On the banks of the Rio Grande, where a chapel older than the modern state has watched generations cross and settle, a shift in political feeling is taking shape among Texas Hispanic voters. Many who once backed Donald Trump for promising to end the chaos at the border now find themselves troubled by how that promise is being carried out, especially when hardworking neighbours are taken from their jobs and families. As the November midterms approach, the question is whether this unease will settle into a lasting change of allegiance or ease again once the sense of threat recedes.
Texas Hispanic Voters Who Lifted Trump in 2024 Now Show Signs of Drifting Toward Democrats
Families face deportation of parents, leaving students with lost guardians, and workers are detained at work sites, according to local residents interviewed.
Border security and ICE enforcement are two distinct issues here
Mark
Why does this story hinge on a priest in a tiny chapel?
Mimi
Because Snipes captures the split. People here wanted the border secured, and they got that. What they're reacting to is who is being picked up now.
Mark
So border security and ICE enforcement are separate issues for these voters?
Mimi
Often, yes. Guerrero voted for Trump three times, yet he's planning to vote Democrat, and he describes a contractor whose crews shrank from 35 to maybe four to six.
Luke
Careful with that one. It's a secondhand anecdote from a single acquaintance, not a measured labour figure.
Mark
Fair. What about the polling?
Mimi
Surveys since late summer show a majority of Texas Hispanic voters disapproving of Trump and favouring Democrats by a significant margin.
Luke
The article doesn't give the exact margin, and it concedes polls may be wrong. In the 15th district, Democrats lead by five or six points on a map built for an 18-point Republican edge, but that's polling, not a result.
Mark
Is this a Democratic gain, then?
Mimi
Not necessarily. Madrid says Latinos lean independent, and Pulido says people are disillusioned with both parties.
Luke
Right, and turnout may matter more than persuasion, as the Republican volunteer said. Whether the drift becomes votes is unknown until 3 November.
Il Polso
- Immigration arrests in Texas have reached a scale that sends families into fear, with students losing parents and workers detained on job sites.
- Voters who once cheered border security now split from ICE enforcement, drawing a line between criminals and productive residents being deported.
- Democrats are pressing cost-of-living messages and a redrawn 15th district, where polls show a narrow but real lead that Republicans did not expect to lose.
- Republicans are scrambling to contain the damage, with local leaders praising the border results while admitting the national mood has turned against them.
- The outcome remains uncertain, since polls could be wrong, but a swing here could reshape races across Texas and open a Senate seat that has been out of reach for decades.
On the banks of the Rio Grande, where a chapel older than the modern state has watched generations cross and settle, a shift in political feeling is taking shape among Texas Hispanic voters. Many who once backed Donald Trump for promising to end the chaos at the border now find themselves troubled by how that promise is being carried out, especially when hardworking neighbours are taken from their jobs and families. As the November midterms approach, the question is whether this unease will settle into a lasting change of allegiance or ease again once the sense of threat recedes.
Just before dawn in the Rio Grande Valley, worshippers gathered for a Friday service at La Lomita Catholic Chapel, a whitewashed building standing in the scrub close to the river. Father Roy Snipes, who has served the community for almost half a century, used his short sermon to speak against the detention and deportation of neighbours who are, in his words, poor and good people. He recalled that the promise had been to target the worst offenders, yet almost daily he hears of a man stopped on his way to work. Texas now accounts for roughly a third of ICE arrests nationwide, and two educators told of students forced to leave after their parents were deported.
The border that once saw millions of apprehensions in a single year is now quiet, and that quiet helped Trump win around 55 percent of Hispanic votes in Texas in 2024, a record for a Republican. Since late summer, however, polls suggest most Texas Hispanic voters now disapprove of him. Javier Villalobos, the Republican mayor of McAllen, still praises the border results but says the problem is deporting productive, law-abiding people. Mario Guerrero, a young businessman who voted for Trump three times, now plans to vote Democrat, noting that workers who once filled his friend's crews have dwindled to a handful.
