A phone call between two leaders, held on a quiet Saturday, carries the weight of a decision still unmade: Washington is weighing whether to return to the use of force against Iran, and Jerusalem is reading the situation as a contest of patience. Israeli defense assessments hold that Tehran, pressed by a worsening economy, is stalling negotiations rather than resolving them, and that the approach of the American midterm elections may restrain any strike unless a surprise attack appears on the horizon. Beneath the calculation lies an older human pattern, in which nations weigh the cost of waiti
Trump and Netanyahu Confer as US Readies Possible Renewed Iran Strikes, Though Analysts Expect Delay Past Midterms
Iran is merely attempting to buy time
Mark
Trump and Netanyahu spoke on Saturday. Why does a phone call carry weight here?
Mimi
It followed Trump's talks with senior military commanders about options for resuming operations. So the call reads as coordination after planning, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Mark
Yet the Israeli assessment says no strike before the midterms. Isn't that at odds with a buildup?
Mimi
Not necessarily. The assessment is that CENTCOM is preparing, but the White House won't order an operation unless it detects a surprise attack being prepared. Preparing and ordering are different things.
Luke
I'd flag how much of this is Israeli defense assessment. The claim that Iran is stalling, and the claim that it is prolonging talks for the midterms, are attributed, not confirmed. The text says reportedly.
Mark
What is firmer?
Mimi
Ten USAF transport aircraft arriving at bases in southern Israel, per KAN, with others landing in Jordan, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Also more than 3,000 US troops in Israel.
Luke
But even there, KAN says the aircraft are likely carrying air defense systems. That's inference about the cargo. The carrier and Marine unit are also only reported.
Mark
And the post-midterm strike plans?
Mimi
Reportedly drawn up by the US and Israel. Nothing public says when or whether they'd be used.
Luke
Right, and we don't know what the White House's offer to Iran actually contains, or whether Iran has answered it.
Der Puls
- Trump and Netanyahu spoke by phone as Washington moves toward resuming strikes on Iran, raising the stakes of every hour.
- Israeli defense officials believe Iran is deliberately dragging out talks while its economy deteriorates week by week.
- Air defense systems and a Patriot battery are moving across the region, with aircraft landing in Israel, Jordan, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
- A possible additional US carrier and Marine unit are reportedly lining up, while planners draft post-midterm strike options.
- Current trajectory points to a buildup that may continue, with any strike likely delayed until after November.
A phone call between two leaders, held on a quiet Saturday, carries the weight of a decision still unmade: Washington is weighing whether to return to the use of force against Iran, and Jerusalem is reading the situation as a contest of patience. Israeli defense assessments hold that Tehran, pressed by a worsening economy, is stalling negotiations rather than resolving them, and that the approach of the American midterm elections may restrain any strike unless a surprise attack appears on the horizon. Beneath the calculation lies an older human pattern, in which nations weigh the cost of waiting against the cost of acting, and in which the calendar of domestic politics can quietly shape the timing of war.
On Saturday, Donald Trump spoke by phone with Benjamin Netanyahu, as Washington prepared to resume strikes on Iran. The conversation followed a session in which Trump reviewed options for restarting military operations with senior commanders, and it unfolded against a backdrop of diplomatic uncertainty.
Inside Israel's defense establishment, the mood is one of skepticism. Officials believe the White House is giving Tehran one more chance to return to talks, but they doubt Iran will give up its nuclear program entirely or stop producing ballistic missiles that now threaten Europe as well. In their reading, Iran is buying time, perhaps stretching negotiations until after the American midterm elections.
That same reading suggests a pause. Despite preparations by US Central Command, Israeli officials expect no strike before the midterms unless intelligence reveals a surprise attack in the making. Plans for renewed strikes after the elections are reportedly already drawn up.
The visible signs are mixed. Some 3,000 American troops remain in Israel, and no sharp rise in redirected US aircraft was recorded last week. Still, ten US Air Force transport planes reached southern Israel from Fort Bliss, likely carrying air defense systems, as part of a wider convoy that also landed in Jordan, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. An additional Patriot system and possibly another carrier and Marine unit are also reported to be on the way.
What happens next depends on whether this buildup deepens and whether the assumption that the strike waits for the midterms holds.
On Saturday, US President Donald Trump spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to a Wall Street Journal report. The call came as Washington prepares to resume strikes on Iran, and it followed a session in which Trump discussed options for restarting military operations with senior military commanders.
Israel's defense establishment has been ambiguous about its own preparations for a possible escalation. According to Israeli defense assessments, the White House has been trying to give the Iranian government another chance to return to negotiations.
Those same officials doubt the effort will work. They assess that Iran, which faces an economic crisis that is worsening from week to week, will not sign an agreement requiring it to give up its nuclear program entirely. They also assess that Tehran will not agree to stop producing ballistic missiles, which the reporting says now threaten Europe as well. From that, Israeli officials conclude that Iran is only trying to buy time, and the reporting says Tehran has reportedly been deliberately prolonging the talks ahead of the US midterm elections.
The same assessments point to a delay in any American action. Defense officials believe that, despite preparations by US Central Command for a possible strike, the White House will not order an operation against Iran before the midterms unless it detects preparations for a surprise attack. The US and Israel have also reportedly drawn up plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the elections.
The visible military picture is mixed. More than 3,000 American troops are currently stationed in Israel, and no sharp increase was recorded last week in the number of US military aircraft redirected to the country. That contrasts with an earlier, unprecedented deployment of US refueling aircraft, which filled the runways at Ben-Gurion Airport and Ramon Airport and were also present in significant numbers at Israeli Air Force bases.
Still, there was movement. Last week, ten US Air Force transport aircraft arrived at Israeli Air Force bases in southern Israel, KAN News reported. They were part of a larger Middle East air convoy moving military equipment across the region, and they came from Fort Bliss in Texas. KAN said they are likely carrying air defense systems meant to protect regional assets, following reported US warnings earlier in the week of a potential "short, focused war with Iran."
Other aircraft in the convoy landed in Jordan, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The KAN report followed an earlier one that the US had sent an additional Patriot system to the region pending a possible escalation with Iran. An Israeli source told KAN that Washington and Jerusalem are coordinating closely on Iran, and that an additional US aircraft carrier and an additional Marine unit are reportedly set to join American forces in the region.
What to watch now is whether the buildup continues, including air defense transfers and the reported carrier and Marine deployments, and whether the assessment holds that any strike waits until after the midterms.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
The White House will not order an operation against Iran before the midterms unless it detects preparations for a surprise attack.— Israeli defense officials' assessment, as reported
The US has warned of a potential 'short, focused war with Iran.'— KAN News, citing reported US warnings
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