On a day when the Nifty 50 slipped below 22,900, the Indian market found itself weighed down by stubbornly high crude oil and rising geopolitical unease, the kind of pressure that tests the patience of anyone who has ever tried to read the mood of a crowd. ICICI Securities' Jay Thakkar, watching the options market where bets are placed on what comes next, judges the near term to lean sideways or downward until the index reclaims 23,000. Like many who have stood at this kind of crossroads before, he frames the moment not as a verdict but as a range to be respected, and he offers three stock fut
Thakkar Sees Sideways-to-Negative Nifty Bias as Crude Weighs; Recommends LTM, Dr Reddy's Buys and Oberoi Realty Sell
A close above 23,000 could trigger further short covering.
Mark
Why does the 22,500-23,000 range matter so much here?
Mimi
Because it moved. Thakkar says the range shifted down from 23,000-23,500, and he ties that to call writers staying aggressive. The ceiling has effectively dropped.
Mark
And what would change his view?
Mimi
A close above 23,000. He says that could trigger further short covering, so the cautious bias would ease.
Luke
Worth being clear that this is one analyst's read of options positioning. The range and the 22,500 break are his expectations, not confirmed outcomes.
Mark
The break below 22,500 depends on crude, right?
Mimi
Yes, he says it is likely if crude stays elevated. Then supports at 22,000 and 21,700 come into play, and he calls 21,700 crucial.
Luke
The report doesn't say what crude price he means by elevated, or which geopolitical events are driving the tension. Those are gaps.
Mark
How do the three stock calls fit the cautious market view?
Mimi
Each rests on stock-specific signals: LTM's base and short positions, Dr Reddy's outperformance versus the pharma index, and Oberoi's lower tops and lower bottoms.
Luke
They are still trade ideas with stop losses, not predictions, and the disclaimer says as much.
Der Puls
- The Nifty 50 closed below 22,900 and is opening under pressure from high crude prices and rising geopolitical tension.
- Call writers are aggressive, and the immediate trading range has been pulled down to 22,500-23,000 from the previous 23,000-23,500.
- Thakkar recommends two buys in LTM and Dr Reddy's and one sell in Oberoi Realty, each with defined stop losses.
- A break below 22,500 looks likely if crude stays elevated, with 21,700 flagged as the crucial support to watch.
- A close above 23,000 could ignite short covering and shift the market's direction back toward recovery.
On a day when the Nifty 50 slipped below 22,900, the Indian market found itself weighed down by stubbornly high crude oil and rising geopolitical unease, the kind of pressure that tests the patience of anyone who has ever tried to read the mood of a crowd. ICICI Securities' Jay Thakkar, watching the options market where bets are placed on what comes next, judges the near term to lean sideways or downward until the index reclaims 23,000. Like many who have stood at this kind of crossroads before, he frames the moment not as a verdict but as a range to be respected, and he offers three stock futures trades as a map for navigating it. Whether the market finds its footing will depend, as it so often does, on what the oil price decides to do.
The Nifty 50 ended Wednesday's session below 22,900, and Indian markets are expected to open cautiously on Thursday. The pressure comes from persistently high crude oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions, and traders are bracing for whatever comes next.
Jay Thakkar, Vice President and Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities, reads the short-term picture as sideways to negative until the Nifty clears 23,000. Options data show call writers remaining aggressive, which has pushed the immediate trading range down to 22,500-23,000 from the earlier 23,000-23,500. He sees a break below 22,500 as likely if crude stays elevated, with 22,000 and then 21,700 as the next supports. He treats 21,700 as the crucial level, while a close above 23,000 could trigger further short covering.
Thakkar named three stock futures trades. He recommends buying LTM at Rs 4,280-4,310, targeting Rs 4,450-4,550 with a stop below Rs 4,230, citing a short-term base and accumulated short positions that could fuel a rally. He also recommends buying Dr Reddy's Laboratories at Rs 1,230-1,250, targeting Rs 1,300 and Rs 1,350 with a stop below Rs 1,180, based on outperformance against the Nifty Pharma Index and fresh long additions. Finally, he recommends selling Oberoi Realty at Rs 1,640-1,660, targeting Rs 1,580-1,550 with a stop above Rs 1,720, reflecting lower tops, lower bottoms, and elevated inflation risk.
The views belong to Thakkar, not NDTV Profit, and readers are advised to consult their own financial adviser before acting. For now, the market's near future hinges on 23,000 on the upside and 22,500 and 21,700 on the downside, with crude oil likely to decide which way it breaks.
The Nifty 50 ended Wednesday's session below the 22,900 mark, and the Indian market is expected to open cautiously on Thursday, with the pressure still on. The reasons given are persistently high crude oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions.
Jay Thakkar, Vice President and Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities, reads the short-term bias as sideways to negative. That holds, in his view, until the Nifty clears 23,000. His read of the options market is that call writers remain aggressive. As a result, the immediate trading range has moved down to 22,500-23,000, from 23,000-23,500 before.
Thakkar laid out how he sees the levels. A break below 22,500 is likely if crude stays elevated. Below that, the next supports are 22,000 and 21,700, and he treats 21,700 as the crucial one. On the other side, a close above 23,000 could set off further short covering.
Against that backdrop he named three trades, all in stock futures: two buys and one sell.
The first buy is LTM, with an entry range of Rs 4,280-4,310. His targets are Rs 4,450-4,550, with a stop loss below Rs 4,230. Thakkar says the stock has formed a short-term base after recovering from lower levels. Options data point to support at Rs 4,200-4,300, and he calls Rs 4,500 the key near-term target. He also notes that accumulated short positions could fuel a short-covering rally.
The second buy is Dr Reddy's Laboratories, with entry at Rs 1,230-1,250. Targets are Rs 1,300 and Rs 1,350, and the stop loss sits below Rs 1,180. His case is that the stock has outperformed the Nifty Pharma Index and has seen long additions in futures, which he reads as a bullish near-term trend. Options data show strong put additions at Rs 1,100-1,200, and he says a move above Rs 1,200 could bring more short covering.
The sell call is Oberoi Realty, with entry at Rs 1,640-1,660. He targets Rs 1,580-1,550 and places the stop loss above Rs 1,720. The stock has formed lower tops and lower bottoms while short positions have increased, which Thakkar takes as near-term weakness. Options data show significant call additions at Rs 1,680-1,720, and he keeps the outlook negative until those levels are breached. He added that elevated inflationary pressure could also weigh on the stock.
The views are Thakkar's own, not NDTV Profit's, and the publication advises readers to consult their own financial adviser before investing. The levels to watch are 23,000 on the upside, where a close could trigger short covering, and 22,500 and then 21,700 on the downside, depending largely on where crude oil goes.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
Call writers remain aggressive, with the immediate trading range shifting to 22,500-23,000 from 23,000-23,500. A break below 22,500 is likely if crude oil prices remain elevated.— Jay Thakkar, ICICI Securities
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