In the long arc of American political geography, Texas has stood as a reliable Republican stronghold for more than three decades — but that certainty is now being tested. President Trump's MAGA, Inc super PAC has committed $10 million to defend that ground, targeting Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico in what has become the most competitive Texas Senate race in a generation. The spending is both a tactical maneuver and a symbolic declaration: that the midterm elections of 2026 are, in Trump's own framing, a referendum on his presidency itself.
Trump super PAC launches $10M ad blitz in Texas Senate race
What I really want you to do is pretend I'm on the ballot
So Trump's super PAC is spending $10 million in Texas. That sounds like a lot. Is it?
In the context of what Trump says he's committing overall—$400 to $500 million nationally—it's actually a focused bet. Texas is where Democrats think they have a real shot at flipping a Senate seat for the first time in 33 years.
But we should note: that $400 to $500 million figure comes from Trump himself, told to reporters on Friday. We don't have independent confirmation of how much will actually be spent or how it will be distributed.
Why is Texas suddenly competitive? It's been Republican territory forever.
Trump's approval ratings have dropped, and people are worried about cost of living. Those two things together have opened a door for Democrats. Talarico, the Democratic candidate, is running against Ken Paxton, who Trump backed—but Paxton has faced an impeachment trial and other scandals.
Though we should be clear: Paxton won the Republican primary anyway, with Trump's endorsement helping him beat the incumbent senator. So Trump's backing worked there, at least in the primary.
What's the ad campaign actually saying about Talarico?
They're calling him "High Tax Talarico" and saying he wants to take money out of Texans' pockets. It's a tax argument.
The irony is that last year, Congress passed Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which made permanent his earlier tax cuts and increased estate tax exemptions. Critics say those benefits flow mostly to wealthy people. So when Republicans attack Democrats on taxes, Democrats have that legislative record to point to.
What did Talarico's campaign say in response?
They said he voted for the largest property tax cut in Texas history and has consistently cut taxes for working Texans. They also accused Trump-aligned groups of lying and using dark money to distort his record.
That's their counter-narrative, but the $10 million spend is real and it's happening now. The question is whether it moves the needle in a state where Democrats genuinely believe they have momentum.
What happens if Democrats actually flip this seat?
Control of Congress is at stake. Republicans have slim majorities in both chambers. If Democrats gain seats, they could reshape what Trump can do legislatively in his final two years as president.
That's the stakes. But we're still months out from November, and we don't know yet how much of Trump's promised $400 to $500 million will actually be deployed, or where.
Le Pouls
- Texas, unbroken Republican territory since 1993, is suddenly in play — and both parties are treating it as a bellwether for who controls Congress.
- MAGA, Inc's $10 million ad buy is the super PAC's first major general election move, targeting Democrat James Talarico with attacks on tax policy while propping up scandal-scarred Ken Paxton.
- Talarico's campaign is pushing back hard, arguing the outside money is a sign of fear and pointing to his record supporting the largest property tax cut in Texas history.
- With Republicans holding only slim congressional majorities, the outcome in Texas could determine whether Trump's legislative agenda survives his final two years in office.
- Trump has made himself the gravitational center of the entire midterm effort — pledging up to $500 million in super PAC spending and telling supporters to vote as if he himself is on the ballot.
In the long arc of American political geography, Texas has stood as a reliable Republican stronghold for more than three decades — but that certainty is now being tested. President Trump's MAGA, Inc super PAC has committed $10 million to defend that ground, targeting Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico in what has become the most competitive Texas Senate race in a generation. The spending is both a tactical maneuver and a symbolic declaration: that the midterm elections of 2026 are, in Trump's own framing, a referendum on his presidency itself.
President Trump's political machine has made its opening move in Texas, with MAGA, Inc filing paperwork for a $10 million television and digital ad campaign — the super PAC's first major general election spend. The target is James Talarico, a 37-year-old state representative running for the U.S. Senate as a Democrat, whose opponent is Trump-endorsed Attorney General Ken Paxton. Paxton's path to the Republican nomination was itself remarkable: he defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn despite having endured a state impeachment trial and a string of ongoing scandals, with Trump's backing proving decisive.
The investment reflects how seriously both parties are taking Texas in 2026. Democrats have not won a statewide race there since 1993, but a combination of Trump's declining approval ratings and widespread voter anxiety over the cost of living has opened a window that hasn't existed in a generation. Republicans hold narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress, and what happens in November will shape the final stretch of Trump's presidency.
