On the eve of a fourteen-day truce's expiry, a leader who insists he is in no hurry is also promising that the bombs will return if no bargain is struck, while the state he is pressing refuses to sit at a table under threat. The war, now seven weeks old, has spilled from the Gulf into the Strait of Hormuz, the markets and the hills of Lebanon, and the human ledger is already heavy with thousands of names. What hangs in the balance this week is whether a quiet interval can be stretched into a pause for diplomacy, or whether an old pattern of force and counter-force resumes on Wednesday.
Trump Sends Mixed Signals on Iran War as Ceasefire Deadline Nears
At least 3,375 people killed in Iran since the war began, plus 23 in Israel, over a dozen in Gulf states, 15 Israeli soldiers and 13 US service members, and over 2,290 deaths in Lebanon.
"I am under no pressure whatsoever," Trump wrote, as the deadline closed in
Mark
Trump says he's under no pressure, yet he's also warning of bombs. How do those fit together?
Mimi
They fit as leverage. He's signalling he can wait, while also saying the deadline has consequences. But the source simply reports both messages side by side, and Iran isn't reading them as a coherent offer.
Luke
Worth noting that's an interpretation. What's confirmed is that he said both things. His intent isn't something the reporting establishes.
Mark
Iran says it won't negotiate under threats. Does that close the door on Islamabad?
Mimi
Not clearly. Iran says it won't attend until Trump dials back his demands, and Pakistani officials are still preparing. Araghchi gave no indication of Iran's plans after the ceasefire.
Luke
Right, so it's unknown whether anyone shows up. Qalibaf's talk of new cards on the battlefield is a statement, not a confirmed plan.
Mark
What's the Hormuz piece?
Mimi
Iran halted traffic Saturday and fired at ships, citing US non-compliance. The US then seized a vessel it said was evading the blockade. Each side calls the other the violator.
Luke
And those are competing accounts. The US says the ship was evading the blockade; Iran calls it piracy. The 27 redirected ships is a US military figure.
Mark
And the cost beyond the diplomacy?
Mimi
Brent above $95 from about $70, and a casualty count that runs from Iran to Lebanon to Gulf states.
Luke
The 3,375 figure comes from one Iranian official, Abbas Masjedi. It's specific, but it's his organisation's count, not an independently verified total.
Il Polso
- Trump declares he is under no pressure, yet warns that lots of bombs will start going off if no deal is reached before Wednesday's ceasefire deadline.
- Tehran rejects talks held under threat, and its negotiator vows to reveal new cards on the battlefield.
- Iranian fire on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and a US seizure of a blockade-running vessel have pushed Brent crude above $95 a barrel.
- Pakistani officials keep preparing Islamabad talks led by Vice President Vance, even as Iran says it will not attend until demands soften.
- With Trump calling a renewal of the ceasefire highly unlikely, the coming days hinge on whether Islamabad holds or the fighting resumes.
On the eve of a fourteen-day truce's expiry, a leader who insists he is in no hurry is also promising that the bombs will return if no bargain is struck, while the state he is pressing refuses to sit at a table under threat. The war, now seven weeks old, has spilled from the Gulf into the Strait of Hormuz, the markets and the hills of Lebanon, and the human ledger is already heavy with thousands of names. What hangs in the balance this week is whether a quiet interval can be stretched into a pause for diplomacy, or whether an old pattern of force and counter-force resumes on Wednesday.
On the eve of a ceasefire deadline, President Donald Trump was saying two things at once. He told interviewers he felt no urgency to end the war until Tehran met his demands, yet he also said a deal should come together quickly and warned that if none arrived before the fourteen-day truce expired on Wednesday, bombs would start going off again.
Tehran answered early Tuesday. Its chief negotiator, Mohammed Bagher Qalibaf, said Iran would not negotiate under the shadow of threats, accused Washington of seeking surrender, and promised new cards on the battlefield. Iran says it will not join the planned Islamabad round, led by Vice President JD Vance, until Washington eases its demands, though Pakistani officials are carrying on with preparations.
The weekend strained the truce further. Iran fired on ships and halted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and the US Navy then seized a vessel it said was evading its blockade of Iranian ports. Trump told Bloomberg a renewal was highly unlikely and the blockade would stay in force. Brent crude has climbed above $95 a barrel, and Trump has publicly rejected his energy secretary's forecast that petrol prices may stay high for months.
