As the United States approaches its 3 November midterms, a familiar argument has returned to the centre of public life: that elections are being stolen through postal ballots and the votes of non-citizens. The evidence gathered by BBC Verify and others suggests a quieter reality, in which proven fraud is rare enough to be counted in dozens or hundreds across decades and millions of ballots. The distance between that record and the language of 'rampant' cheating reveals less about the ballot box than about how a nation chooses to recognise its own trust and suspicion.
Trump Says Voter Fraud Is 'Rampant'; Evidence Shows It Is Extremely Rare
Four cases of postal fraud for every 10 million ballots
Mark
Trump is offering $1m for fraud tips. What does the evidence say about how common fraud is?
Mimi
Very rare. Brookings found about four postal fraud cases per 10 million ballots across four elections, and 48 million people voted by mail in 2024.
Mark
And non-citizen voting?
Mimi
Heritage's database lists 24 convictions from 2005 to 2025. Reuters found 129 people charged over 30 years and 73 convictions.
Luke
Worth noting those are convictions and charges. They show proven cases, not necessarily every case that happened.
Mimi
Fair. But the sources include a Trump-aligned think tank, so the low numbers aren't coming from only one side.
Mark
What about the SAVE database?
Mimi
Use is voluntary and results have been small. Georgia flagged 432 possible non-citizens over 30 years, and Nevada's 185 names turned out to be citizens.
Luke
The New Jersey case is real, though. About 6,600 registered through a glitch, fewer than 400 voted, and that figure comes from state officials.
Mimi
Yes, and it was a software error, now fixed, not evidence of a wider scheme.
Mark
Does voter ID change anything?
Luke
Unclear. Olson says scholars find little proof for either fraud prevention or suppression. The 21.3 million figure is a Brennan Center survey estimate, from a liberal-leaning group.
Le Pouls
- A presidential promise of $1m for proven voter fraud has pushed a contested claim into the heat of a midterm campaign.
- Trump's executive order to control postal ballot delivery was rejected by the Supreme Court as arbitrary and capricious, though the question may return.
- Studies find roughly four postal-vote fraud cases per 10 million ballots, while a 2020 study found mail voting did not raise fraud risk.
- Only 24 non-citizen voting convictions appear between 2005 and 2025, and a federal voter ID bill still awaits Congress.
- Courts, states and federal agencies are pulling in different directions over the SAVE database, with the outcome still unsettled.
As the United States approaches its 3 November midterms, a familiar argument has returned to the centre of public life: that elections are being stolen through postal ballots and the votes of non-citizens. The evidence gathered by BBC Verify and others suggests a quieter reality, in which proven fraud is rare enough to be counted in dozens or hundreds across decades and millions of ballots. The distance between that record and the language of 'rampant' cheating reveals less about the ballot box than about how a nation chooses to recognise its own trust and suspicion.
Ahead of the 3 November midterm elections, President Donald Trump has offered $1m to anyone who reports a voter fraud case ending in conviction, and he has called fraud through postal voting and by non-citizens 'rampant'. BBC Verify examined the evidence, and what it found points in the opposite direction.
Postal voting sits at the centre of the dispute. Trump has made claims for years that mail voting breeds large-scale fraud, even as he has encouraged Republicans to vote by mail this year. Congress has not passed his proposed limits on mail voting. Yet about 48 million people voted by mail in the 2024 presidential election, and the studies available show very little fraud. Brookings found around four cases per 10 million postal votes, and a 2020 study of eight states that mailed ballots to all eligible voters found no rise in fraud risk. Oregon recorded 40 fraud cases across two decades while sending out more than 100 million postal ballots.
Non-citizen voting is also rare. It is illegal and carries prison, fines and deportation, and the record of convictions is small: 24 between 2005 and 2025 in one database, and 73 convictions in a Reuters analysis of 30 years of federal cases. Experts argue that the threat of losing immigration status deters most people, and no evidence suggests enough cases to change an election. Georgia flagged 432 possible non-citizens over three decades, and Nevada found that names from federal data all belonged to citizens. New Jersey's software glitch registered about 6,600 non-citizens, but fewer than 400 cast ballots, and all were removed.
The debate now turns to what the rules should be. Supporters of a proposed voter ID law say it would protect elections, while critics warn it could keep eligible citizens from voting, since millions lack easily available proof of citizenship. The SAVE database, built to check benefit eligibility, can contain outdated information, and courts have let the administration use it to check voter rolls. What happens next depends on Congress, the Supreme Court and the states, after the midterms have passed.
