Two of the world's most consequential leaders are moving toward a meeting in South Korea, carrying with them the weight of a trade relationship that shapes the lives of billions. President Trump and President Xi approach the APEC summit in Gyeongju with a November 1 deadline casting a long shadow — one that could see tariffs on Chinese goods triple if no agreement is found. In the space between threat and invitation, both nations are testing whether personal diplomacy can outpace structural rivalry.
Trump Plans Xi Meeting at APEC, Threatens 157% Tariffs if China Deal Fails by Nov 1
I want them to thrive. We want to thrive together.
Mark
So Trump is saying he wants a deal with China, but he's also threatening to nearly triple the tariffs if they don't agree by November 1. How serious is that deadline?
Mimi
The deadline appears real. Treasury Secretary Bessent is already in talks with China's Vice Premier to prepare the ground before Trump and Xi meet in South Korea at APEC. That's not the posture of someone bluffing.
Luke
But we should note—the current tariff rate Trump cited as 55 percent doesn't quite match the 57 percent mentioned earlier. It's unclear if that's a rounding difference or if he's measuring something different. The numbers matter when we're talking about economic impact.
Mark
What's the actual leverage here? Is China really vulnerable to a 157 percent tariff?
Mimi
China has already retaliated with rare-earth mineral export restrictions, which is significant because those materials are essential for electronics and defense. So yes, both sides have real tools. But Trump seems to be betting that China's economy is more exposed to tariff escalation than the U.S. is to supply chain disruption.
Luke
That's his framing, but we don't have independent economic analysis in this reporting to confirm whether that's actually true. We have Trump's assertion and China's response. The actual balance of leverage is still being tested.
Mark
Why is Trump emphasizing the personal relationship with Xi so much?
Mimi
It could be genuine—he's said before that personal relationships matter in diplomacy. Or it could be strategic positioning before a negotiation. Either way, he's signaling that this isn't about ideology or punishment; it's about finding a deal both sides can live with.
Luke
The "I want them to thrive" language is interesting because it softens the threat. But it's worth remembering that Trump has walked back tariff threats before, and he's also followed through on them. We won't know which this is until November 1 passes.
Mark
So what happens if they don't reach a deal?
Mimi
The tariffs jump to 157 percent, which would make Chinese goods vastly more expensive for American consumers and businesses. That would likely trigger further Chinese retaliation and could disrupt global supply chains significantly.
Luke
Assuming the tariff actually goes into effect as threatened. We should watch whether Trump uses that deadline as a negotiating tool or whether he actually implements it. History suggests he might do either.
Il Polso
- A hard deadline of November 1 looms over the talks, with US tariffs on Chinese imports threatening to surge from 57% to 157% if no deal is struck.
- China has already responded to existing tariffs by restricting exports of rare-earth minerals — materials essential to electronics and defense — signaling it is not without leverage.
- Trump is deploying the language of friendship and mutual prosperity even as he wields the tariff threat, framing the confrontation as a correction rather than a conflict.
- Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are meeting in Malaysia this weekend to lay the groundwork before the two presidents face each other in Gyeongju.
- The APEC summit on October 31 through November 1 is now the focal point of a high-stakes negotiation that will test whether personal rapport between leaders can translate into durable economic agreement.
Two of the world's most consequential leaders are moving toward a meeting in South Korea, carrying with them the weight of a trade relationship that shapes the lives of billions. President Trump and President Xi approach the APEC summit in Gyeongju with a November 1 deadline casting a long shadow — one that could see tariffs on Chinese goods triple if no agreement is found. In the space between threat and invitation, both nations are testing whether personal diplomacy can outpace structural rivalry.
President Trump announced plans to meet China's Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in Gyeongju, South Korea, running October 31 through November 1, with a separate visit to China itself planned for early next year. Speaking alongside Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Trump adopted a notably warm tone, describing his bond with Xi as one he cherishes and saying he wants China to thrive — even as he made clear the consequences of inaction.
The conciliatory language arrives amid serious trade friction. The US has already placed 57 percent tariffs on Chinese imports, and China responded in early October by restricting exports of rare-earth minerals critical to electronics and defense. Trump warned that failure to reach a deal by November 1 could push those tariffs to 157 percent — a figure he described as a mutual burden neither side should want to bear. 'It is a two-way street,' he said, framing the moment as a broader correction of what he sees as decades of American trade imbalance.
Trump expressed confidence in reaching what he called a 'fantastic' and 'fair' trade deal, leaning heavily on the quality of his personal relationship with Xi as a foundation for negotiation. The diplomatic machinery is already in motion: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China's Vice Premier He Lifeng are expected to meet in Malaysia this weekend on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit, specifically to prepare the ground for the presidential encounter. Both sides appear to be treating the November 1 deadline as a genuine inflection point.
President Trump announced on Monday that he will travel through Malaysia, Japan, and South Korea in the coming weeks, with a planned meeting between himself and China's Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea. The gathering, hosted in the city of Gyeongju, runs from October 31 through November 1. Trump also indicated he intends to visit China itself sometime early next year. Speaking to reporters as he met with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Trump struck a notably conciliatory tone about the relationship, saying he wanted "to be good to China" and describing his connection with Xi as one he loves.
The diplomatic overture comes against a backdrop of escalating trade friction. The United States has already imposed 57 percent tariffs on Chinese imports. China responded on October 9 by announcing restrictions on exports of rare-earth minerals, materials critical to electronics and defense manufacturing. Trump made clear that this November 1 deadline carries real teeth: if no agreement is reached by then, American tariffs on Chinese goods could jump to 157 percent. He framed the stakes as mutual. "If they don't want to do business with us, China is in big trouble," Trump said. "I don't want them to be in trouble. I want them to thrive. We want to thrive together. It is a two-way street."
Trump characterized China's current position as one of significant financial burden. He noted that Chinese exporters are already "paying tremendous amounts of money to us in the form of tariffs" at the current 55 percent rate—a figure that appears to reflect his view of the tariff impact—and emphasized that the potential 155 percent increase represents a far steeper cost. He also positioned the moment as a correction to what he sees as a pattern of exploitation. "A lot of countries took advantage of the US and they are not able to take advantage anymore," Trump said, suggesting that his tariff strategy represents a broader recalibration of American trade relationships.
Trump expressed confidence in reaching what he called a "fantastic trade deal" with China, one that would be "fair" to both sides. He repeatedly invoked the quality of his personal relationship with Xi, suggesting that the foundation exists for productive negotiation. The language of respect and relationship-building dominated his public comments, even as the tariff threat hung over the conversation.
The diplomatic machinery is already moving. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated on Friday that he and China's Vice Premier He Lifeng are likely to hold talks in Malaysia this weekend—during the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit scheduled for October 26-28—specifically to "prepare for the two presidents to meet." These preliminary discussions are meant to lay groundwork for the higher-level encounter in South Korea. The timing suggests both sides are treating the November 1 deadline as a genuine pressure point, with lower-level officials working to identify possible terms before Trump and Xi sit down face to face.
Citazioni salienti
I think we're going to end up having a fantastic trade deal with China. We're going to have a fair deal. I want to be good to China.— President Trump
If they don't want to do business with us, China is in big trouble. I don't want them to be in trouble. I want them to thrive. We want to thrive together. It is a two-way street.— President Trump
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