Three leaders who have spent years circling one another are set to share a room in Shenzhen, a city that itself once was a fishing village and later became a symbol of China's rise. The United States, China and Russia, holding the largest nuclear arsenals in the world, are weighing a first-ever meeting on the margins of an economic summit, at a time when the last treaty limiting the two largest stockpiles has lapsed and the wars in Ukraine and Iran remain unsettled. Little is expected to be signed, yet the gathering reveals how power is being rearranged: each leader seeks recognition, and the
Trump, Xi and Putin Plan Unprecedented Joint Meeting on APEC Sidelines in Shenzhen
The first gathering of the three biggest nuclear powers in one room
Why does a meeting with no expected agreements still matter?
Because it hasn't happened before. The three leaders of the biggest nuclear powers have never sat together, and New START expired in February, so there are no caps on the two largest arsenals for the first time in over fifty years.
Trump wants China included in a deal. Is China interested?
Little so far. Pentagon estimates put its arsenal above 600 warheads, against more than 5,000 each for the U.S. and Russia. A pact would freeze that gap.
Worth saying that 600 is a Pentagon estimate, not a figure Beijing has confirmed. And the idea that the meeting starts nuclear talks comes from one anonymous senior U.S. official.
What does each side get out of showing up?
Xi gets to host and display Shenzhen and China's clout. Putin gets to look like a peer of Washington and Beijing. Analysts say Beijing was least certain, since it could clash with its free-trade, multilateralist message at APEC.
Those are analysts' readings of motive. Nobody in Beijing or Moscow has said that's the calculation.
And Ukraine?
The U.S. official says Trump will steer away from it, yet Zelenskyy fears a deal behind Kyiv's back. Peskov rejects the Yalta comparison, saying agreements couldn't be enforced on others.
So what's actually unknown is whether Ukraine comes up at all, and whether anything is agreed. The reporting can't answer either yet.
Il Polso
- Three nuclear superpowers are preparing to sit at one table for the first time, and the unprecedented nature of that gathering is already unsettling capitals.
- With New START expired and no successor in place, the absence of any limit on the two largest arsenals hangs over every handshake.
- Kyiv fears being bargained over behind its back, and Zelenskyy's warnings are pushing the meeting into a sharp diplomatic spotlight.
- Expectations are deliberately low: no agreements are expected, and the best hope is a procedural first step toward arms talks that may take a long time to materialize.
Three leaders who have spent years circling one another are set to share a room in Shenzhen, a city that itself once was a fishing village and later became a symbol of China's rise. The United States, China and Russia, holding the largest nuclear arsenals in the world, are weighing a first-ever meeting on the margins of an economic summit, at a time when the last treaty limiting the two largest stockpiles has lapsed and the wars in Ukraine and Iran remain unsettled. Little is expected to be signed, yet the gathering reveals how power is being rearranged: each leader seeks recognition, and the Ukrainians, who fear decisions about their own future may be made in their absence, watch closely.
The White House has confirmed that Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin plan to meet together on Thursday, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen. It would be the first time the leaders of the world's three largest nuclear powers have gathered in one room, and analysts expect more symbolism than substance.
The backdrop is the collapse of New START, which expired in February and removed limits on the two largest arsenals for the first time in more than fifty years. Trump rejected Russia's offer to extend it and instead called for a new deal that includes China, which holds far fewer warheads but has shown little interest in joining. Each leader comes with his own aims: Xi hopes to showcase China's prestige as host, Putin wants to appear a superpower equal to Washington and Beijing, and Trump plans to raise the Iran war while steering clear of Ukraine.
Ukraine's president has voiced fear that the talks could shape a settlement behind Kyiv's back, and some have compared the planning to the Yalta Conference of 1945. The Kremlin dismissed the comparison, saying agreements in Shenzhen could not be imposed on others. For Beijing, the meeting carries its own risks, since it sits uneasily with China's commitment to multilateralism. What to watch is whether the leaders take even a small procedural step toward a successor to New START, and how Iran and Ukraine are handled.
