In a moment when the old scaffolding of arms control lies in pieces, the three nations that hold the largest nuclear arsenals are preparing to sit at one table for the first time. The gathering, set on the margins of a regional trade summit in Shenzhen, is expected to yield more gesture than settlement, since the arrangements that once bounded the world's two largest stockpiles lapsed in February and no one has yet agreed on what should replace them. Beneath the diplomacy lies a familiar human unease: powers that wish to be seen as equals, and a smaller nation whose fate may be discussed in ro
Trump, Xi and Putin Plan Unprecedented Three-Way Meeting at APEC in Shenzhen
In a moment when the old scaffolding of arms control lies in pieces, the three nations that hold the largest nuclear arsenals are preparing to sit at one table for the first time. The gathering, set on the margins of a regional trade summit in Shenzhen, is expected to yield more gesture than settlement, since the arrangements that once bounded the world's two largest stockpiles lapsed in February and no one has yet agreed on what should replace them. Beneath the diplomacy lies a familiar human unease: powers that wish to be seen as equals, and a smaller nation whose fate may be discussed in rooms it does not enter.
The White House has confirmed that President Donald Trump, Xi Jinping of China and Vladimir Putin of Russia will sit down together next Thursday on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen. No meeting of the leaders of the world's three largest nuclear powers has ever taken place, and the people who have studied the moment expect more symbolism than substance.
The urgency comes from a lapsed promise. New START, the last nuclear pact between Washington and Moscow, expired in February, removing limits on the two biggest arsenals for the first time in over fifty years. Russia asked for a one-year extension, but Trump declined and called instead for a new agreement that would bring China in. The numbers make that hard: China is estimated to hold more than 600 warheads, while the United States and Russia each hold more than 5,000, and Beijing has shown little appetite for any pact.
Each leader comes with his own purpose. Trump wants to discuss the war with Iran and a three-way deal on stockpiles, though a senior official says Ukraine will be avoided. Xi, as host, may see a chance to display China's growing influence, yet the meeting could overshadow the APEC summit and cut against Beijing's image as a champion of free trade. Putin hopes to appear a superpower equal to Washington and Beijing, and analysts say he wants to show that Ukraine's future is being decided with Trump.
The bonds between the three are uneven. Xi and Putin have met more than forty times and call each other dear friend, and China has become Russia's main trading partner and technology supplier since the 2022 invasion. Trump has met Putin seven times and Xi eight, and recently struck a diesel deal with Russia that eases sanctions.
For Kyiv, the fear is simple. President Zelenskyy worries that a Ukraine settlement could take shape behind his back, and some have likened the planning to the Yalta Conference of 1945. The Kremlin has rejected the comparison. What the world will watch on Thursday is whether China will engage on nuclear limits at all, and how Iran and Ukraine are handled in the room.
The White House confirmed on Friday that President Donald Trump, China's Xi Jinping and Russia's Vladimir Putin plan to sit down together next Thursday, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, China. No such three-way meeting of the leaders of the world's largest nuclear powers has happened before.
Analysts quoted in the reporting say expectations are low. They describe a meeting heavier in symbolism than substance. A senior U.S. official, who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity, said it is expected to serve as the start of nuclear talks among the three and that no agreements are expected to be announced. Trump has said he wants to use the occasion to discuss the U.S. war with Iran and to pursue a three-way deal on nuclear stockpiles. The official said he will raise Iran with Xi and Putin but will steer away from Ukraine.
The arms question has a hard deadline behind it. The last nuclear pact between Russia and the United States, New START, expired in February, lifting caps on the two largest arsenals for the first time in more than 50 years. Russia had asked to extend it another year. Trump declined and called instead for "a new, improved and modernized" deal that includes China. But the numbers make that difficult: Pentagon estimates put China's arsenal at more than 600 warheads, while the U.S. and Russia are each estimated to hold more than 5,000. China has shown little interest in a nuclear pact.
Each leader arrives with a different calculation. Beijing appeared the least certain of the meeting's value, though by hosting it Xi may see a chance to display China's growing clout. For the Kremlin, it is a chance to be seen as a superpower on par with Washington and Beijing. Edgard Kagan, a former U.S. ambassador to Malaysia now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Putin's aim was to signal that he and Xi are making decisions on Ukraine with Trump, something Ukrainians and Europeans dislike.
The meeting could also cost China something. It may overshadow the APEC summit itself, which brings 21 economies to Shenzhen, a coastal city that grew from a small fishing village into a global technology hub within a few decades. Hoo Tiang Boon, a professor of Chinese foreign policy at Nanyang Technological University, said a gathering of this kind cuts against China's push to present itself as a defender of free trade and multilateralism. It could also muddy Beijing's argument that Western Cold War thinking helped lead to Russia's war in Ukraine, and its criticism that the U.S. has undermined international institutions and treaties in how it has waged war on Iran.
The leaders know one another well in pairs. Xi and Putin have met more than 40 times since Xi became president in 2013 and call each other "dear friend." Trump and Putin have met face to face seven times, most recently in Alaska in August 2025. Trump and Xi have held eight in-person talks, including Xi's state visit to Washington in September. Trump has embraced Xi after a truce in their short-lived trade war last year, despite differences over Iran and other tensions, and has sought a closer relationship with Putin even as Russia's war in Ukraine nears its fifth year and Moscow deepens its military, intelligence and diplomatic ties with Iran.
China is Russia's top trading partner, a bond that has strengthened since the 2022 invasion. As the EU and the West tried to isolate Russia economically, China bought more Russian energy and became its main supplier of key technologies, including high-tech components for weapons industries, ignoring Western demands to stop. Before the invasion, Xi and Putin declared a "no-limits friendship." China officially calls itself neutral, while charging that Kyiv's Western allies helped provoke the war. Moscow has repeatedly backed Beijing's policy on Taiwan. Trump, for his part, recently struck a diesel deal with Russia that waives sanctions and allows the sale of millions of tons of fuel. He has blamed high energy prices on Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, though analysts say the Iran war is the main driver of higher crude prices.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has voiced concern that the meeting could become a venue for discussing a Ukraine deal behind Kyiv's back. Some have compared the planning to the 1945 Yalta Conference, where the U.S., Britain and the Soviet Union agreed to divide Germany and Berlin into four occupation zones and finalized plans for the United Nations. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected the comparison, noting that agreements reached in Shenzhen cannot be imposed on others. What to watch Thursday is whether China engages at all on nuclear limits, and how Iran and Ukraine are handled.
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