In a decision that may define his presidency and reshape the Middle East for generations, President Trump authorized Operation Epic Fury — a sweeping joint military campaign with Israel against Iran — despite explicit warnings from his own national security team that American lives would be lost and that Iranian retaliation could overwhelm U.S. defenses in the region. The operation reflects a long-standing American calculation that the risks of action, however grave, may be preferable to the risks of inaction — though history reminds us that such calculations are rarely as clean in practice as
Trump Briefed on 'High-Risk, High-Reward' Iran Operation Before Strikes
Trump acknowledged that lives of American military personnel may be lost in the operation; Iranian retaliatory strikes have been launched against Israel and Gulf Arab countries.
Some Iranian weapons will get through
Mark
So Trump knew this was dangerous before he ordered it. The briefings spelled out the risks.
Mimi
Yes. His team told him Iranian missiles could overwhelm the air defenses they'd put in place, that proxies could hit troops in Iraq and Syria. He acknowledged in his own statement that American lives might be lost.
Luke
But did they tell him what success actually looks like? The reporting says the Pentagon's planning didn't guarantee any outcome. That's a pretty big gap.
Mimi
Right. Trump's calling for regime change, for destroying the entire Iranian military, for denying them nuclear capability. But those are political objectives, not military ones. The strikes happened, but whether they achieve what he wants is still open.
Mark
And Iran can still hit back hard.
Mimi
Substantially. They have more ballistic missiles than we have interceptors in the region. Drones, cyber capabilities. The expert quoted in the reporting—Shapiro—said some Iranian weapons will get through.
Luke
So we're in a conflict where both sides have already struck, and the U.S. has acknowledged it can't stop all the retaliation. That's the actual situation.
Mimi
That's the situation. And the Iranian opposition is fragmented, so the domestic pressure Trump is counting on may not materialize.
Mark
This seems like the kind of decision where you need to be very confident about what comes next.
Luke
Or very willing to accept that you're not. The reporting doesn't show confidence. It shows risk acknowledged and accepted.
Mimi
Which is what Trump said. He framed it as a long-term play, not a short-term one. But long-term plays in the Middle East have a way of surprising you.
El Pulso
- Trump approved the strikes knowing his own advisors warned that Iranian missiles could overwhelm hastily deployed U.S. air defenses and that proxy forces could strike American troops in Iraq and Syria.
- The operation — carried out jointly with Israeli forces — immediately triggered Iranian retaliation against Israel and Gulf Arab states, pulling the broader region into open conflict.
- Trump's stated ambitions are sweeping: destroy Iran's missile forces, dismantle its navy, neutralize proxy networks, and potentially topple the Islamic Republic itself — objectives experts describe as historically unprecedented in their scope.
- Iran's Revolutionary Guards have vowed relentless retaliation, and defense analysts warn that Iran holds far more ballistic missiles capable of reaching U.S. bases than American interceptors can stop — meaning some strikes will inevitably land.
- The fragmented state of Iran's domestic opposition leaves uncertain whether military pressure will produce the popular uprising Trump called for, or instead consolidate the regime's grip on power.
In a decision that may define his presidency and reshape the Middle East for generations, President Trump authorized Operation Epic Fury — a sweeping joint military campaign with Israel against Iran — despite explicit warnings from his own national security team that American lives would be lost and that Iranian retaliation could overwhelm U.S. defenses in the region. The operation reflects a long-standing American calculation that the risks of action, however grave, may be preferable to the risks of inaction — though history reminds us that such calculations are rarely as clean in practice as they appear in briefing rooms. The region now holds its breath as missiles fly and the architecture of Middle Eastern power faces its most consequential test in decades.
President Trump authorized Operation Epic Fury on Saturday, a joint military campaign with Israel targeting military installations across Iran. The decision came after days of high-level briefings in the White House Situation Room, where the CIA director, Joint Chiefs chairman, secretaries of State and Defense, and the commander of U.S. Central Command all participated in deliberations framing the operation as high-risk but potentially transformative for American interests in the Middle East.
