For six months, the Strait of Hormuz — through which a fifth of the world's oil and gas must pass — has remained largely sealed, a consequence of American and Israeli strikes on Iran that began in February. Now, as a formal 60-day peace window expires without renewal, President Trump has issued a remarkable threat: that the United States will bomb Oman, a neutral ally and quiet mediator, should it interfere with Washington's own efforts to reopen the waterway. The moment reveals something enduring about great-power diplomacy — that the line between ally and obstacle is drawn not by treaty, but
Trump threatens to bomb ally Oman over Iran strait negotiations
If Oman gets in the way, we'll bomb the shit out of them.
Mark
Why would Trump threaten to bomb an ally over negotiations? What's the actual leverage he thinks he has?
Mimi
He's trying to monopolize the outcome. If Oman cuts a deal with Iran that reopens the Strait on terms Trump doesn't control, he loses leverage over both countries. The threat is meant to freeze Oman in place—make them too afraid to move.
Mark
But Oman says it's neutral. Doesn't that status matter?
Mimi
It matters to Oman. It doesn't matter to Trump. Neutrality only works if both sides respect it. Once Trump says he'll bomb them if they negotiate, neutrality becomes a liability.
Mark
The IRGC denied having a backchannel with the US. Who's lying?
Mimi
Probably both are performing for their domestic audiences. Trump wants to look like he has secret leverage. The IRGC wants to look like they're not capitulating. The truth is likely messier—maybe some back-channel exists, maybe it's dormant, maybe it's theater.
Mark
What does Oman actually do now?
Mimi
That's the real question. They can keep talking to Iran and risk American retaliation. Or they can pull back and let the Strait stay closed. Either way, they lose.
Mark
And the global economy just... waits?
Mimi
Yes. Twenty percent of the world's oil passes through that waterway when it's open. Right now it's closed, and the people who could reopen it are locked in a standoff with no clear off-ramp.
Il Polso
- The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for six months, severing a critical artery of global energy supply and leaving markets in prolonged uncertainty.
- Trump's threat to bomb Oman — a US ally that has itself absorbed Iranian strikes — marks a dramatic escalation of pressure that blurs the boundary between partner and target.
- Oman's separate backchannel negotiations with Iran appeared close to yielding a transit agreement, putting it on a collision course with Washington's insistence on controlling the terms of any deal.
- The 60-day US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding expired Monday without extension, and Trump flatly refused to renew it, even as Iran and Oman claimed a framework was nearly finalized.
- Competing claims about a US-IRGC backchannel — asserted by Trump, denied forcefully by Iran — leave the actual state of diplomacy opaque and the path to reopening the Strait deeply uncertain.
For six months, the Strait of Hormuz — through which a fifth of the world's oil and gas must pass — has remained largely sealed, a consequence of American and Israeli strikes on Iran that began in February. Now, as a formal 60-day peace window expires without renewal, President Trump has issued a remarkable threat: that the United States will bomb Oman, a neutral ally and quiet mediator, should it interfere with Washington's own efforts to reopen the waterway. The moment reveals something enduring about great-power diplomacy — that the line between ally and obstacle is drawn not by treaty, but by proximity to a superpower's will.
The Strait of Hormuz has been nearly impassable for six months. Since February, when the US and Israel struck Iranian targets, Tehran has largely sealed off the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas flows. Now, as a formal 60-day peace window closes, President Trump has made clear he will tolerate no interference in his efforts to reopen it — not even from an ally.
Oman, which borders the southern edge of the Strait, has positioned itself as a neutral broker. Despite having absorbed Iranian strikes itself, it maintained enough diplomatic standing to hold separate negotiations with Tehran. Iranian officials said those talks had progressed far enough that an understanding on shipping routes appeared imminent. Trump's response, delivered in a phone interview with Fox News, was unambiguous: if Oman gets in the way of American interests, the US will bomb it.
The Memorandum of Understanding signed between Washington and Tehran on June 18 was meant to establish a ceasefire and partially reopen the Strait. It collapsed quickly. Both sides resumed strikes, and by early July Trump declared the ceasefire dead. When asked Monday whether he would seek an extension as the 60-day period expired, his answer was simply no.
Iran's foreign ministry said that same day that an agreement with Oman on transit routes had been reached, with details to be finalized before a joint statement. Iran's foreign minister had previously indicated full reopening would require compensation — fees estimated between five and seven percent of cargo values. Trump, meanwhile, claimed the US maintains a direct backchannel with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. An IRGC spokesman flatly denied it, calling the claim a fantasy born of desperation.
What Trump means by Oman 'getting in the way' remains undefined — and that ambiguity may be deliberate. Oman now finds itself caught between a superpower's ultimatum and a neighbor's diplomatic overture. The Strait remains closed, the formal peace window has expired, and the stakes for global energy markets have grown sharper still.
The Strait of Hormuz has been nearly impassable for six months. Through this narrow waterway between Oman and Iran flows roughly a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas—the lifeblood of global commerce. Since February, when the US and Israel struck Iranian targets, Tehran has largely sealed it off. Now, with a 60-day window for peace talks about to close, President Trump has made clear he will tolerate no interference in his own efforts to pry it open again—not even from an ally.
Oman, which borders the southern edge of the Strait, has positioned itself as a neutral broker. The country has taken strikes from Iran itself but has maintained enough diplomatic standing to hold separate negotiations with Tehran aimed at reopening the waterway. Those talks, according to Iranian officials, have progressed far enough that an understanding on shipping routes appeared imminent. But Trump, speaking to Fox News, made his position unmistakable: if Oman gets in the way of American interests, the US will bomb it. The threat came wrapped in profanity and delivered during a phone interview, but the message was direct.
The timing matters. The Memorandum of Understanding signed between Washington and Tehran on June 18 was meant to establish a ceasefire and at least partially reopen the Strait. It collapsed quickly. Both sides resumed strikes. By early July, Trump declared the ceasefire dead and hurled insults at Iran's leadership. Now, as the 60-day period expired on Monday, Trump told reporters he would not seek an extension. When asked directly, his answer was simply no.
Iran's foreign ministry spokesman said on the same day that an agreement with Oman on transit routes had been reached, with details to be finalized before a joint statement. The Iranian foreign minister had previously indicated that full reopening would require compensation from the US—fees estimated between 5 and 7 percent of cargo values for vessels using the Strait. Trump, however, claimed in his Fox interview that the US maintains a direct backchannel with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the country's most powerful military and political institution. An IRGC spokesman flatly denied this, calling Trump's claim a fantasy born of desperation and defeat.
What remains unclear is what Trump actually means by Oman getting in the way. Does it mean negotiating with Iran at all? Reaching a deal that excludes American interests? Accepting terms Trump deems unfavorable? The threat hangs in the air without definition, which may be precisely the point. Trump also said he is in no hurry to end the conflict. Iran's negotiators, he suggested, are skilled but weakening. He has time. The question now is whether Oman—caught between a superpower's ultimatum and a neighbor's diplomatic overture—will continue its mediation efforts or step back. The Strait remains closed. The clock has run out on the formal peace window. And the stakes for global energy markets have just gotten sharper.
Citazioni salienti
If Oman gets in the way, we'll bomb the shit out of them.— President Trump, to Fox News
There are no talks taking place between IRGC officials and the Americans, and this lie by Trump is merely fantasies caused by the delusions and nightmares he has suffered as a result of defeat and desperation in the war.— IRGC spokesman, via Tasnim News
Vuoi la storia completa?
Leggi l'originale su BBC News ↗
Politics & Governance