The superpower battle over energy and what it means for your bills

On the Moray Firth near Inverness, a spit of sand and dunes called Whiteness Head curls into the sea. Behind it sits a yard where, for nearly 30 years, thousands of workers built the platforms that opened up North Sea oil. Ming Yang, one of China's biggest wind turbine makers, wanted to revive it with a £1.5bn factory and up to 1,500 jobs initially. In March, after US lawmakers urged the UK to block the plan, ministers refused it, citing national security. Last month they approved Jackdaw, a new North Sea gas field. No to Chinese wind turbines; yes to North Sea gas.

Both decisions sit inside a squeeze on British household bills. Forecasts from British Gas, EDF and E.ON suggest bills could jump by more than a quarter in January, around £460 extra a year for the typical household. The cause is distant: US and Israeli strikes on Iran in February effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, and oil and gas prices have soared. Winter is expected to push them higher, with Europe's gas stores at their lowest since records began in 2011. It is the second time in four years that a faraway war has reached British bills. The last shock, after Russia invaded Ukraine, cost households an extra £63bn, about £2,200 each, according to the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit and E3G.

The argument is playing out as COP31 opens in Antalya, Turkey, and it has a larger frame. The US is betting on fossil-fuel molecules, pumping record volumes of oil and gas and pressing allies to buy them. China is betting on electrons, supplying the solar panels, batteries and electric cars meant to replace those fuels. The UK buys nearly a quarter of its imported gas from America and much of its clean energy kit from China. Less than half its gas now comes from its own North Sea fields.

Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh says affordability is her overriding objective, though she calls climate change a priority after Britain's hottest summer on record, whose heatwaves, droughts and wildfires the Met Office's chief scientist told BBC Panorama would have been almost impossible without global warming. Her answer to exposure to global markets is homegrown clean energy. Two routes exist: drill more, or build more.

The drilling case is being pressed loudly. After Jackdaw's approval, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the UK should go "FULL BLAST" and take down the "costly and ridiculous windmills." The government now faces a decision on Rosebank, west of Shetland, the largest undeveloped UK oil field, expected within weeks and reportedly dividing the cabinet. Fahnbulleh has said it would produce about seven times Jackdaw's emissions. Kemi Badenoch has told the prime minister to "stop faffing about," and Reform UK's Richard Tice says using British gas will bring bills down. Fahnbulleh disagrees: oil and gas are sold on global markets. Tessa Khan of Uplift, which has fought Rosebank in court, says it does nothing for energy security and sends a dangerous signal on climate.

The numbers favour the sceptics. North Sea output has fallen by more than two-thirds since its 1999 peak, and the Office for Budget Responsibility expects a further fall of around 10% a year, even assuming Rosebank goes ahead. Jackdaw holds only a few months of UK gas demand; Rosebank less than a year of oil consumption. Last week the government introduced a bill to write its ban on new exploration licences into law, but Rosebank is already licensed and not covered.

Building is no simple fix either. The Climate Change Committee calculates that a 2022-style shock would raise bills 59% on a high-carbon path but only 4% on a renewables-focused one. Power from new solar fell 90% in cost between 2010 and 2024, and onshore wind 70%, per the International Renewable Energy Agency. But inflation and higher interest rates have pushed up up-front costs, and Ørsted scrapped Hornsea 4 last year. New networks are needed, and gas plants still often set wholesale power prices, so savings do not automatically reach bills.

Then there is China, which makes the vast majority of the world's solar panels and batteries and around two-thirds of its electric cars. In March its exports of those goods hit a record, up 70% on a year earlier, according to Ember. Asked if Britain is swapping dependence on petrostates for dependence on Beijing, Fahnbulleh said: "Well, look, we are." She wants more kit built in Britain, including turbines, yet the government has never publicly explained the security risk it saw in Ming Yang's. Two days before Jackdaw's approval, Japan's Sumitomo Electric opened Britain's first HVDC subsea cable factory at Nigg, creating up to 250 jobs.

With the US leaving the Paris agreement and not expected at COP, national pledges add up to a 6% emissions cut by 2035, a tenth of what is needed for 1.5C, says the UN. Li Shuo of the Asia Society Policy Institute calls China's growing role a "role reversal." The Rosebank decision, due within weeks, is the next test of which way Britain leans.