On a Thursday in Shenzhen, on the margins of an Asia-Pacific gathering, the leaders of America, China and Russia are set to sit together for the first time, three men who command the largest nuclear arsenals on earth. Few expect the room to yield agreements; its weight lies in the simple fact of the gathering, in the old question of whether great powers can speak across their divides about the weapons that threaten everyone. The shadow of a treaty that lapsed in February hangs over the table, and so does a war in Ukraine that its neighbors fear will be settled without them. Whether this become
Trump, Xi and Putin Plan Unprecedented Three-Way Meeting on APEC Sidelines in Shenzhen
The picture itself is the news.
Mark
Why does a meeting with no expected agreements matter?
Mimi
Because of who is in the room. These are the three leaders whose countries hold the largest nuclear arsenals, and they have never sat down together. The picture itself is the news.
Mark
And the nuclear question is behind it?
Mimi
Partly. New START expired in February, so there are no caps on the U.S. and Russian arsenals. Trump wants China in any new deal, but China has about 600 warheads against more than 5,000 each for the others.
Luke
Those numbers are Pentagon estimates for China, and the 5,000-plus figures are also estimates. Worth keeping that in mind.
Mark
What does each leader get out of it?
Mimi
Xi gets to show off clout and host. Putin gets to look like a peer of Washington and Beijing. Trump gets his stated chance to talk Iran and arms control.
Luke
Those are analysts' readings of motive. Nobody on the record has confirmed them, apart from the U.S. aims the official described.
Mark
What about Ukraine?
Mimi
The U.S. official says Trump will steer away from it. Zelenskyy fears a deal behind Kyiv's back, and Kagan says Putin wants to signal that decisions on Ukraine are being made among the big powers.
Luke
So the stated agenda leaves Ukraine out, and the fear is about what might happen anyway. Nothing confirmed suggests a Ukraine deal is planned.
Mark
Could it hurt China?
Mimi
Hoo Tiang Boon thinks it clashes with Beijing's message of multilateralism and free trade at APEC.
Luke
That's one professor's assessment, and what actually comes out of Thursday is still unknown.
Le Pouls
- The first-ever meeting of the presidents of the United States, China and Russia is being set on the sidelines of APEC in Shenzhen, and no one expects a signed deal.
- New START has expired, lifting caps on the two largest arsenals for the first time in over fifty years, and Washington's demand for a deal that includes China meets Beijing's reluctance.
- Kyiv fears a Ukraine settlement brokered behind its back, and Kremlin denials have not quieted comparisons to Yalta.
- China risks its image as a champion of multilateralism and free trade if the summit overshadows its showcase city.
- Trump is steering the agenda toward Iran and arms control while avoiding Ukraine, and the outcome will show whether the meeting becomes a start or remains symbolism.
On a Thursday in Shenzhen, on the margins of an Asia-Pacific gathering, the leaders of America, China and Russia are set to sit together for the first time, three men who command the largest nuclear arsenals on earth. Few expect the room to yield agreements; its weight lies in the simple fact of the gathering, in the old question of whether great powers can speak across their divides about the weapons that threaten everyone. The shadow of a treaty that lapsed in February hangs over the table, and so does a war in Ukraine that its neighbors fear will be settled without them. Whether this becomes the opening of a long, difficult conversation or only a photograph remains for the future to show.
On Thursday, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, the presidents of the United States, China and Russia plan to sit down together. It would be the first time these three leaders, whose countries hold the world's largest nuclear arsenals, have met in this way. The White House confirmed the plan, and a senior U.S. official said no agreements are expected, describing the session as perhaps the start of a disarmament conversation that could bear fruit later.
The arms question is the sharpest edge. New START expired in February, removing limits on the two largest American and Russian arsenals. Moscow wanted a one-year extension; Trump instead called for a new, modernized deal that includes China. But China's arsenal, estimated above 600 warheads, is far smaller than the more than 5,000 each held by Washington and Moscow, and Beijing has shown little appetite for a pact.
Each host and guest sees gain. Xi may want to showcase China's growing clout in Shenzhen, a city that rose from a fishing village into a technology hub. For Putin, a seat beside Washington and Beijing offers the look of a superpower peer. Analysts warn, however, that the optics could cut against Beijing, muddying its claims to defend free trade and multilateralism.
The ties among these leaders are long and personal. Putin and Xi have met more than forty times, and Trump has met both men repeatedly. Yet the relationships are tangled: China has deepened its economic lifeline to Russia since the 2022 invasion, and Trump has recently eased sanctions on Russian fuel sales.
