On the eve of a gathering that has never before been possible, the leaders of the three largest nuclear powers are preparing to meet in Shenzhen, on the margins of an Asia-Pacific trade summit. The White House says they will speak of the war in Iran and of a possible three-way arms arrangement, while the war in Ukraine is set aside. Yet the old wisdom of diplomacy holds that a meeting's weight is not always measured by its outcomes; for many observers, the significance lies in the simple fact of the three of them seated together, and in the question of whether such a table can ever be made to
Trump, Xi and Putin Plan Unprecedented Three-Way Meeting on APEC Sidelines in Shenzhen
The first three-way meeting of the world's biggest nuclear powers
Mark
Why does a meeting this light on expected results still matter?
Mimi
Because of who is in the room. It's the first time the three leaders have met together, and New START expired in February, so there are no caps on the two largest arsenals for the first time in over fifty years.
Mark
And the stated goal is a three-way nuclear deal?
Mimi
Trump wants one that includes China. A senior U.S. official called this the beginning of a conversation and said no agreements are expected.
Luke
Worth noting that framing comes from one anonymous U.S. official. We don't have Beijing's or Moscow's account of the agenda.
Mark
Why would China hesitate?
Mimi
The numbers. Pentagon estimates put China above 600 warheads, against more than 5,000 each for the U.S. and Russia. Beijing has shown little interest in a pact.
Luke
Those are estimates, and the Pentagon's, not figures China has confirmed.
Mark
What about Ukraine?
Mimi
The U.S. says it will avoid the topic. Zelenskyy fears a deal behind Kyiv's back, and Kagan says Putin wants to signal that he and Xi are deciding things.
Luke
Kagan is reading intent. What was actually said in the room is unknown, and the source gives no sign Ukraine will be on the table.
Mark
And the Yalta comparison?
Mimi
Peskov rejected it, saying anything agreed in Shenzhen can't be imposed on others.
Il Polso
- The first-ever sit-down of Trump, Xi and Putin is set for Thursday, and the world's nuclear anxieties are already crowding the room.
- With the last U.S.-Russia arms limits gone since February, Washington is pressing Beijing to join a new nuclear pact that China shows little appetite to sign.
- Kyiv fears its war is being traded over its head, and Ukrainian and European objections are already gathering like weather.
- Beijing risks blurring its own message of free trade and multilateralism at the very summit meant to showcase its leadership, and analysts expect symbolism rather than breakthroughs.
On the eve of a gathering that has never before been possible, the leaders of the three largest nuclear powers are preparing to meet in Shenzhen, on the margins of an Asia-Pacific trade summit. The White House says they will speak of the war in Iran and of a possible three-way arms arrangement, while the war in Ukraine is set aside. Yet the old wisdom of diplomacy holds that a meeting's weight is not always measured by its outcomes; for many observers, the significance lies in the simple fact of the three of them seated together, and in the question of whether such a table can ever be made to hold a treaty.
The White House has confirmed that Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin plan to meet on Thursday in Shenzhen, on the sidelines of next week's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. No such gathering has ever taken place, and the three lead the world's largest nuclear arsenals. Analysts expect more ceremony than substance.
A senior U.S. official described the agenda: the Iran war, and an opening of talks toward a three-way nuclear stockpile agreement, with Ukraine deliberately left aside. No deal is expected to be announced. The arms question carries new urgency, since the New START treaty between Washington and Moscow expired in February, and Trump refused Russia's offer of a one-year extension, asking instead for a modernized pact that includes China. China's arsenal, estimated at more than 600 warheads, is far smaller than the roughly 5,000 each held by the U.S. and Russia, and Beijing has been cool to the idea.
Each leader sees something to gain. Xi can display China's rising stature in Shenzhen, a city that grew from a fishing village into a technology hub. Putin wants to appear the equal of Washington and Beijing. Yet China may pay a price, because the meeting could undercut its arguments that Western Cold War thinking fueled the Ukraine conflict and that the U.S. has damaged international institutions through its war on Iran. A Singapore-based scholar warned it could cut against Beijing's bid to present itself as a champion of free trade.