MAGA, Inc's ads will frame Talarico as a threat to Texans' finances — a familiar Republican line, though one complicated by the recent passage of Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which critics say delivered its largest benefits to wealthy earners. Talarico's campaign fired back, arguing the outside spending proves their opponent is rattled, and pointing to Talarico's support for what they called the largest property tax cut in Texas history.
Texas has figured into Trump's broader midterm strategy in other ways too — his team successfully pushed state lawmakers to redraw congressional maps to favor Republicans in five additional House seats. This week, Trump travels to Dallas to headline the first-ever Republican midterm convention. The $10 million Texas buy is a fraction of the $400 to $500 million Trump says MAGA, Inc will deploy nationally. At a South Carolina rally last month, he made the stakes plain: 'Pretend, please, that I'm on the ballot.' The midterms, he has made clear, are his race to win or lose.
President Trump's political machine is making its opening move in Texas. On Saturday, MAGA, Inc—a super PAC bearing the name of Trump's signature campaign slogan—filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission announcing a $10 million television and digital advertising campaign in the state. It marks the first major general election spending by the group, and it arrives at a moment when Texas, long a Republican fortress, has become genuinely contested territory.
The money is aimed squarely at James Talarico, a 37-year-old state representative running for the U.S. Senate as a Democrat. His opponent is Ken Paxton, Texas's attorney general, whom Trump endorsed and helped propel through the Republican primary in May—a victory that surprised many observers given that Paxton has endured a state impeachment trial and weathered a series of scandals. Yet Trump's backing proved decisive against the incumbent senator John Cornyn. Now, with the general election approaching in November, Trump's political apparatus is moving to protect that investment.
The timing reflects a broader political reality: Democrats sense an opening in Texas for the first time in more than three decades. The state has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1993. But Trump's deepening unpopularity, combined with voter anxiety over the cost of living, has created conditions that favor challengers like Talarico. Republicans hold only slim majorities in both chambers of Congress, and control of the legislature in the coming two years will determine what Trump can accomplish legislatively during his final term as president.
MAGA, Inc's advertisements will focus on tax policy, portraying Talarico as hostile to working Texans' wallets. "High Tax Talarico wants to take money out of Texans' pockets," said Alex Pfeiffer, a spokesperson for the group. The framing echoes a familiar Republican argument, though it arrives against a backdrop of recent legislative history that complicates the message. Last year, the Republican-controlled Congress passed Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which made permanent the tax cuts from his first term and increased exemptions for federal estate taxes. Critics noted that these provisions would disproportionately benefit wealthier earners—a fact Democrats have seized upon repeatedly.
Talarico's campaign responded by accusing Trump-aligned groups of flooding the race with outside money and distorting his record. Campaign spokesperson JT Ennis noted that Talarico had voted for what he called the largest property tax cut in Texas history and had consistently supported tax relief for working Texans. The campaign framed the outside spending as evidence of fear: "Billionaire-backed dark money groups are lying about James Talarico because they're scared of the people-powered movement we're building."
Texas has been central to Trump's midterm strategy in other ways as well. Last year, Trump officials successfully lobbied Texas lawmakers to redraw the state's congressional map in a way designed to secure Republican advantages in five additional House seats. Other Republican-led states followed suit, while Democrats pursued similar strategies in states like California. This week, Trump will travel to Dallas to headline the first-ever Republican midterm convention, speaking both nights of the gathering.
The $10 million Texas spend is part of a much larger commitment. Trump told reporters on Friday that he planned to allocate between $400 million and $500 million from MAGA, Inc to support Republican candidates across the country. Questions have circulated about whether such sums would actually reach down-ballot candidates or be concentrated elsewhere, but Trump's statement appeared designed to address those concerns. His personal involvement in the midterm campaign has been extensive—he has traveled the country holding rallies, endorsed candidates in primaries, and made himself a centerpiece of Republican strategy. At a rally in South Carolina last month, he told supporters: "What I really want you to do is pretend, please, that I'm on the ballot." The message was clear: this election is about him, and his party's performance will reflect on his presidency.
Citations marquantes
High Tax Talarico wants to take money out of Texans' pockets. MAGA Inc is going to ensure Texas knows about Talarico's radical policies and elects Ken Paxton to the US Senate.— Alex Pfeiffer, MAGA, Inc spokesperson
Billionaire-backed dark money groups are lying about James Talarico because they're scared of the people-powered movement we're building to fix this broken, corrupt political system.— JT Ennis, Talarico campaign spokesperson