Cost of living weighs heavily on voters, and at a local avocado festival residents blamed the president for rising prices. Democrats hope to win the redrawn 15th district, where Bobby Pulido, a Tejano singer, focuses on the economy rather than national party causes. Republicans acknowledge the headwinds, and if the polls hold, the shift could reach well beyond this district and perhaps a Senate seat that Democrats have not won in over thirty years.
Just before dawn in the Rio Grande Valley, worshippers were arriving for the Friday service at La Lomita Catholic Chapel. The whitewashed building dates to the American Civil War era and stands in the scrub about 200 yards from the Rio Grande. The barking of Father Roy Snipes' dogs announced the priest, who has served here for almost half a century and is known locally as the Cowboy Priest. He wears a Stetson instead of a traditional priest's hat, and the chapel filled with a Roy Rogers song.
During Trump's first administration, Snipes resisted plans to seize the chapel's land for the border wall. This time his short sermon to about 30 mostly Hispanic worshippers concerned Immigration and Customs Enforcement. He said there was no good excuse to detain, incarcerate and deport poor, good people who are neighbours. The promise had been to go after the worst of the worst, he said, and on the border the cartel fits that description. But almost every day, he said, you hear of a man stopped on the way to work. Texas accounted for roughly one-third of all ICE arrests nationwide in July 2026, a larger share than any other state, according to figures obtained by the Deportation Data Project. Afterwards, two educators said many of their students were having to leave because their parents were being deported. One said the cruelty was turning the tide, at least they hoped so.
Turning the tide is what Democrats want to do in Texas in the midterms on 3 November, and it will not be easy. This stretch of the river was once among the busiest crossing points on the border. Under Joe Biden, more than 2.5 million apprehensions were recorded in a single year. Trump promised to stop the crossings in 2024, and border crossings are now at their lowest in decades. That promise helped him win around 55% of Hispanic votes in Texas, a record for a Republican presidential candidate.
Since late summer, polls show a majority of Texas Hispanic voters disapprove of him, and they favour Democrats over Republicans by a significant margin. Javier Villalobos, the Republican mayor of McAllen, expects a tough election but praised the administration for securing the border. Most people accept deporting criminals and violent people, he said; the problem comes when productive, law-abiding people are deported.
Mario Guerrero, a young Mexican-American businessman who leads the South Texas Builders Association, voted for Trump three times because of the influx under Biden. He said voters were not told how extreme the measures would be, pointing to recent shootings involving ICE agents in US cities. He knows a man who had 35 workers every day last year and who now would be lucky to get four to six. Guerrero plans to vote Democrat while calling himself neither Democrat nor Republican. Mike Madrid, a Republican consultant and expert on Hispanic voters, says Latinos are more likely than any other group to identify as independents.
The belief in a lasting shift toward Republicans led Trump to press Texas and other states to redraw congressional maps before the next census. Texas's 15th district, redrawn after the 2020 census and won by a Republican in 2022, was redrawn again in 2025 to give Republicans a notional 18-point majority. Polling currently shows a Democratic lead of five or six points. The Democrat, Tejano singer and two-time Latin Grammy winner Bobby Pulido, has distanced himself from the national party and focuses on the economy. He says people here do not want to hear about social justice or climate change first.
Cost of living tops voters' priorities in many polls. At a local avocado festival, Dave Baldwin and Veronica Salazar blamed the president for rising prices. Among Republicans there is a sense of being on the back foot. Student volunteer Alexis Uscanga called the midterms purely a game of turnout. Tano Tijerina, the Republican candidate in the Democratic-held 28th district, said the national headwinds are real.
If the polls are right, and that is not guaranteed, even a modest swing back could reshape races well beyond Texas, and possibly put a US Senate seat in play. Democrats have not won one in the state in more than 30 years.
Citazioni salienti
There's no good excuse to detain, incarcerate and deport poor, good folks who are our neighbours.— Father Roy Snipes, La Lomita Chapel
The midterms are just purely a game of turnout.— Alexis Uscanga, Republican student volunteer
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Politics & Governance