Trump Leaves Mideast in Limbo as Iran Rhetoric Shifts After Midterm Losses

In the days since Republicans lost badly in last week's midterm elections, President Donald Trump has said a great deal about where the Iran war goes next, and much of it has pulled in opposite directions. Across exchanges with reporters, broadcast interviews and social media posts, he has backed away from further strikes and, at the same time, from more talks with Iranian negotiators on ending a conflict now eight months old.

The day after the election, he acknowledged that the war, and the global economic turmoil it has caused, were partly to blame for his party's losses, while insisting it was the right decision. At the start of this week he met Qatar's prime minister at the White House, then told reporters he thought it highly unlikely he would need to order new major strikes, saying the war "militarily is effectively over."

By Thursday the tone had shifted again. Trump declared that the United States no longer needs a deal with Tehran and, in a social media post, told Vice President JD Vance to give his "complete and total attention" to the administration's domestic anti-fraud campaign. Vance had been Trump's chief negotiator in the earlier peace talks. He was skeptical about launching the war but ultimately backed it. Trump also warned that the U.S. military is "locked and loaded" and watching Pickaxe Mountain, a site linked to Iran's nuclear program, for signs of activity. "If something does not work out, I would not hesitate" to act, he told conservative broadcaster Hugh Hewitt.

According to a person familiar with the matter, who spoke anonymously, Vance had been weighing a return to talks with senior Iranian negotiators. The Wall Street Journal reported that deliberation, and Trump posted his message the next morning. He was aware of what Vance was considering and believed the Iranians were not acting in good faith. The same person said Trump is increasingly confident he can credibly claim to have met his military objectives. With oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz near prewar levels, he might leave it to Gulf countries to negotiate with Iran over governing the waterway. Passage is still dangerous, though: the United Nations says October had the most incidents against commercial ships there since February.

Qatar, the chief mediator, is still trying to broker an interim agreement that would restore traffic through the strait and keep further U.S.-Iran discussions possible. Two Middle East diplomats familiar with the process, speaking anonymously, said that effort looked on track after the Qatari prime minister's White House visit but has been clouded by Trump's contradictory remarks. One said the Thursday post raised questions about why Vance was being sidelined. The other described a holding pattern, with mediators and Iranians unsure whether Trump was abandoning a negotiated outcome or posturing after losing control of Congress.

Iran, for its part, will not discuss its nuclear program until the U.S. accepts several core conditions Tehran wants in any ceasefire. Trump insists the nuclear differences be resolved in any deal. Iran's deputy U.N. ambassador, Gholamhossein Darzi, told the Security Council on Friday that Iran "has never closed the door to diplomacy," but warned of "an immediate and decisive response" if the U.S. or Israel resumes bombing.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the U.S. is not opposed to mediators continuing. "If there's a deal to be done, the president will be the first one to be in favor of it," he said, "but it's not going to be a stupid deal." In a Friday speech to the Federalist Society, he argued the economic pain inflicted on Iran is so great that military action is unnecessary. The White House declined to comment directly on Trump's postelection rhetoric. Democratic Sen. Cory Booker, speaking in Denver, called Trump an arsonist of American foreign policy who "now just wants to walk away."

Michael Singh of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy expects the stalemate to last, with the monthslong U.S. naval blockade continuing to curb Iranian crude exports. He called patience and pressure the most sensible path, with senior officials like Vance engaged only when the time is right. Next week the ambiguity travels with Trump to the Philippines and to APEC meetings in Shenzhen, China, where he is to hold an unprecedented three-way summit with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, with Iran and the nuclear stockpiles of the three powers expected on the agenda.