Trump, Xi and Putin Eye Influence as Asia Hosts Back-to-Back Summits on Trade, Tech and Security

Asia becomes the stage for world politics this week, as leaders travel to a run of back-to-back summits shaped by the contest for influence between China and the United States.

The centrepiece is the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) leaders' meeting, which opens on Wednesday in Shenzhen, China's southern technology hub. Beijing hosts, and Donald Trump arrives two weeks after losing midterm elections. The trip also follows an awkward revelation: the head of Nvidia, the US chipmaker that was long the world's most valuable company, was reported to be having an affair with a woman US intelligence suspects was a Chinese spy. Apec members account for more than 60% of global GDP, and the forum has mainly promoted free trade and multilateralism.

This year's meeting may be defined by something else: a confirmed three-way meeting between Trump, Chinese president Xi Jinping and Russia's Vladimir Putin. Some have likened it to Yalta, where in 1945 Franklin D Roosevelt, Winston Churchill and Joseph Stalin met in Crimea to carve up postwar Europe. Analysts say a 'Yalta 2.0' that issues edicts on Ukraine and Taiwan without their involvement is unlikely. Xiaoyu Pu, an associate professor of political science at the University of Nevada, said the meeting might be more symbolic than substantive, though symbolism matters in great-power diplomacy. In his reading, Trump appears interested in nuclear arms control and denuclearisation, Xi wants a stable relationship with Washington while keeping China's strategic partnership with Russia, and Putin wants to preserve his bargaining leverage over Ukraine.

Apec follows the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) summit in the Philippines, which starts on Sunday and which Trump will attend. While he is in Manila, US officials will hold a sidelines meeting of the Quad: Australia, India, Japan and the US. Meanwhile a Francophone summit is under way in Cambodia, with Canadian prime minister Mark Carney and French president Emmanuel Macron among those attending. Across the gatherings, the agenda includes AI supply chains and governance, tariff reductions and the green energy transition. Regional concerns include the South China Sea, where Beijing has built large military outposts in disputed waters, and an enormous haze from Indonesian forest fires blanketing the region. Myanmar's crisis and the status of Taiwan, which China does not recognise, are perennial issues. Taiwan is sending the founder of hardware company Acer as its envoy to Apec.

Washington's attention to the region has long been coloured by China's rise. In 2011 Barack Obama told Australia's parliament the US was 'a Pacific power, and we are here to stay', launching the 'pivot to Asia'. Joe Biden continued it with intense diplomacy and trade deals, hoping to gather allies who wanted to balance ties with both superpowers. Some analysts see Trump's transactional style as a continuation. Yet his volatility has unsettled smaller nations, which regard China as the more predictable partner.

Jayant Menon, an economist at Singapore's Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute, says south-east Asian countries have been laying groundwork for reduced dependence on the US by seeking deals elsewhere, including with each other and the EU. Writing this month in the East Asia Forum, he argued that with an administration determined to levy tariffs by any legal means, the region's ability to withstand another round depends on deeper integration and diversification beyond the US market.

Predictability does not make Beijing welcome. Chinese premier Li Qiang could face tough talks in Manila, especially over the South China Sea. Foreign minister Wang Yi recently urged Manila to rein in Filipino politicians he said had repeatedly 'smeared' Beijing, after public outcry over the disputed waters. Brunei, China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam have long-running territorial standoffs there, over a busy waterway that may hold oil and gas. Washington has sent ships on freedom of navigation operations, though crises involving Iran, Ukraine, Venezuela, and Israel and Palestine have absorbed its focus in Trump's second term. A long-sought South China Sea pact is not expected at this summit; talks continue next year when Asean's chair passes to Singapore.

Myanmar, which is seeking reintegration, is also on the agenda, and each member is weighing how to handle its isolated neighbour. On Thursday the International Court of Justice is due to issue a judgment that could find Myanmar responsible for genocide. Coup leader Min Aung Hlaing remains barred from Asean but may send a representative.

The diplomacy continues next month at the G20 in Miami, Florida, which Xi is expected to attend if US-China relations stay steady.