On a Thursday in Shenzhen, the presidents of the United States, China and Russia are set to sit together for the first time, on the margins of a regional economic summit that gathers 21 economies. Their nations hold the world's largest nuclear arsenals, and the meeting arrives in the wake of New START's expiry, which left the two biggest stockpiles without any binding limits for the first time in half a century. Few expect signed agreements; the gathering is more a first step toward talks that have yet to take shape, and a reminder that great powers still meet to decide the terms of one anothe
Trump, Xi and Putin Plan Unprecedented Joint Meeting on APEC Sidelines in Shenzhen
The first gathering of the world's three biggest nuclear powers
Why does this meeting matter if no agreements are expected?
Because of who is in the room. It's the first time the leaders of the three biggest nuclear powers have gathered together, and New START lapsed in February, so nothing now caps the U.S. and Russian arsenals.
Worth being precise: the "no agreements expected" line comes from one anonymous senior U.S. official. It's a credible signal, but it's one side's expectation, not a joint statement.
What's the sticking point on a three-way nuclear deal?
Size. Pentagon estimates put China above 600 warheads and the U.S. and Russia above 5,000 each. Beijing has shown little interest in a pact.
And those are Pentagon estimates. China doesn't publish a figure, at least not in this reporting.
Why would Xi host, then?
Analysts suggest prestige. The source says he "may be calculating" a chance to flex clout, and Beijing was least certain about the summit's value.
That's interpretation. We don't have Beijing saying why it agreed. And the same meeting could hurt its free-trade pitch at APEC, as one professor notes.
What about Ukraine?
A U.S. official says Trump will discuss Iran but steer away from Ukraine. Zelenskyy still worries about a deal made behind Kyiv's back.
That's a stated worry, not evidence of a plan. Peskov also dismissed Yalta comparisons, so what actually gets discussed in the room is unknown until afterward.
O Pulso
- Three leaders who have never sat as a trio are converging on a single table, and the symbolism alone is unsettling allies.
- With New START gone, the largest arsenals on earth are unbound, and the scramble to write new rules has barely begun.
- Ukraine and Europe fear a deal struck in their absence, while Moscow insists nothing agreed in Shenzhen can be imposed on others.
- Expectations are deliberately low, and the meeting is likely to end as a starting point rather than a breakthrough, with the Iran war dominating the agenda.
On a Thursday in Shenzhen, the presidents of the United States, China and Russia are set to sit together for the first time, on the margins of a regional economic summit that gathers 21 economies. Their nations hold the world's largest nuclear arsenals, and the meeting arrives in the wake of New START's expiry, which left the two biggest stockpiles without any binding limits for the first time in half a century. Few expect signed agreements; the gathering is more a first step toward talks that have yet to take shape, and a reminder that great powers still meet to decide the terms of one another's fears.
The White House has confirmed that Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin will meet on Thursday in Shenzhen, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. It would be the first time the three have gathered together, and their countries hold the largest nuclear stockpiles in the world. Analysts expect more symbolism than substance, and a senior U.S. official said no agreements are anticipated, only the opening of nuclear talks.
The backdrop is sobering. New START expired in February, removing limits on the two largest arsenals for the first time in over fifty years. Russia asked for a one-year extension, but Trump instead called for a broader, modernized deal that includes China. Beijing, whose arsenal Pentagon estimates put above 600 warheads, has shown little interest, and the gap in numbers makes any three-way pact difficult to build.
Each leader has his own purpose. Xi may welcome a chance to display China's growing influence, while Putin gains a stage to appear equal to Washington and Beijing, and analysts believe he hopes to signal that major decisions on Ukraine are being made among them. Trump says he wants to discuss the war with Iran. Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, worries the meeting could become a forum for a deal made behind Kyiv's back, and some have compared it to the 1945 Yalta Conference. The Kremlin rejected the comparison, calling the gathering significant while stressing that a global order must rest on mutual respect.
What happens Thursday will show whether the three leaders move toward a nuclear framework, and how Kyiv and European capitals respond to a table they were not invited to.
