I call the shots. He doesn't call the shots.
In the long and tangled history of Middle Eastern conflict, Monday brought another moment where the ambitions of diplomacy and the momentum of war moved in opposite directions. Israel struck Iranian military targets with ballistic missiles hours after President Trump personally urged restraint, insisting a peace deal was within reach — even as oil markets surged, Lebanon burned, and each side answered the last strike with another. The episode raises an ancient and unresolved question: whether any single leader, however confident of his authority, can hold back forces that have already decided to move.
- Israel launched ballistic missiles at Iranian military installations Monday morning, directly defying a personal phone call from Trump to Netanyahu the night before urging a pause in operations.
- Trump publicly insisted he 'calls all the shots' and that the strikes would not derail peace negotiations, even as the cycle of retaliation between Israel and Iran continued unbroken.
- Oil prices surged more than three percent above $96 a barrel as markets absorbed the escalation, with Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz already choking roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply.
- Israel's parallel campaign in Lebanon — launched in March against Hezbollah — has killed thousands and displaced hundreds of thousands, with fresh strikes on Beirut's Dahiyeh district arriving just before Trump's call to Netanyahu.
- Iran's negotiators rejected U.S. proposals on frozen assets and warned of retaliation, while Netanyahu faces domestic political pressure ahead of elections, leaving the path to any agreement narrower with each passing strike.
On Sunday evening, Donald Trump called Benjamin Netanyahu from his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey. The conversation lasted just under thirty minutes. Trump urged the Israeli prime minister to hold back from further strikes on Iran, arguing that peace negotiations with Tehran were close enough to justify restraint. Netanyahu did not hold back.
By Monday morning, Israeli warplanes had struck military targets across western and central Iran using air-to-surface ballistic missiles. Iran's Revolutionary Guards confirmed the hits. The cycle of retaliation that had defined the preceding months continued without pause.
Trump responded by insisting the strikes changed nothing. Speaking to the Financial Times, he declared that fresh Israeli and Iranian attacks would have no bearing on his administration's peace talks. 'I call the shots. I call all the shots,' he said — a claim of total control delivered as events on the ground moved independently of his wishes.
The conflict had been building since April, when a ceasefire arrangement briefly paused U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. That truce never fully held. Israel had pressed on with its campaign in Lebanon, where it invaded in March to pursue Hezbollah fighters who had been firing rockets and drones across the border. That operation had killed thousands and displaced hundreds of thousands. On Sunday, just before Trump's call, Israeli forces struck Dahiyeh — a Hezbollah stronghold in southern Beirut — for the first time since the ceasefire plan was announced.
The escalation was already moving markets. Brent crude climbed back above $96 a barrel, up more than three percent. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil passes — had already disrupted global shipping, and Washington had responded with its own blockade of Iranian ports.
The diplomatic path was further complicated by competing demands. Trump wanted any deal to permanently block Iran from developing nuclear weapons — terms tougher than the 2015 agreement he had once abandoned. Iran wanted sanctions lifted, recognition of its control over the strait, and access to billions in frozen assets. A U.S. proposal to redirect some of those assets to Gulf neighbors for reconstruction was immediately rejected by Tehran as illegal.
Trump kept insisting a deal was close. 'We're very close to a deal, or I'm going to blow the hell out of them,' he told NBC News. But the pattern was plain: each strike invited another, the window for negotiation kept narrowing, and the man who claimed to control the situation watched as events moved forward without asking his permission.
On Monday morning, Israeli warplanes struck military targets across western and central Iran—a direct defiance of pressure that had come just hours earlier from Donald Trump himself. The U.S. president had spent his Sunday at his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey, where he placed a call to Benjamin Netanyahu lasting just under thirty minutes. During that conversation, Trump urged the Israeli prime minister to hold back from further attacks, reasoning that peace negotiations with Tehran were close enough to justify restraint. "We are close to doing something good in terms of a deal," Trump told Netanyahu, according to a U.S. official.
But Netanyahu did not hold back. By Monday, Israel's defense forces announced they had launched air-to-surface ballistic missiles at Iranian military installations. Iran's Revolutionary Guards confirmed the strikes had hit targets inside their territory. The cycle of retaliation that had defined the past months continued unbroken.