In Kyiv, President Zelenskyy worries that the meeting could become a venue for a deal struck without Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected comparisons to the Yalta Conference, saying nothing agreed in Shenzhen could be imposed on others. Whether Iran and nuclear arms dominate the talks, and whether Ukraine stays off the table, will tell the story of Thursday.
On Thursday, on the sidelines of next week's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, the presidents of the United States, China and Russia plan to sit down together. No such meeting of these three leaders, whose countries hold the world's largest nuclear arsenals, has happened before. The White House confirmed the plan on Friday.
Analysts expect little to come of it. They describe a meeting heavier in symbolism than substance, and a senior U.S. official, speaking to reporters on condition of anonymity, said no agreements are expected to be announced. The official described the session as the possible beginning of a conversation on nuclear disarmament that could prove productive later. Trump has said he wants to discuss the U.S. war with Iran and to pursue a three-way agreement on nuclear stockpiles. According to the official, he will take up Iran with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin but will steer away from Ukraine.
The arms question has a sharp edge. The last nuclear pact between Washington and Moscow, New START, expired in February, lifting caps on the two largest atomic arsenals for the first time in more than fifty years. Russia asked to extend it for another year. Trump refused and called instead for a new, improved and modernized deal that includes China. The difficulty is arithmetic: Pentagon estimates put China's arsenal at more than 600 warheads, while the United States and Russia are each thought to hold more than 5,000. China has shown little interest in a pact. U.S. officials concede the subject is hard for Beijing, but the senior official called the meeting a chance for China to step up to the adult table.
Each host and guest has something to gain. By hosting, Xi may be looking to display China's growing clout. For the Kremlin, sitting alongside Washington and Beijing is a coveted chance to look like a superpower on par with them. Edgard Kagan, a former U.S. ambassador to Malaysia now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Putin's aim was to signal that he and Xi are making decisions on Ukraine, something Ukrainians and Europeans dislike.
Beijing may also pay a price. The APEC summit brings 21 economies to Shenzhen, a showcase city that grew from a small fishing village into a technology and economic hub within a few decades, and the trilateral could overshadow it. Hoo Tiang Boon, a professor of Chinese foreign policy at Nanyang Technological University, said it would run counter to Chinese support for multilateralism and could undercut Beijing's portrayal of itself as a defender of free trade. It could also muddy China's argument that a Cold War mentality in the West helped cause Russia's war on Ukraine, and its criticism that the U.S. has undermined international institutions and treaties in the way it has waged war on Iran.
The leaders know one another. Putin and Xi have met more than 40 times since Xi became president in 2013 and call each other "dear friend." Trump and Putin have met face-to-face seven times, most recently in Alaska in August 2025. Trump and Xi have met eight times, including Xi's September state visit to Washington. Trump has embraced Xi since a truce in their short-lived trade war last year, despite differences over Iran. He has also courted Putin even as Russia continues its nearly five-year war in Ukraine and deepens its military, intelligence and diplomatic ties with Iran.
China is Russia's top trading partner, a bond that has tightened since the 2022 invasion. As the EU and the West tried to isolate Russia economically, Beijing bought more Russian energy and became Moscow's main supplier of key technologies, including high-tech components for its weapons industries, ignoring Western demands to stop. Before the invasion, Xi and Putin declared a "no-limits friendship." China calls itself neutral and says Kyiv's Western allies helped provoke Russia, while Moscow backs Beijing's policy on Taiwan. Trump also recently struck a diesel deal with Russia, waiving sanctions to allow the sale of millions of tons of fuel. He blames surging energy prices on Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries; analysts attribute the rise in crude prices mostly to the Iran war.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has voiced concern that the meeting could become a venue for a Ukraine deal struck behind Kyiv's back. Comparisons to the 1945 Yalta Conference, where the U.S., Britain and the Soviet Union divided Germany and Berlin into four occupation zones and finalized the United Nations, have followed. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed them, noting that anything agreed in Shenzhen cannot be imposed on others. Whether Iran and nuclear arms dominate the talks, and whether Ukraine stays off the table, is what to watch on Thursday.
Citations marquantes
The meeting is hoped to be the beginning of a conversation on nuclear disarmament, and no agreements are expected to be announced.— Senior U.S. official, speaking anonymously
The trilateral runs counter to Chinese support of multilateralism.— Hoo Tiang Boon, Nanyang Technological University
Envie de l'histoire complète ?
Lire l'original sur NBC 5 Chicago ↗