In the weeks before Nigeria's January 2027 election, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's ruling party has put its faith in the future, laying out a manifesto of growth, homes, security and power. The document asks citizens to measure the promises of his first term by where they lead. Yet the people who must live with that future, counting their daily naira, are not yet convinced that the gains visible in official charts have reached their tables and their fields.
Tinubu's Re-election Manifesto Faces a Harder Test: Winning Back Voters Who Feel the Cost of Reform
Many Nigerian families say they cannot survive on 10,000 naira a day, and insecurity keeps northern farmers from returning safely to their fields.
Stability in the national figures, instability in the household budget
Mark
The headline numbers look decent. Inflation is down to 14% from 34%. Why is the manifesto still a hard sell?
Mimi
Because the stability shows up in national statistics, while the pain shows up at the market stall. Imported rice rose 184% over about two and a half years, and families told a BudgIT survey they can't live on 10,000 naira a day.
Luke
Worth noting that survey is one organisation's, and the 184% is one analysis. Both are credible sources, but they're single sources.
Mark
And the jollof drop of 11.5%?
Mimi
It's the sharpest in the index's ten-year history, which sounds like relief. But the index's own head says it hasn't reached most households.
Luke
Right, so a falling price doesn't mean prices are low. That's a gap the manifesto has to close.
Mark
What about Atiku's promise to restore the subsidy?
Mimi
Osiyemi points to a 68.32tn naira budget with 15.8tn going to debt service. That's his reading of the limits, not a formal costing.
Luke
And we don't know how Atiku would pay for it. Nothing in the reporting says.
Mark
The 10,000MW power target?
Mimi
Nigeria generated an average of 4,223MW in 2024 against 13,625MW installed. Okonkwo says the manifesto doesn't say where the investment comes from.
Luke
So the target is stated, but the financing is unknown, at least from what's been published here.
Il Polso
- Tinubu's APC has unveiled a re-election manifesto promising 6% growth, 200,000 homes and 78,000 new security personnel by 2031.
- Inflation has fallen from 34% to 14%, yet households say they cannot survive on 10,000 naira a day after fuel subsidy removal.
- Farmers in the north hesitate to return to their fields, threatening the food and oil output the growth plan depends on.
- Power generation averages only a third of installed capacity, and the manifesto has not named where the money will come from.
- With voters heading to the polls in January, the opposition is promising to restore the fuel subsidy, and analysts doubt the ballot will turn on promises alone.
In the weeks before Nigeria's January 2027 election, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's ruling party has put its faith in the future, laying out a manifesto of growth, homes, security and power. The document asks citizens to measure the promises of his first term by where they lead. Yet the people who must live with that future, counting their daily naira, are not yet convinced that the gains visible in official charts have reached their tables and their fields.
On 10 November, Nigeria's ruling All Progressives Congress launched the re-election manifesto of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, titled From Reform to Prosperity. It asks voters to judge him on where the reforms of his first term are meant to lead, with the general election due in January 2027.
The targets are concrete: 6% annual growth by 2031, 78,000 more security personnel, 200,000 affordable homes, and electricity generation pushed toward 10,000MW. The plan builds on the removal of the fuel subsidy, the unification of exchange rates and tax reform. Official figures show inflation down to 14% from a 2024 peak of 34%, which the World Bank and IMF have welcomed.
For many households, however, the story is harder. Families report they cannot survive on 10,000 naira a day, and imported rice and staples have climbed sharply since 2023. Some signs of easing have appeared, but analysts warn that Nigerians still spend a growing share of their income on basics, a pressure that can be punished at the polls.
The security challenge runs deepest in the north, where insecurity keeps farmers from their land, threatening the agricultural output growth requires. Power remains a gap as well, with generation far below capacity and no clear funding source named for the plan's ambitions. Opposition candidates, including Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, are contesting the agenda, while analysts expect the incumbent to benefit from a divided opposition, though winning back trust remains a tall order.
On 10 November, Nigeria's ruling All Progressives Congress launched the re-election manifesto of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. It is titled From Reform to Prosperity, and it asks voters to judge him on where the reforms of his first term are meant to lead. The general election is due in January 2027, about two months away.
The targets are specific. The plan aims for 6% annual economic growth by 2031, 78,000 additional security personnel and 200,000 affordable homes. Tinubu also promises to lower the cost of living and halve youth unemployment. On security, the 78,000 breaks down into 28,000 more military personnel and 50,000 more police officers. On electricity, he pledges to raise available generation towards 10,000MW.
The manifesto builds on what Tinubu did after his election in 2023: removing the fuel subsidy, harmonising official and parallel foreign exchange rates, and reforming taxes in Africa's largest oil producer. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund praised the changes. Official figures show headline inflation at 14% in September 2026, down from a high of 34% in 2024, and the gap between official and parallel exchange rates has narrowed. Tinubu has said that ending the subsidy freed up more than one trillion naira in government resources in the first two months alone.
Households tell a harder story. Joshua Osiyemi, who heads Tracka, a platform run by the BudgIT Foundation, says fuel prices rose and everything Nigerians consume followed. A survey by his organisation found most families saying they cannot survive on 10,000 naira a day, about $7.40. Analysis by the International Centre for Investigative Reporting found imported rice up 184% between May 2023 and October 2025, with beans, garri and bread also sharply higher. There are signs of easing: SBM Intelligence found the cost of a pot of jollof rice fell 11.5% between June and September 2026, the steepest drop in the ten years of its Jollof Index. Ikenna Okonkwo, its head of research, says that has not brought real relief, because Nigerians spend a growing share of income on basics. He warns that such conditions can be punished at the polls. Tinubu has since said he will work to reduce fuel costs, and his administration announced a 125bn naira package of grants and loans for small businesses and manufacturers.
The opposition is pressing on the subsidy. Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar wrote on X that he will restore it. Osiyemi doubts that is feasible: the 2026 budget is about 68.32tn naira, with 15.8tn going to debt servicing.
Delivering on the growth target would need more oil and agricultural output, but much of the farming is in the north, where insecurity has made it harder. Osiyemi says many farmers are unsure they would return home safely from their fields. Okonkwo says the problem, which involves jihadists, kidnap gangs and herder-farmer conflict in central Nigeria, is more complex than recruiting soldiers. Peter Obi, the Nigeria Democratic Congress candidate who came third in 2023, also unveiled his agenda on 10 November. Under the slogan "A New Nigeria is Possible", it puts national unity first and security second, with a pledge to pursue anyone who kidnaps schoolchildren.
Power is another gap. The regulator says Nigeria had 13,625MW of installed capacity at the end of 2024 but generated an average of only 4,223MW. Causes include ageing infrastructure, poor maintenance, gas supply limits and funding shortfalls, and privatised distribution companies have struggled to invest. Okonkwo notes the manifesto does not say where the money would come from. The 200,000 homes compare with a housing deficit that a housing ministry technical committee put at 14.9 million units in 2025.
In 2023 Tinubu was declared the winner with 8.79 million votes, helped, Okonkwo argues, by an opposition split between two strong candidates with regional bases. He expects a similar pattern, with the incumbent stronger and the opposition's earlier momentum faded. Winning back trust, he says, is a tall order for the APC.
Citazioni salienti
These kinds of things can get punished in polls.— Ikenna Okonkwo, head of research, SBM Intelligence
We are not fiscally strong enough to say that we want to return to the subsidy.— Joshua Osiyemi, head of Tracka (BudgIT Foundation)
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