The White House confirmed on Friday that Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin plan to meet together on Thursday, on the sidelines of next week's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, China's technology hub. It would be the first gathering of the leaders of the world's three biggest nuclear powers in one room.
Analysts say the moment will carry more symbolism than substance. A senior U.S. official, who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity, said the meeting is expected to serve as a start to nuclear talks among the three and that no agreements are expected to be announced. Trump plans to raise the U.S. war with Iran with Xi and Putin, the official said, but intends to steer away from Ukraine.
The arms question is the backdrop. The last nuclear pact between Russia and the United States, New START, expired in February, removing caps on the two largest arsenals for the first time in more than fifty years. Russia had proposed extending it for another year. Trump refused and called instead for "a new, improved and modernized" deal that includes China. The difficulty is arithmetic: Pentagon estimates put China's arsenal at more than 600 warheads, while the United States and Russia each hold more than 5,000. With stockpiles that dwarf its own, Beijing has shown little interest in a nuclear pact.
Each leader arrives with a different calculation. Xi, as host, may see a chance to display China's growing clout and prestige. The summit brings 21 economies to Shenzhen, a coastal city that grew from a small fishing village into a global technology and economic center within a few decades. For the Kremlin, the meeting is a coveted chance to look like a superpower on par with Washington and Beijing. Edgard Kagan, a former U.S. ambassador to Malaysia now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Putin's aim was signaling that he and Xi are talking with Trump in a way that suggests they are making decisions on Ukraine, something Ukrainians and Europeans dislike.
Beijing appeared least certain about the value of the summit, and it may pay a price. Hoo Tiang Boon, a professor of Chinese foreign policy at Nanyang Technological University, said a trilateral of this kind runs counter to China's support for multilateralism and could undercut its effort to present itself at APEC as a defender of free trade. It could also muddy China's argument that a Cold War mentality in the West helped drive Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and its criticism that the U.S. has undermined international institutions and treaties in the way it has waged war on Iran.
The leaders know one another well in pairs. Putin and Xi have met more than 40 times since Xi became president in 2013 and call each other "dear friend." Trump and Putin have met face-to-face seven times, most recently in Alaska in August 2025. Trump and Xi have held eight in-person talks, including Xi's September state visit to Washington. Trump has warmed to Xi since the truce ending their short-lived trade war last year, despite differences over Iran and other tensions. He has also courted Putin even as Russia presses its nearly five-year-old war in Ukraine and deepens its military, intelligence and diplomatic ties with Iran.
China is Russia's top trading partner, a bond that has tightened since the 2022 invasion. As the EU and the West tried to isolate Russia economically, China bought more of its energy and became its main supplier of key technologies, including high-tech components for its weapons industries, ignoring Western demands to stop. Xi and Putin declared a "no-limits friendship" before the war; China officially calls itself neutral while arguing that Kyiv's Western allies helped provoke Russia. Moscow in turn has repeatedly backed Beijing's policy on Taiwan. Trump recently struck a diesel deal with Russia, waiving sanctions to allow the sale of millions of tons of fuel. He has blamed surging energy prices on Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, though analysts say the Iran war is the main driver of higher crude prices.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has voiced concern that the meeting could become a venue for discussing a Ukraine deal behind Kyiv's back. Some have compared the planning to the 1945 Yalta Conference, where the leaders of the U.S., Britain and the Soviet Union agreed to split Germany and Berlin into four occupation zones and finalized plans for the United Nations. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected the comparison, noting that any agreements reached in Shenzhen cannot be enforced on others. He called the meeting extremely significant but said global order should rest on mutual benefit and respect, not imposed views.
What to watch Thursday is whether the talks produce even a procedural step toward a successor to New START, and how Iran and Ukraine are handled, given Kyiv's worry about being sidelined.
Citazioni salienti
A trilateral meeting runs counter to Chinese support of multilateralism.— Hoo Tiang Boon, Nanyang Technological University
Any potential agreements reached in Shenzhen can't be enforced on others, dismissing Yalta comparisons.— Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman