backed China's position on Taiwan.
Ukraine is watching nervously. Trump recently struck a diesel deal with Russia, waiving sanctions and allowing the sale of millions of tons of fuel; he has blamed surging energy prices on Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, though analysts say the Iran war is the main driver. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has voiced concern that the meeting could become a venue for discussing a Ukraine deal behind Kyiv's back. Some have compared the planning to the 1945 Yalta Conference, where the U.S., Britain and the Soviet Union agreed to split Germany and Berlin into four occupation zones. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed the comparison, noting that agreements reached in Shenzhen could not be imposed on others, and called a meeting of the three leaders extremely significant.
What to watch Thursday is whether Ukraine comes up despite the stated plan to avoid it, and how Kyiv and European capitals respond.
Notable Quotes
A meeting between the leaders of Russia, China and the United States is extremely significant, but no one should try to impose a view of global order.— Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman (paraphrased)
Such a meeting runs counter to Chinese support of multilateralism.— Hoo Tiang Boon, Nanyang Technological University (paraphrased)
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