Trump threatens 50% tariffs on Canadian planes, targets oil suppliers to Cuba

Donald Trump returned to the White House determined to wield tariffs as his primary instrument of statecraft. On Thursday, he announced a fresh round of threats that pulled two separate geopolitical disputes into sharp focus: a dispute with Canada over aircraft certification, and an intensifying campaign to isolate Cuba economically.

The immediate trigger was Canadian refusal to certify certain aircraft built by Gulfstream, a US manufacturer. Trump responded by threatening 50% tariffs on all Canadian-made planes. In a social media post, he went further, declaring he was "decertifying" every aircraft produced in Canada. The statement sent ripples through the industry—Bombardier, the major Canadian aerospace company, quickly issued a statement acknowledging the president's words and confirming contact with the Canadian government. But within hours, a White House official walked back the more sweeping claim to Reuters, clarifying that Trump was not proposing to ground or decertify planes already in operation. The distinction mattered: one interpretation would have upended commercial aviation across North America; the other was a threat aimed at future certifications.

The tariff threat arrived amid already-strained relations between Washington and Ottawa. Earlier in January, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney had delivered a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos that drew global attention for its indirect criticism of Trump, invoking a "rupture" in the postwar international order. Weeks later, Carney traveled to China and announced a "strategic partnership" with Beijing, including agreement to reduce certain tariffs. Trump responded with a threat of his own: a 100% tariff on all Canadian goods if Canada proceeded with a trade deal with China. The 50% threat on aircraft was thus one move in an escalating sequence of economic pressure.

On the same day, Trump signed an executive order targeting countries that supply oil to Cuba. The order did not specify tariff rates or name particular nations, but it declared that Cuba's government and its policies constituted "an unusual and extraordinary threat" to the United States. The language was carefully chosen—it invoked the legal framework that allows the president to impose tariffs without congressional approval in cases of national emergency. The order would permit tariffs on any country that "directly or indirectly sells or otherwise provides any oil to Cuba."

The Cuba initiative reflected a shift in the island nation's energy situation. For years, Venezuela had been Cuba's primary oil supplier, sending roughly 35,000 barrels per day. But in early January, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was seized by US forces, and the new Venezuelan government halted oil shipments and financial support to Cuba. Trump seized on the moment, declaring that Cuba "will be falling pretty soon" without Venezuelan assistance. The executive order was his attempt to ensure that no other nation could fill the gap. He had previously told Cuba to "make a deal, before it is too late," though he has not publicly specified what terms he would accept or what consequences Cuba might face if it refused.

The two actions—the aircraft tariffs and the Cuba oil embargo—illustrated Trump's approach to his second term: tariffs deployed as leverage in multiple theaters simultaneously, with the threat of economic isolation applied to both neighboring allies and longtime adversaries. The White House's quick clarification on the aircraft decertification suggested some internal debate about how far to push, but the underlying strategy remained clear. Canada and Cuba both faced pressure to bend to Trump's will, with the tariff mechanism as the primary tool of coercion.