Taiwan could become a very dangerous situation if mishandled
In the long arc of great-power diplomacy, small silences carry enormous weight. President Trump, who twice promised publicly to call Taiwan's leader before deciding on a new arms package, quietly abandoned that commitment after Xi Jinping warned him in Beijing that Taiwan could become a 'very dangerous situation.' The unplaced call — a gesture that would have broken a diplomatic norm untouched since 1979 — has been shelved ahead of a potential Xi state visit to the United States this fall, leaving Taiwan waiting and the durability of American commitments once again an open question.
- A public promise made twice on Air Force One has been quietly retired without announcement, explanation, or acknowledgment — the kind of reversal that speaks loudest in its silence.
- Xi Jinping's direct warning to Trump in Beijing — that mishandling Taiwan could produce a 'very dangerous situation' — appears to have functioned as precisely the friction-removal Beijing intended.
- Taiwan's de facto embassy in Washington is still waiting for word on when, or whether, the call will happen, suspended in a diplomatic limbo that carries its own message.
- A pending $11 billion-plus arms package awaits Secretary Rubio's signature, and sources say the delay is unrelated to military need — raising the question of what, exactly, it is related to.
- The gravitational pull of a potential U.S.-China summit is bending American policy in real time, testing whether Reagan-era legal commitments to Taiwan can hold against the weight of summit diplomacy.
President Trump told reporters in mid-May — twice, with casual certainty — that he would call Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te before deciding on a new military aid package. Then he went to Beijing. Xi Jinping described Taiwan as a potential 'very dangerous situation' if mishandled, and the call never happened.
By late May, multiple sources confirmed to CBS News that Trump no longer planned to speak with Lai before Xi's potential fall visit to the United States. The reversal came without announcement. Taiwan's representative office in Washington said it was still waiting to hear from the U.S. A White House official offered only a redirect to Trump's earlier remarks.
The stakes are not merely procedural. No sitting American president has spoken directly with a Taiwanese leader since 1979, a protocol rooted in China's claim that Taiwan is its own territory — one it has vowed to reclaim by force if necessary. When Trump first floated the call, Beijing's Foreign Ministry responded immediately, opposing any official exchanges and reaffirming its opposition to U.S. arms sales to the island.
Trump had framed the call as practical — he wanted Taiwan's perspective before approving weapons. Taiwan's representative Alexander Yui had welcomed it, saying Lai would want to share 'the Taiwan story, one of resiliency.' But after Beijing's warning, the momentum dissolved.
The diplomatic calendar adds pressure. Trump invited Xi to visit on September 24; China has not accepted, with a diplomat noting that 'favorable conditions have to be created' first. A call with Taiwan's president would not look like a favorable condition.
Legal architecture complicates the picture further. A Reagan-era agreement commits the U.S. not to cut arms sales to Taiwan or consult Beijing before making them — a pledge Trump acknowledged but declined to treat as binding. An $11 billion arms package approved in December was followed by a second under consideration since January, still awaiting State Department approval and Rubio's signature. Sources say the delay is unrelated to military need and a decision is expected soon.
What remains is the larger question: whether the American commitment to Taiwan — written into law, reaffirmed across decades — can hold its shape under the gravitational pull of two great powers arranging a summit.
President Trump promised in mid-May to call Taiwan's leader before deciding on a new military aid package. He said it twice, to reporters, with the kind of casual certainty that makes headlines. Then he visited Beijing. Xi Jinping told him, in what Trump later described as a detailed conversation, that Taiwan could become a "very dangerous situation" if handled wrong. The call never happened.
By late May, multiple sources told CBS News that Trump no longer planned to speak with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te before Xi's potential visit to the United States in the fall. The shift was quiet—no announcement, no explanation. Taiwan's de facto embassy in Washington said it was still waiting to hear from the U.S. about when the conversation might occur. A White House official, asked about it, simply pointed back to Trump's earlier comments.
The reversal matters because no sitting American president has spoken directly with a Taiwanese leader since 1979. The diplomatic protocol exists for a reason: China claims Taiwan as its own territory and has long vowed to "reunify" the island, by force if necessary. When Trump mentioned the potential call in May, China's Foreign Ministry responded swiftly, saying Beijing opposed any "official exchanges" between the U.S. and Taiwan, and that American arms sales to the island were a matter of unwavering principle.
Trump had framed the call as a practical step. He wanted to hear Taiwan's perspective before greenlighting weapons. "I have to speak to the person that right now is—you know who he is—that's running Taiwan," he said on Air Force One. Taiwan's representative to the U.S., Alexander Yui, had welcomed the idea, saying Lai would want to share "our side of the story, the Taiwan story, which is one that—of resiliency, of a state staying up against the Chinese aggression." But after Beijing's warning, the momentum stopped.
The timing is delicate. Trump invited Xi to visit on September 24, though China has not yet accepted. A Chinese diplomat said the date still needs to be determined and that "favorable conditions have to be created prior to such an important state visit." The message was implicit: smooth the path. In that context, a call with Taiwan's president looked like friction.
There is a legal framework that complicates this picture. In 1982, the Reagan administration signed an agreement pledging that the U.S. would not cut off arms sales to Taiwan and would not consult with Beijing before making them. Trump acknowledged this during his return from China, saying he would not refuse to discuss the matter simply because of a 40-year-old agreement. Yet the last arms sale to Taiwan, announced in December, totaled $11 billion. A subsequent package has been under consideration since January and still awaits the State Department's approval and Secretary of State Marco Rubio's signature. A source said the delay was unrelated to operational needs and that a decision was expected "soon."
Two sources close to the discussions told CBS News that Trump likes to keep his options open. The call with Lai might still happen. But the public promise made in May, the one that drew headlines and a swift rebuke from Beijing, has been shelved. What remains is the question of whether the U.S. commitment to Taiwan—written into law, reaffirmed across administrations—can survive the gravitational pull of a potential summit between two great powers.
Notable Quotes
I have to speak to the person that right now is—you know who he is—that's running Taiwan— President Trump, on Air Force One in mid-May
Favorable conditions have to be created prior to such an important state visit— Chinese diplomat Qiu Wenxing, regarding Xi's potential U.S. visit
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why did Trump reverse course on the Taiwan call so quickly?
Because Xi told him it was dangerous. Not in those exact words, but the message was clear: handle this wrong and you create a problem. Trump was in Beijing, face to face, and he heard it directly.
But Trump had already said publicly he would call. Twice.
Yes. That's the awkward part. He made a commitment to reporters, then visited China, then the commitment evaporated. The call was supposed to be about hearing Taiwan's side before approving weapons. But approving weapons is itself a provocation to Beijing.
So he's choosing the Xi visit over Taiwan?
He's choosing to keep the Xi visit possible. An invitation is not an acceptance. China said the date has to be determined and conditions have to be created. A call with Taipei would not create favorable conditions.
What about the Reagan agreement? Doesn't that require the U.S. to sell arms without asking Beijing first?
It does. Trump even cited it. But citing a rule and following it are different things. The weapons sale from December went through. The next one is still waiting for approval. The call was supposed to precede that decision. Now it won't.
Is Taiwan just out of luck?
Taiwan's embassy says communications remain open and smooth. But they're also waiting to hear when the call will happen. They're in a position where they can't push too hard without making things worse.