After two years of stillness, Toronto's housing market is finding its footing again — not through any sudden reversal of fortune, but through the slow, cumulative logic of falling borrowing costs. November's 6,450 home sales, the fourth consecutive monthly gain, reflect a quiet restoration of confidence among buyers who had simply been priced out of possibility. The Bank of Canada's rate cuts, now bringing five-year fixed mortgages to around 4.25 percent, are doing what policy always hopes to do: returning ordinary people to the table. The question ahead is not whether the market is moving, bu
Toronto home sales climb as mortgage rates fall below 4.25%
The market froze. But as the central bank began cutting rates, the thaw has begun.
Mark
So the market was basically frozen for two years. What changed?
Mimi
The Bank of Canada started cutting interest rates in June. Mortgage rates followed. When five-year fixed rates dropped below 4.25 percent, it suddenly made sense for people to buy again.
Luke
But we should be careful here—we're talking about a 1.9 percent monthly increase. That's real, but it's not a surge. October was up 12.1 percent, so November is actually a slowdown.
Mimi
True, but it's the fourth month in a row of gains. The trend is what matters.
Mark
Why are detached houses doing so well but condos are struggling?
Mimi
Detached houses are scarce relative to demand. Condos are flooding the market. When supply outpaces demand, prices fall. It's basic economics.
Luke
And we should note that the condo decline is only 2.5 percent year-over-year. That's not a crash. It's a modest correction in an oversupplied segment.
Mark
What happens in December?
Mimi
December is traditionally slow. Realtors are already seeing fewer showings. The real test is whether the momentum carries into 2025.
Luke
The Bank of Canada's rate decision next week could matter. If they cut again, that could give things a push. But we don't know yet.
Le Pouls
- Mortgage rates dropping below 4.25% have unlocked purchasing power for thousands of buyers who sat frozen on the sidelines for two years.
- Detached homes are drawing fierce competition — some properties attracting more than ten offers — while the condo market sags under a glut of unsold inventory.
- New listings jumped 4.4% in November as sellers, sensing the window reopening, moved to capitalize on renewed buyer appetite.
- Federal mortgage rule changes arriving in mid-December — longer amortizations and smaller required down payments — could accelerate the recovery further.
- December's traditional seasonal slowdown and lingering economic uncertainty mean the market's momentum remains fragile, even as its direction has clearly shifted upward.
After two years of stillness, Toronto's housing market is finding its footing again — not through any sudden reversal of fortune, but through the slow, cumulative logic of falling borrowing costs. November's 6,450 home sales, the fourth consecutive monthly gain, reflect a quiet restoration of confidence among buyers who had simply been priced out of possibility. The Bank of Canada's rate cuts, now bringing five-year fixed mortgages to around 4.25 percent, are doing what policy always hopes to do: returning ordinary people to the table. The question ahead is not whether the market is moving, but how evenly its recovery will be shared.
Toronto's housing market is stirring after two years of near-total stagnation. In November, home sales rose 1.9 percent to 6,450 transactions — the fourth straight month of gains — as mortgage rates on the popular five-year fixed product fell to around 4.25 percent, down sharply from above 5 percent earlier in the year. That difference, modest as it sounds, has been enough to bring thousands of sidelined buyers back into the market.
The freeze traced directly to the Bank of Canada's aggressive rate-hiking campaign in 2022 and 2023, which pushed borrowing costs so high that buyers in expensive cities like Toronto — where median prices exceed one million dollars — simply stopped shopping. As the central bank began cutting rates in June, the thaw began.
Not all segments of the market are thawing equally. Detached houses drew intense competition in November, with some properties attracting more than ten bids. The average detached home sold for $1,452,518, up 3.9 percent year-over-year. Condominiums told the opposite story: abundant supply, cautious buyers, and an average price of $689,599 — down 2.5 percent from a year ago.
New listings rose 4.4 percent in November as more homeowners sensed opportunity and moved to sell. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board is already anticipating an accelerating recovery in 2025, with prices still well below their early-2022 peak and further rate cuts expected. New federal mortgage policies taking effect in mid-December — allowing smaller down payments and 30-year amortizations for first-time buyers — could add further fuel.
For now, December's traditional quiet has settled in. But the direction of the market, after two years of decline, is unmistakably upward.
The Toronto housing market is stirring again. In November, home sales climbed 1.9 percent to 6,450 transactions, marking the fourth consecutive month of gains after two years of near-total stagnation. The shift is unmistakable to anyone watching: mortgage rates have tumbled to around 4.25 percent on the popular five-year fixed product, down sharply from above 5 percent earlier in the year. That difference, modest as it sounds, is enough to unlock purchasing power for thousands of people who had been locked out.
The market's long hibernation traces directly to the Bank of Canada's aggressive rate-hiking campaign in 2022 and 2023. Those moves, designed to combat inflation, pushed borrowing costs so high that prospective buyers—especially in expensive markets like Toronto and Vancouver, where median home prices exceed one million dollars—simply stopped shopping. The market froze. But as the central bank has begun cutting rates again, starting in June with four reductions so far, the thaw has begun.
What buyers are actually buying tells its own story. Detached houses and other low-rise properties drew the most interest in November, sparking bidding wars and multiple offers on individual properties. Some homes attracted more than ten bids. That competition kept prices from sliding: the average detached house in the Toronto region sold for $1,452,518 last month, up 3.9 percent from November 2023. Nicki Skinner, a realtor with Bosley Real Estate Ltd., described November as "pretty busy," a characterization that understates the intensity of competition for the properties buyers actually want.
Condominiums tell a different story. Both new and resale condos continue to flood the market, giving buyers abundant choice and little reason to bid aggressively. The average condo price fell to $689,599 in November, down 2.5 percent year-over-year. The supply-demand imbalance is stark: more inventory than buyers, which means prices move downward.
New listings rose 4.4 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, a reversal from October's 6.6 percent drop. More homeowners are deciding to sell, sensing that the window of opportunity is opening. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, which tracks these transactions, has already begun talking about an "accelerating market recovery" in 2025, pointing to home prices that remain well below their early-2022 peak and borrowing costs expected to decline further.
But the near term carries uncertainty. December is traditionally one of the slowest months for real estate activity, and realtors are already reporting a return to quieter days. The Bank of Canada's final rate announcement of the year comes next Wednesday, and another cut is widely expected, which could provide fresh momentum heading into the new year. Meanwhile, the federal government has introduced new mortgage policies set to take effect in mid-December that will allow buyers to make smaller down payments on expensive homes and permit first-time buyers to stretch payments over 30 years instead of 25. Whether these policy changes will prove decisive remains to be seen, but the direction of the market—after two years of decline—is unmistakably upward.
Citations marquantes
It was a pretty busy November— Nicki Skinner, realtor with Bosley Real Estate Ltd.
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