The warnings were not softened. Officials told Trump that Iranian missile strikes could overwhelm regional air defenses, and that proxy forces in Iraq and Syria posed real dangers to American troops. Trump acknowledged as much publicly, stating in a video address that American lives may be lost — framing the sacrifice as necessary for a future free from decades of Iranian hostility. His objectives were expansive: destroying Iran's missile and naval capabilities, dismantling proxy networks, and calling on Iranians to overthrow their own government.
Iran responded immediately. The Revolutionary Guards launched retaliatory strikes against Israel and Gulf Arab states and vowed to continue until the enemy was defeated. Defense experts caution that Iran's arsenal — ballistic missiles, drones, and cyber capabilities — exceeds what U.S. interceptors in the region can reliably stop. Former Pentagon official Daniel Shapiro noted plainly that some Iranian weapons will get through.
The operation surpasses in ambition and risk anything Trump has ordered since taking office, including a special operations raid into Venezuela and an earlier bombing campaign against Iranian nuclear sites. Analysts warn the conflict's trajectory remains deeply uncertain, and that the fragmented state of Iran's opposition makes any swift political collapse in Tehran far from guaranteed.
President Trump authorized what the Pentagon called Operation Epic Fury on Saturday, a sweeping military campaign against Iran that officials had framed to him as a high-risk, high-reward proposition. The strikes, carried out jointly with Israeli forces, targeted military installations across Iran and triggered immediate Iranian retaliation against Israel and neighboring Gulf Arab states, plunging the region into a new and volatile conflict.
In the days before the operation launched, Trump received multiple briefings from his national security apparatus. CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Caine, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth all participated in discussions about the plan. Admiral Brad Cooper, who commands U.S. Central Command, flew to Washington on Thursday to join deliberations in the White House Situation Room. According to officials who spoke anonymously due to the sensitivity of the internal discussions, the briefers presented the operation as carrying substantial risk alongside the possibility of a generational shift in Middle East dynamics favoring American interests.
The national security team did not minimize the dangers. Officials warned Trump that Iranian missile strikes could overwhelm the air defense systems hastily deployed to the region, and that Iranian proxy forces could attack U.S. troops stationed in Iraq and Syria. Despite the massive military buildup ordered by Trump in the weeks before the strikes, there were acknowledged limits to what the defensive systems could actually protect. Trump himself, in a video address announcing the start of major combat operations, acknowledged the stakes plainly: "the lives of courageous American heroes may be lost." He framed the operation as necessary for the future, not the present, and invoked decades of Iranian hostility toward the United States.
Trump's stated objectives were expansive. He announced plans to destroy Iran's missile forces and dismantle its missile industry, annihilate its navy, and ensure that regional proxy forces could no longer destabilize the area or attack American personnel. An Israeli official said that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian were both targeted, though the results of the strikes remained unclear. Trump also called on Iranians to overthrow their government, though experts noted that the Iranian opposition is fragmented and it remains uncertain whether the population would rise up in response to military pressure.
This operation represents Trump's most ambitious military gamble since taking office. It exceeds in scope and risk the special operations raid into Venezuela last month to seize that country's president, and it is riskier than the June bombing campaign against Iranian nuclear sites. The Pentagon's planning, according to officials, did not appear to guarantee any particular outcome of the conflict.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards responded by threatening all U.S. bases and interests in the region and vowing that retaliation would continue until the enemy was decisively defeated. Experts caution that Iran retains substantial capacity to inflict damage. Daniel Shapiro, a former senior Pentagon official for Middle East issues and former U.S. ambassador to Israel, noted that Iran possesses far more ballistic missiles capable of reaching U.S. bases than the U.S. has interceptors to stop them. Some Iranian weapons, he said, would inevitably get through. Beyond missiles, Iran has options including drone strikes and cyber warfare. Nicole Grajewski of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace cautioned that the unfolding conflict could take dangerous turns, and that the fragmented nature of Iranian opposition means it is unclear what domestic pressure might emerge against the Tehran government.
Citas Notables
The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost. But we're doing this not for now, we're doing this for the future, and it is a noble mission.— President Trump, in a video address announcing the start of major combat operations
Iran has many more ballistic missiles that can reach U.S. bases than the U.S. has interceptors. Some Iranian weapons will get through. This is a major gamble.— Daniel Shapiro, former senior Pentagon official for Middle East issues and former U.S. ambassador to Israel
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