The White House confirmed on Friday that the presidents of the United States, China and Russia plan to sit down together on Thursday in Shenzhen, on the sidelines of next week's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin have never before met as a trio, and the three countries they lead hold the world's largest nuclear arsenals.
Analysts say the moment will carry more symbolism than substance. A senior U.S. official, briefing reporters on condition of anonymity, said the meeting is expected to serve as the start of nuclear talks among the three leaders and that no agreements are expected to be announced. Trump has said he wants to use the occasion to discuss the U.S. war with Iran and to pursue a three-way deal on nuclear stockpiles. The official said he will raise Iran with Xi and Putin but will steer clear of Ukraine.
The arms-control backdrop is stark. The last nuclear pact between Russia and the United States, New START, expired in February, lifting caps on the two largest atomic arsenals for the first time in more than fifty years. Russia had asked to extend it for another year. Trump refused, calling instead for a new, improved and modernized deal that includes China. The difficulty is arithmetic: Pentagon estimates put China's arsenal at more than 600 warheads, against more than 5,000 each for the U.S. and Russia, and Beijing has shown little interest in a nuclear pact.
Each host and guest has its own calculation. Xi, by agreeing to host, may see a chance to show off China's growing clout. The Kremlin gets a coveted opportunity to appear as a superpower on par with Washington and Beijing. Edgard Kagan, a former U.S. ambassador to Malaysia now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Putin's aim is to signal that he and Xi are making decisions on Ukraine, something Ukrainians and Europeans dislike.
The meeting may also overshadow the APEC summit itself, which brings 21 economies to a coastal city that grew from a small fishing village into a global technology hub within a few decades. It could complicate Beijing's messaging too. China has argued that a Cold War mentality in the West helped lead to Russia's war on Ukraine, and has criticized the U.S. for undermining international institutions and treaties in its conduct of the Iran war. Hoo Tiang Boon, a professor of Chinese foreign policy at Nanyang Technological University, said a trilateral meeting could undercut China's effort to present itself as a defender of free trade at APEC: "You sort of run counter to Chinese support of multilateralism."
The leaders know one another well in pairs. Putin and Xi have met more than 40 times since Xi became president in 2013 and call each other "dear friend." Trump and Putin have met face to face seven times, most recently in Alaska in August 2025. Trump and Xi have held eight in-person talks, including Xi's state visit to Washington in September. Trump has warmed to Xi since a truce in their short-lived trade war last year, despite differences over Iran and other tensions.
China is Russia's top trading partner, a tie that has deepened since Putin sent troops into Ukraine in 2022. As the EU and the West tried to isolate Russia economically, China bought more of its energy and became its main supplier of key technologies, including high-tech components for Russia's weapons industries, ignoring Western demands to stop. Before the invasion the two declared a "no-limits friendship." Beijing officially calls itself neutral, while saying Kyiv's Western allies helped provoke the war. Moscow, for its part, has repeatedly backed Beijing's policy on Taiwan.
Trump has also courted Putin even as Russia's nearly five-year war continues and Moscow deepens its military, intelligence and diplomatic partnership with Iran. He recently struck a diesel deal waiving sanctions on Moscow and allowing the sale of millions of tons of fuel. He has blamed rising energy prices on Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, though analysts say the Iran war is the main driver of higher crude prices.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has voiced concern that the meeting could become a platform for discussing a Ukraine deal behind Kyiv's back. Some have likened the planning to the 1945 Yalta Conference, where the U.S., Britain and the Soviet Union agreed to split Germany and Berlin into four occupation zones. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected the comparison, noting that anything agreed in Shenzhen cannot be enforced on others. He called a meeting of the three leaders "extremely significant," but said a global order should rest on mutual benefit and respect, not imposed views.
What to watch Thursday is whether the talks move toward a three-way nuclear framework, and how Kyiv and European capitals react to a meeting held without them.
Citações Notáveis
You sort of run counter to Chinese support of multilateralism.— Hoo Tiang Boon, Nanyang Technological University
A meeting between the leaders of countries such as Russia, China and the United States is extremely significant, but no one should impose a view of global order.— Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman (paraphrased)