Trump more popular than Starmer in Scotland as Labour slumps in new polling

A new survey of Scottish voters has produced a striking inversion of political standing: Donald Trump, sitting in the White House, commands higher approval ratings in Scotland than Keir Starmer does as Prime Minister. The Scottish Political Pulse Survey, conducted by Ipsos and released this week, found Starmer's net approval rating at minus 47—a single point better than Trump's minus 48. For a sitting British Prime Minister to trail an American president in his own country's polling represents a dramatic collapse in public confidence.

The damage to Labour runs deeper still. Anas Sarwar, who leads Scottish Labour, has fallen to a net approval of minus 26, the lowest either he or Starmer have registered since Ipsos began tracking these figures in October 2022. The party that once dominated Scottish politics has seen its standing erode across the board, with voters expressing dissatisfaction that has only hardened over time.

While Labour has contracted, other forces have expanded. Nigel Farage's net approval rating has climbed six points since February, now standing at minus 31. Reform UK, the party he leads, is gaining traction north of the border even as it remains a marginal force in most polling. The trend suggests that as traditional parties lose credibility, space opens for insurgent movements to gain purchase.

The SNP, Scotland's governing party, presents a paradox. First Minister John Swinney leads all figures in approval, with a net rating of minus 10—substantially better than any Westminster politician measured. Yet this relative strength masks deep public dissatisfaction with his government's record. Fifty-four percent of survey respondents said the SNP was doing a bad job on the NHS, the health service that dominates Scottish political debate. A separate Survation poll, commissioned by the pro-union think tank Scotland in Union, found similar patterns: voters believe the SNP government has performed poorly, yet the party is positioned to retain power in next May's Holyrood elections.

The Survation numbers suggest the SNP would secure 37 percent of constituency votes and 31 percent of list votes in the next Scottish Parliament election. Labour trails at 20 and 18 percent respectively, while Reform would take 18 and 16 percent. Despite the widespread criticism of SNP governance, no alternative has yet consolidated enough support to displace it.

Alastair Cameron, director of Scotland in Union, interpreted the findings as confirmation of public frustration with the SNP and called for "a competent Holyrood government which focuses on day-to-day issues." The SNP's deputy leader Keith Brown, by contrast, welcomed the Survation results as evidence of the party's strongest constituency vote share in nearly three years. Both readings of the same data reflect the polarized state of Scottish politics.

The rise of Reform, however, has triggered alarm among Scotland's labor movement and civil society organizations. Roz Foyer, general secretary of the Scottish TUC, warned that Reform represents a threat to public services themselves. She argued that Farage and his allies would readily privatize public provision, bringing in private consultants and corporate interests to manage services designed for collective benefit rather than profit. In response, unions, charities, and civic groups are organizing a march and rally called Scotland Demands Better, scheduled for October 25 in Edinburgh, to signal to the Scottish government that working people expect better stewardship of public services. The event represents an attempt to channel growing dissatisfaction away from right-wing populism and toward demands for genuine reform of the institutions Scots depend on.