Trump rallies ahead of midterms as Democrats eye House and Senate wins

Donald Trump is heading to Nebraska today to begin a series of campaign rallies before the midterm elections on November 3rd. The state has voted for him three times running, though Democrats point to one competitive district in Omaha as a potential opening. If his previous speeches are any guide, attendees should expect him to deny poll results, make accusations about his opponents' personal choices, and deploy language that would make most parents wince. Nebraskans may well embrace it anyway—Republicans argue their hold on the state remains secure.

Yet the political ground beneath Trump has shifted. His approval ratings have fallen sharply. The movement he built has begun to fracture. An unpopular military conflict in Iran, combined with an affordability crisis that has made daily life harder for millions of Americans, has eroded support among voters who once saw him as their champion. And yet his supporters remain among the most motivated voters in the country, and Republicans have vastly more money to mobilize their base than Democrats do.

The disconnect is real and troubling for Trump's political future. Voters who initially backed him as an anti-establishment figure, someone who promised to break the two-party system, now watch him align himself with big technology companies and other corporate interests. His political instincts, once sharp, have dulled—partly because, as one observer noted, he cannot see beyond his own preoccupations: his properties, the war, the unchecked expansion of artificial intelligence. An Ohio voter summed up the frustration plainly: "I'm sorry, but I don't give a shit whose name is on the Kennedy Center."

The Guardian's Washington editor, Ankita Rao, who has spent months traveling across the country talking to voters in communities large and small, says the real question may not be who still believes in Trump, but rather whether Americans feel they have been offered a genuine alternative. During the primary season, both parties nominated candidates their voters believed would challenge the establishment—yet here they are, facing the same old dynamics.

Election integrity looms as a central concern heading into November 3rd. Trump has already signed executive orders designed to restrict voting methods, and in a recent interview he refused to rule out declaring a national emergency to implement further controls. The Guardian's team is prepared for legal challenges in individual races, which Rao says are "almost inevitable." Reporters are positioned in states where Republicans control election systems entirely, ready to move quickly if irregularities emerge. Fear of rigging is widespread among Democratic voters, particularly anxiety about mail-in ballots—the method nearly one-third of Americans use to vote. Yet this anxiety may also drive higher turnout. Early registration data from Florida, a deeply Republican state, already shows Democrats signing up in unusually large numbers, driven by a determination to win by margins so decisive that no one can question the results.

If the election were held today, Rao believes Democrats would almost certainly win control of the House and very likely take the Senate as well. But winning the Senate matters less than it might seem, because Trump has already demonstrated he can bypass Congress entirely—he did exactly that before launching the Iran war without legislative authorization. Still, a Democratic majority would enable investigations that have already been called for, including one into revelations that a Russian oligarch helped finance part of Donald Trump Jr.'s wedding in the Bahamas.

One other dynamic is worth watching: the role of democratic socialists within the Democratic party. Only a handful are likely to be elected, but they could form a vocal bloc. How they choose to operate remains unclear. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, one of the most prominent, has been strategic and collaborative with establishment Democrats rather than obstructionist. Whether a larger group of progressive voices will take the same approach—or whether they will take a harder line, particularly on Israel's military campaign in Gaza, which has already fractured the Democratic coalition—is still an open question.

In Washington itself, the militarization of the capital since the last election has become part of the daily landscape. National Guard trucks line the streets. It adds what Rao describes as a layer of subtle fear, a sense that things could escalate quickly. Yet in cities where this military presence is most visible—Minneapolis, Los Angeles, Washington—people are not being deterred from voting. If anything, the opposite is true. Lawn signs have doubled. The mood is defiant.