Trump, meanwhile, was insisting that none of this mattered to his larger ambitions. Speaking to the Financial Times, he declared that fresh Israeli and Iranian strikes would have no bearing on his administration's peace talks with Tehran. "It's not going to have any impact on the deal," he said. "I call the shots. I call all the shots. He doesn't call the shots." The statement was characteristic—a claim of total control delivered even as events on the ground suggested otherwise.
The broader conflict had been simmering since April, when the U.S. and Israel had paused their attacks on Iran as part of a ceasefire arrangement. But that ceasefire had never truly held. Israel had continued its campaign in Lebanon, where it had invaded in March to pursue Hezbollah fighters who had fired rockets and drones across the border in solidarity with Iran. That Lebanon operation had killed thousands of people and displaced hundreds of thousands more. Hezbollah, which had not participated in the truce talks, had continued its own attacks and made clear it would not surrender its weapons unless Israel withdrew.
On Sunday, just before Trump's call to Netanyahu, Israeli forces had struck the Beirut area for the first time since the U.S. had announced a ceasefire plan for Lebanon. The targets were in Dahiyeh, a southern district long known as a Hezbollah stronghold. Netanyahu said the strikes were a response to Hezbollah fire directed at Israel. Iran's chief peace negotiator, parliamentary speaker Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf, countered that U.S. bases and Israeli assets were legitimate targets because of what he called hostile acts and violations of agreements over Lebanon.
The escalation was already moving markets. Oil prices jumped more than three percent in early trading Monday, with Brent crude climbing back above ninety-six dollars a barrel. The wider war had already disrupted global shipping—Iran was blocking most traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the main transit route for roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply. Washington had imposed its own blockade of Iranian ports in response.
Trump's negotiating position was complicated by his own history. He was demanding that any agreement prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons and was under pressure to deliver terms tougher than the 2015 nuclear deal that Barack Obama had negotiated and that Trump himself had later abandoned. Iran's demands included the lifting of U.S. and international sanctions, recognition of its control over the strait, and access to billions of dollars in frozen assets. A source familiar with U.S. plans told Reuters that Washington was considering making Iranian assets available to Gulf neighbors to help repair damage Iran had inflicted. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi immediately rejected that idea as illegal and warned Tehran would respond.
Trump kept repeating that a deal was within reach. "We're very close to a deal, or I'm going to blow the hell out of them," he told NBC News in an interview that aired Sunday, marking one hundred days of the conflict. But the pattern was clear: each side struck, each side retaliated, and the window for negotiation kept narrowing. Netanyahu faced political pressure at home over the Lebanon ceasefire ahead of national elections. Iran saw any pause as weakness. And Trump, insisting he controlled the situation, watched as events moved forward without waiting for his permission.
Notable Quotes
We are close to doing something good in terms of a deal— Trump to Netanyahu during Sunday phone call
We're very close to a deal, or I'm going to blow the hell out of them— Trump to NBC News
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why did Netanyahu ignore Trump's direct request? Is there daylight between them now?
Netanyahu has his own political pressures—elections are coming, and his coalition depends on showing strength. But there's something deeper: he doesn't believe the Lebanon campaign and the Iran negotiations are connected. Israel sees Hezbollah as a separate threat that needs to be dealt with regardless of what happens in Tehran.
And Trump thinks they're connected?
Trump thinks everything is connected to his deal-making. He believes if Israel stops attacking, Iran will negotiate seriously. But Iran has already said it won't negotiate unless Lebanon is part of the ceasefire. So they're talking past each other.
What about the oil markets? Why did prices jump so much?
Because the Strait of Hormuz is already partially blocked by Iran, and every new strike raises the risk it gets completely shut down. One-fifth of the world's oil moves through there. A real escalation could choke global supply.
Is Trump's threat—"blow the hell out of them"—actually credible?
It's hard to say. He's already committed to negotiations, and he's trying to look tough while also claiming he's close to a deal. The threat might be for domestic consumption, to show he's not being pushed around by Iran.
What does Iran actually want from these talks?
Sanctions lifted, their frozen assets unfrozen, and recognition that they have leverage in the region. They also want Israel out of Lebanon. But Trump wants to impose tougher terms than Obama did, which makes it harder to find common ground.
So what happens next?
Either Trump finds a way to enforce restraint on both sides, or the cycle continues. Each strike makes the next one more likely. The real question is whether anyone actually wants a deal badly enough to stop fighting.