The toll grows across the region. Iran reports at least 3,375 dead, Israel 23 civilians, the Gulf states more than a dozen, and over 2,290 people have died in Lebanon, where a fragile ceasefire is being tested. Israel and Lebanon are due to resume direct talks in Washington on Thursday. The next questions are whether Islamabad goes ahead and whether the ceasefire is extended before Wednesday.
On the eve of a ceasefire deadline, President Donald Trump was saying two things at once about the war with Iran. In telephone interviews and on social media, he said he felt no urgency to end the conflict until Tehran gives in to his demands. He also said a deal should come together fairly quickly, and warned that if none is reached before the 14-day ceasefire expires on Wednesday, "lots of bombs" will "start going off." On Truth Social he wrote: "I am under no pressure whatsoever, although, it will all happen, relatively quickly!"
Tehran's answer came early Tuesday. Mohammed Bagher Qalibaf, Iran's chief negotiator and the speaker of its parliament, wrote on X that Iran does not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats. He accused the United States of seeking Iran's surrender and said his country was preparing "to reveal new cards on the battlefield." Trump has said he plans to send his negotiating team, led by Vice President JD Vance, to Islamabad for a second round of talks. Iran says it will not take part until he dials back his demands. Pakistani officials are reportedly continuing preparations anyway.
The weekend made the ceasefire look more fragile. On Saturday, Iran fired at ships and abruptly halted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway linking the Persian Gulf to open seas. Iran had promised to allow passage, and it alleged that the US was not complying with the ceasefire. The US Navy then attacked and seized a vessel it said was trying to evade its blockade of Iranian ports. Iran's joint military command called the seizure piracy and a ceasefire violation. The US military says it has directed 27 ships back to Iranian ports since the blockade began.
Trump told Bloomberg News he was "highly unlikely" to renew the ceasefire and that the blockade will remain "in full force" until Tehran agrees to a deal. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called US actions "incompatible with the claim of diplomacy." He gave no sign of what Iran would do once the ceasefire ends, or whether it would return to the table. The earlier round of talks foundered on Iran's nuclear enrichment programme, its regional proxies and control of the strait.
The economic effects are already visible. With Iranian shipping throttled and the US blockade in place, Brent crude topped $95 a barrel on Monday, up from about $70 before the war began. US stocks slipped modestly that day after the turbulent weekend. Trump tried to reassure investors and publicly contradicted his energy secretary, Chris Wright, who had suggested petrol prices might not fall until late this year or next. "I disagree with him totally," Trump told PBS. "I think it'll come roaring down if it ends."
At home, Trump lashed out at critics urging an end to the seven-week-old war. He told the New York Post it was a bad look to have Democrats and some Republicans asking to settle "in the middle of negotiations" when, as he put it, the Iranians are in a perfect position, including being militarily defeated.
The fighting has spread beyond Iran. Fighting between Israel and Iranian-backed Hezbollah erupted in Lebanon two days after the US-Israel war on Iran began. A 10-day ceasefire there has been marred by continued violence, and more than 2,290 people have died in Lebanon. On Monday, Israel's air force struck and killed Hezbollah militants the military said had approached its troops threateningly. Hezbollah said it detonated explosives in an Israeli convoy inside Lebanon on Sunday. Meanwhile, Israel and Lebanon, which held their first direct diplomatic talks in decades last week, are set to resume them Thursday in Washington, according to officials speaking anonymously. Israel says its aim is to disarm Hezbollah and reach a peace agreement.
The human toll is large. Abbas Masjedi, head of Iran's Legal Medicine Organisation, says at least 3,375 people have been killed in Iran since the war began: 2,875 males and 496 females, including 383 children aged 18 and under. Twenty-three people have died in Israel, more than a dozen in Gulf Arab states, 15 Israeli soldiers in Lebanon and 13 US service members across the region.
The next questions are whether the Islamabad talks go ahead and whether the ceasefire is extended before Wednesday's deadline.
Citazioni salienti
We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats.— Mohammed Bagher Qalibaf, Iran's chief negotiator and parliament speaker, on X
I am under no pressure whatsoever, although, it will all happen, relatively quickly!— President Donald Trump, on Truth Social
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