The three know one another well. Xi and Putin have met more than forty times, and Trump has met Putin seven times and Xi eight. Zelenskyy has voiced fear that Kyiv could be bargained away, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed comparisons to the 1945 Yalta Conference, insisting nothing agreed in Shenzhen could bind others. What happens next will depend on how Ukraine and Europe respond, and on whether the session can sit alongside China's message at APEC.
The White House confirmed on Friday that the presidents of the United States and China and the president of Russia plan to sit down together on Thursday in Shenzhen, on the sidelines of next week's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. No meeting of Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin has happened before, and the three lead the world's biggest nuclear powers. Analysts quoted in the reporting say expectations for breakthroughs are low and that the encounter will carry more symbolism than substance.
The agenda, as described by a senior U.S. official who briefed reporters anonymously, centers on two things. Trump intends to raise the U.S. war with Iran with both men, and he wants to open talk of a three-way agreement on nuclear stockpiles. He will steer away from Ukraine. The official called the session the start of what is hoped to be a conversation on nuclear disarmament that can be productive going forward, and said no agreements are expected to be announced.
The arms question has a fresh edge. The last nuclear pact between Russia and the United States, New START, expired in February, removing limits on the two largest arsenals for the first time in more than fifty years. Russia had asked to extend it another year. Trump refused and called instead for a new, improved and modernized deal that includes China.
China is the hard part. Pentagon estimates put its arsenal at more than 600 warheads, while the U.S. and Russia are each estimated to hold more than 5,000. Given that gap, Beijing has shown little appetite for a pact. Administration officials concede the subject is difficult for China, but the senior official described the meeting as a chance for Beijing to step up to the adult table. The report notes that Beijing was the least certain of the three about the summit's value.
Each leader may see something to gain. Xi, by hosting, can show China's growing clout. Shenzhen, which grew from a small fishing village into a global technology hub within a few decades, is welcoming 21 economies to APEC, and the trilateral could overshadow that showcase. For the Kremlin, the meeting is a coveted opportunity to appear as a superpower equal to Washington and Beijing. Edgard Kagan, a former U.S. ambassador to Malaysia now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Putin's aim was to signal that he and Xi are making decisions on Ukraine, something Ukrainians and Europeans dislike.
There is a cost for China. The gathering could muddy its argument that a Cold War mentality in the West helped lead to Russia's war, and its criticism that the U.S. has undermined international institutions and treaties in the way it has waged war on Iran. Hoo Tiang Boon, a professor of Chinese foreign policy at Nanyang Technological University, said it could cut against Beijing's APEC pitch as a defender of free trade: "You sort of run counter to Chinese support of multilateralism."
The leaders know one another well in pairs. Xi and Putin have met more than 40 times since 2013 and call each other "dear friend." Trump and Putin have met face-to-face seven times, most recently in Alaska in August 2025. Trump and Xi have held eight in-person talks, including Xi's state visit to Washington in September. Beijing is Moscow's top trading partner, a tie that has deepened since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, with China buying more Russian energy and supplying key technologies, including high-tech components for Russian weapons industries. China says it is neutral on the war, and Moscow backs Beijing's position on Taiwan.
Trump has been warm toward both. He embraced Xi after a truce in last year's short trade war, despite disagreements over Iran. He has courted Putin even as Russia presses its nearly five-year war and deepens military, intelligence and diplomatic ties with Iran. Trump recently struck a diesel deal waiving sanctions on Moscow to allow the sale of millions of tons of fuel, blaming high energy prices on Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, though analysts attribute the rise mostly to the Iran war.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has voiced concern that the meeting could become a venue for discussing a Ukraine deal behind Kyiv's back. Comparisons have been drawn to the 1945 Yalta Conference. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed them, saying agreements reached in Shenzhen cannot be enforced on others. The meeting is "extremely significant," he said, but a global order should rest on mutual benefit and respect. Watch next for Ukrainian and European reaction, and for how the session sits beside China's free-trade message at APEC.
Citazioni salienti
The meeting is meant to be the beginning of hopefully a conversation on nuclear disarmament; no agreements are expected to be announced.— Senior U.S. official, speaking anonymously
Any agreements reached in Shenzhen can't be enforced on others.— Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman (paraphrase)
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