Trump centers himself in midterms despite not being on ballot

Donald Trump took the stage at the American Airlines Center in Dallas on Wednesday night, and within minutes made clear that the midterm elections in November belonged to him—even though his name would not appear on a single ballot. "When I'm on the ticket, Republicans always do very well," he told the crowd. "But for some reason, when a president wins, even if he's a really good or great president, they don't win the midterms. We're gonna change that. So I'm asking you to pretend that I'm on the ballot."

The Republican Party had convened its first-ever midterm convention as the party faced a genuinely difficult stretch. Control of the House and Senate hung in the balance, and losing either chamber would substantially constrain Trump's ability to govern. Vice President JD Vance had been scheduled to headline the opening night, but Trump replaced him at the last moment. No explanation was offered. The convention would continue into Thursday.

Trump's strategy was unambiguous: he would make himself the centerpiece of the final two months of campaigning. He identified roughly 35 competitive races and promised to visit every state where those contests were unfolding. "We can win every one of those races," he said. "But I'm going to every one of those states for congressman and for senators. We are going to have rallies just like this." The pledge came with a caveat that political insiders had already begun circulating: Trump's presence in tight races could energize Democratic voters, who had already turned out in substantial numbers during primary season. Some Republican candidates had chosen to skip the Dallas convention entirely, preferring to campaign in their own districts.

Trump also announced a $5,000 "dividend" for all adult citizens if Republicans maintained control of both chambers—a pledge whose legal feasibility remained unclear. He then pivoted to the war on Iran, which he had launched alongside Israel on February 28. Seven months in, the conflict had become a political liability. Oil prices had climbed above $100 a barrel for the first time since July. Polls showed widespread disapproval. Yet Trump leaned into the conflict, claiming the United States was "winning" and controlling the Strait of Hormuz, despite Tehran continuing to restrict transit through the waterway. He floated renaming it "the Trump strait" and suggested a potential strike on Iran's Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site.

The convention functioned partly as a fundraising vehicle. Texas, as J Matthew Wilson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University, noted, is "the epicentre for a lot of GOP campaign cash." An array of embattled Republicans took the stage to pitch themselves to major donors. Ken Paxton, the Texas Attorney General, was among them. Paxton trailed Democrat James Talarico in the polls—a significant development, since a Talarico victory would mark the first time a Democrat had won statewide office in Texas since 1994. "If we lose Texas, we lose the common sense revolution," Paxton said. "If we lose the common sense revolution, we lose America."

Trump spent particular time on Paxton, offering an endorsement that was as much insult as compliment. "He may not dress right, he may not talk exactly perfectly, and he may not be the best-looking guy I've ever seen," Trump said, before calling him "the greatest attorney general in America." Other candidates featured included Monica de La Cruz, facing a tight race in a border district; Jon Husted, running against former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown; and Mike Collins, hoping to unseat Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff in Georgia. In a surprise moment, Democrat John Fetterman appeared by video to introduce Republican Senator Dave McCormick, neither of whom faced re-election in November.

The messaging throughout the night coalesced around a single frame: "mainstream versus the extreme." Speakers praised Trump's immigration policies, which had effectively closed the southern border alongside a mass deportation drive. They highlighted tax cuts from Trump's signature tax bill, the One Big Beautiful Bill. But the rhetorical thrust centered on attacking progressive Democrats. Republican Representative Brandon Gill called the election a choice between "mainstream" and "extreme," specifically naming DSA-aligned candidates Darializa Avila Chevalier and Claire Valdez in New York, and progressive Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan. He condemned El-Sayed's support from streaming personality Hasan Piker, whose past comments about September 11 had drawn repeated criticism throughout the night. "There's another political movement in our country right now that doesn't believe that America is or ever was great," Gill said. "They sometimes call themselves socialists. Some even call themselves communists. But most of them simply go by Democrats."

The atmosphere resembled a Trump rally more than a traditional party convention. Attorney General Todd Blanche and Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent took the stage. Maria Garcia, a 57-year-old supporter from Boise, Idaho, said she hoped the event would motivate turnout. But beneath the enthusiasm lay a harder reality. On Monday, the nonpartisan Decision Desk HQ had shifted its Senate forecast to a "pure toss-up." Democrats remained widely favored to take the House. In Texas specifically, Talarico was outperforming Paxton despite Trump's May endorsement, according to Evan Roth Smith, a founding partner at Slingshot Strategies. "We see Paxton trailing and trailing now outside the margin of error," Smith said. "We now see Talarico creeping closer and closer to a 50 percent mark, which would mean he has an advantage that is much more durable."