The 2022 World Series Is a Mirror for the Red Sox, Reflecting Their Past and Their Hoped-For Future

The World Series that opens this week pairs two teams that each hold up a different mirror to the Red Sox. Houston shows what Boston hopes to become. Philadelphia shows what Boston used to be, and then chose to stop being.

Start with the Astros. They have reached the American League Championship Series six straight seasons and the World Series in four of those. They sit in the upper tier of spenders, yet they have stayed nimble and kept evolving. The Globe's Alex Speier argues that this makes Houston the most relevant model for what the Sox are attempting, more so than the Dodgers or the Rays.

Those two clubs are the usual reference points, but each fits poorly. The Dodgers built their excellence on scouting and player development, then deployed resources beyond anything the Sox have ever used, with a willingness to spend upwards of $300 million. The Rays are too frugal to serve as a true template. For Boston, a Rays-like supply of cheap young talent is not the goal in itself. It is a prerequisite for pursuing and keeping established stars.

Houston sits in between. Like the Sox, the Astros have danced around the luxury tax threshold, typically carrying payrolls of $200 million or more. They went over it in 2020 but otherwise stayed just beneath the level that triggers penalties. Their budgets have been similar to Boston's recent ones, though usually slightly smaller. That spending has still meant turnover: ace Gerrit Cole, center fielder George Springer, and shortstop Carlos Correa all left. The Astros absorbed those losses because homegrown players such as Framber Valdez, Kyle Tucker, and Jeremy Peña were ready, along with a steady stream of dominant young pitchers.

They also locked up Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez on long-term deals when both were years from free agency, and made big-money commitments to Justin Verlander and Jose Altuve to preserve continuity. All of this followed a brutal, years-long stretch as the worst team in baseball in the early 2010s. Houston has moved past its scandalous 2017 championship to become, in Speier's words, the gold standard for sustainable success. That run also shows how daunting the job is for any team hoping to unseat them.

Philadelphia's connection to Boston is more direct, because of president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. He ran the Red Sox from 2015 to 2019, a stretch with three straight AL East titles, a historic 108-win season, and the 2018 championship. He was fired less than a year later. The club feared his star-centered approach would leave an aging, expensive roster in decline, a likely path to a long rebuild. Ownership hired Chaim Bloom as chief baseball officer to manage a stomach-churning period of parting with stars while developing the next wave. That included the gut-wrenching trade of Mookie Betts, which Dombrowski did not have to take part in.

Just over three years after his firing, the Sox have put two last-place finishes around a 2021 trip to the ALCS. Dombrowski is back in the Fall Classic with his fourth franchise, after trips with Boston (2018), Detroit (2006, 2012), and Miami (1997).

With the Phillies he has followed the familiar script. Hired after the 2020 season, he inherited a win-now team already committed to hundreds of millions for Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, and Zack Wheeler. This spring he added Nick Castellanos (five years, $100 million) and Kyle Schwarber (four years, $79 million). The team opened poorly, 22-29 through June 1. Instead of retreating, Dombrowski saw opportunity in the expanded playoff field, which under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement grew from five teams to six, adding a third Wild Card.

He fired Joe Girardi and promoted bench coach Rob Thomson. After two excellent months, he made deadline moves, landing center fielder Brandon Marsh, starter Noah Syndergaard, and reliever David Robertson to support his stars. Schwarber told reporters this month that the moves sent a message: the club was there and wanted to win. Philadelphia barely made the playoffs as a No. 6 seed, but its stars have excelled against elite October competition, and the added depth has avoided a fatal weakness. The result is the franchise's first postseason run in 13 years.

The Sox decided Dombrowski's model had run its course in Boston. For the Phillies, it has worked, and it leaves them with something Boston and 27 other teams can only envy.