Ahead of the 3 November midterm elections, President Donald Trump has put a price on his claim that cheating is widespread: $1m (£750,000) for anyone who reports a case of voter fraud that ends in a conviction. He has described fraud in postal voting and by non-citizens as "rampant". BBC Verify examined the evidence, and the studies it found point the other way.
Postal voting is the first target. For years Trump has made unsubstantiated claims that it breeds large-scale fraud, though he has encouraged Republicans to vote by mail in these midterms and has said he has voted by post himself. He has failed to get Congress to pass a bill limiting mail voting to people who are disabled, ill, serving in the military or travelling. Most states let voters use mail ballots without giving a reason, and about 48 million people did so in the 2024 presidential election.
Trump also signed an executive order last year directing the US Postal Service to deliver ballots only to voters on citizen lists compiled by government agencies, and seeking a uniform envelope style across states. The US Supreme Court rejected it, calling changes so close to the midterms "arbitrary and capricious", though it said it could revisit the matter afterwards. States verify mail ballots differently, but all match certain voter information against records on file, and most also check signatures.
The fraud data is thin. The Brookings Institution studied the 2016, 2018, 2020 and 2022 elections and found an average of about four fraud cases per 10 million postal votes. It drew on a Heritage Foundation database of fraud cases that ended in conviction; Heritage has been aligned with Trump in the past. BBC Verify searched that database over 20 years and found 325 convictions linked to fraudulent postal ballots. A 2020 American Statistical Association study of eight states that mail ballots to all eligible voters found no evidence that voting by mail raised overall fraud risk. Oregon, for example, recorded 40 fraud cases between 2000 and 2020 while sending out more than 100 million postal ballots.
On non-citizens, Trump said before the 2024 election that Democrats were letting in millions of migrants "so they can vote, vote, vote". Voting in federal elections by non-citizens is illegal, with possible penalties of prison, a fine and deportation. The Heritage database lists 24 convictions of non-citizens for voting between 2005 and 2025. A 2026 Reuters analysis of federal court cases found 129 people charged over 30 years, with 73 convictions. Darrell West of Brookings says the risk to immigration status is a strong deterrent, and that there is no evidence of enough cases to sway an election.
The voting bill Trump wants would require government-issued photo ID at the polls, proof of citizenship to register, and ongoing citizenship checks. Critics fear it would depress turnout. Jonathan Diaz of the Campaign Legal Center notes the US has no national ID card, and that a driver's licence does not show immigration status. A 2023 Brennan Center survey suggested about 21.3 million voting-age citizens, roughly 9%, lack readily available proof of citizenship. Walter Olson of the conservative Cato Institute says scholars have found little proof for either side's claims about existing ID laws, whether on fraud prevention or voter suppression. Meanwhile, the Brennan Center counts 21 restrictive voting laws, mostly in Republican-run states, enacted since the 2024 election to tighten ID rules.
Trump has also urged states to use the federal SAVE database to find suspected non-citizens on voter rolls. Created in the 1980s to check benefit eligibility by immigration status, it holds data on naturalised citizens and non-citizens who have contacted the government. Critics say it can be outdated and include people who have since become citizens, but the Supreme Court has lifted restrictions on the administration using it this way. Olson calls information sharing positive but says forcing states to treat the data as reliable is bad. State use is voluntary, and detections have been small. Georgia identified 432 possible non-citizens on its rolls over 30 years. The Department of Homeland Security gave Nevada 185 names, which state officials found were all citizens.
The White House points to New Jersey, where a software glitch at the licensing agency registered about 6,600 non-citizens to vote between June 2023 and June 2024; officials say fewer than 400 cast ballots and all have been removed. The Justice Department asked California not to count 20,000 postal ballots from people it called "likely non-citizen registrants", but an appeals court rejected the request. The department has charged 28 of those 20,000 people. Watch whether Congress passes the voter ID bill and whether the Supreme Court revisits the postal ballot order after the midterms.
Citations marquantes
There's never been any evidence that there are many people who have done that, certainly not enough to influence an election.— Darrell West, Brookings Institution
The ID most Americans carry around wouldn't be enough for you to vote.— Jonathan Diaz, Campaign Legal Center
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Politics & Governance