Steve can turn it around, before it is too late
In the early hours of an April morning, President Trump cast his weight behind Steve Hilton — television personality, former British Conservative adviser, and Republican hopeful for California's governorship. The endorsement arrives not into a conventional primary but into California's open 'jungle primary,' where the top two finishers advance regardless of party, meaning the crowded Democratic field of eight could, in theory, be shut out of November entirely. It is a moment that reveals how a single act of political consolidation can reorder a fragmented landscape, and how the rules of a contest shape its meaning as much as the candidates themselves.
- Trump's Truth Social endorsement of Hilton in the predawn hours signals a deliberate attempt to unify California Republicans around one candidate before the June 2 primary.
- With eight prominent Democrats splitting the vote and no single contender breaking 17 percent in recent polling, the fragmented left faces a structural vulnerability it has not yet resolved.
- Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, the other major Republican in the race, now runs against both a crowded field and the gravitational pull of a presidential endorsement.
- California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks has already sounded the alarm, urging lower-viability candidates to reconsider their runs before the fractured vote produces an unthinkable outcome.
- The race now turns on whether Hilton can convert endorsement energy into actual ballots, and whether any Democrat can emerge from the pack with enough momentum to guarantee a place in November.
President Trump took to Truth Social in the early morning hours to deliver a pointed message to California: Steve Hilton, the former Fox News host and onetime adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron, had his full endorsement for governor. The language was emphatic, the timing deliberate. Trump promised federal support if Hilton prevailed and framed the contest as a verdict on what he characterized as the Democratic Party's failed stewardship of the state.
The endorsement drops into an unusual arena. California's 'jungle primary' sends the top two vote-getters to the general election regardless of party affiliation, meaning eight prominent Democrats and two Republicans are competing on the same June 2 ballot with no guarantee a Democrat survives to November. A UC Berkeley poll from last month found Hilton and fellow Republican Chad Bianco leading at 17 and 16 percent respectively, with Democrats Eric Swalwell and Katie Porter close behind — all within the margin of error. Trump's backing effectively designates Hilton as the consolidation candidate, leaving Bianco to navigate a race now tilted against him.
The Democratic field remains sprawling and leaderless: Swalwell, former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra, Porter, former LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, billionaire Tom Steyer, state Superintendent Tony Thurmond, former Controller Betty Yee, and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan are all in the race, none dominant. California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks sent an open letter in March urging candidates without viable paths to reconsider, acknowledging that while two Republicans advancing was unlikely, the structural risk was real enough to warrant concern.
What unfolds next depends on whether Hilton can translate a presidential endorsement into votes, and whether any Democrat can break through the noise of a crowded field before June.
President Trump posted to Truth Social in the early morning hours with a message for California voters: Steve Hilton, the former Fox News host and onetime adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron, had his complete endorsement for governor. The timing was deliberate, the language emphatic. Trump promised federal help if Hilton won, and he framed the race as a referendum on what he called the failed leadership of the state's Democrats, particularly Governor Gavin Newsom.
The endorsement lands in a race unlike most others. California's primary system—often called the "jungle primary"—sends the top two vote-getters to the general election regardless of party. This year, that means eight prominent Democrats and two prominent Republicans are all competing on the same June 2 ballot, with no guarantee that a Democrat will even make it to November. Trump's backing of Hilton, a former aide to a British Conservative prime minister who became a television personality, effectively signals which Republican he believes can consolidate the party's support. The other major GOP candidate, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, now faces a significant headwind.
The Democratic field is sprawling. It includes Representative Eric Swalwell, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Representative Katie Porter, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, billionaire Tom Steyer, state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, former state Controller Betty Yee, and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan. None of them has emerged as a clear frontrunner. A poll conducted last month by the Institute of Governmental Studies at UC Berkeley found that no candidate had secured more than 17 percent of voter preference. Hilton and Bianco led that survey at 17 and 16 percent respectively, with Swalwell at 14 percent and Porter at 13 percent. The margins were tight enough that several candidates fell within the polling error.
This fragmentation has alarmed Democratic Party leadership. In March, California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks sent an open letter to candidates urging those without a viable path forward to reconsider running. He acknowledged that while it was unlikely two Republicans would advance and lock Democrats out of the general election entirely, the possibility existed and was worth taking seriously. His concern reflected a real structural vulnerability: Trump's endorsement of a single Republican candidate could consolidate GOP voters in a way the Democratic vote, split across eight candidates, might never match.
What happens next depends partly on whether Hilton can convert Trump's endorsement into actual votes, and partly on whether any Democrat can break through the crowded field. The primary is scheduled for June 2, and the general election will follow in November. For now, Trump has made his choice clear, and the race has a new dynamic.
Notable Quotes
Steve can turn it around, before it is too late, and, as President, I will help him to do so!— President Trump, in Truth Social post
While it is implausible, it is not impossible that two Republicans could lock out California Democrats from the general election— California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Trump's endorsement matter so much in a state he lost twice?
Because California's primary system doesn't care about party. The top two candidates advance regardless. If Trump can consolidate Republican voters around Hilton while Democrats stay split across eight candidates, two Republicans could face off in November. That's the nightmare scenario for Democrats.
Is that actually likely to happen?
The Democratic Party chair said it's unlikely but not impossible. The polling is so fragmented right now—no one above 17 percent—that it's genuinely unclear. Trump's endorsement could be the thing that tips the balance.
What does Hilton bring to the race besides Trump's name?
He's a television personality with a conservative platform, but he's not a traditional politician. He was an adviser to a British prime minister. In a state where voters are clearly unsettled, that outsider status might matter.
And the Democrats just have to hope one of them breaks through?
Essentially. The party chair basically asked some candidates to drop out to consolidate the vote. But that's hard to enforce. Everyone thinks they have a shot.
What's the real story underneath this?
It's about whether a fractured opposition can survive a unified challenger. Trump is trying to engineer that unity. Whether it works depends on whether voters follow his lead.