Trump arrives in Beijing for high-stakes summit with Xi on trade, Taiwan arms and Iran

Donald Trump landed in Beijing on Wednesday evening to begin what both sides are calling a consequential summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, though the substance of their talks won't begin until Thursday. The Chinese government staged an elaborate arrival ceremony—military honor guard, a brass band, three hundred young people waving flags and chanting welcomes—and rolled out the red carpet literally as Air Force One touched down. Vice President Han Zheng greeted Trump along with China's ambassador to Washington and other senior officials. The pageantry was unmistakable: this was a state visit designed to project stability and mutual respect between the world's two largest economies.

Trump arrived with a large delegation that included his family, aides, and prominent business figures like Nvidia's Jensen Huang and Elon Musk. Before leaving Washington, he had already begun framing the trip as a success, musing publicly about Xi's planned reciprocal visit to the United States later in the year and expressing regret that the White House ballroom would still be under construction. "We're going to have a great relationship for many, many decades to come," Trump said of the U.S. and China. He also signaled his priorities: trade deals on American soybeans, beef, and aircraft topped his list. The two nations are working toward establishing a Board of Trade intended to prevent another escalation like the tariff war that erupted last year after Trump raised duties on Chinese goods. China responded by restricting access to rare earth minerals, a move that led to a one-year truce negotiated last October.

But Trump arrives at a moment when his presidency is under domestic pressure. The war between the United States and Israel against Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, stranding oil and natural gas tankers and driving energy prices upward in ways that threaten global economic stability. Inflation tied to the conflict has weighed on his popularity at home. When asked about Iran before departing for Beijing, Trump downplayed its role in the summit. "We have Iran very much under control," he told reporters, suggesting it would not be a major topic despite the fact that Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had been in Beijing just days earlier.

Taiwan will loom large over the talks, even if it remains unspoken for stretches. Trump authorized an $11 billion weapons package for Taiwan in December—the largest ever approved for the self-governing island—and told reporters Monday he would discuss it with Xi. China views Taiwan as part of its own territory and has made clear its displeasure with American military support for the island. The Chinese Communist Party's official newspaper, People's Daily, published a sharply worded editorial before Trump's arrival declaring that Taiwan represents "the first red line that cannot be crossed in China-U.S. relations" and is "the biggest point of risk" between the two nations. Yet Trump has shown what observers describe as ambivalence toward Taiwan's security, raising questions about whether he might be willing to reduce American commitment to the island's defense. The stakes are complicated by Taiwan's role as the world's leading chipmaker—essential for artificial intelligence development—and by the fact that the U.S. is currently importing more goods from Taiwan than from China.

Trump also intends to propose a three-way nuclear arms agreement involving the United States, China, and Russia. The New START treaty between Washington and Moscow expired in February, removing any caps on the two largest nuclear arsenals for the first time in more than fifty years. Trump rejected Russia's call to extend that bilateral deal and instead called for a new agreement that would include China. The Pentagon estimates China possesses more than six hundred operational nuclear warheads today and will have over one thousand by 2030—far fewer than the more than five thousand each held by the United States and Russia. China has historically resisted entering such a pact, viewing its smaller arsenal as a disadvantage.

Scott Kennedy, a senior adviser on Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, suggested that China may be entering the summit from a position of strength. Beijing wants reduced restrictions on computer chip technology and lower tariffs, among other concessions. "But even if they don't get much on any of those things, as long as there's not a blow-up in the meeting and President Trump doesn't go away and look to re-escalate, China basically comes out stronger," Kennedy said. Before the formal bilateral talks on Thursday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met on Wednesday at an airport near Seoul to discuss trade and economic issues. The real test of whether Trump and Xi can find common ground on trade, Taiwan, nuclear weapons, and the broader U.S.-China relationship begins when they sit down face to face.