Teodoro's Seoul Rebuke of Chinese Note Raises Stakes in Manila-Beijing South China Sea Standoff

On Sept 8, in the middle of a speech about the South China Sea at the Seoul Defence Dialogue, Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr was handed a note. It set out China's position on the 2016 arbitration ruling, the decision that went in Manila's favour after the Philippines took Beijing to an international tribunal under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, or UNCLOS. According to the forum's organisers, as reported by South Korea's Yonhap News Agency, the note came from a military attache at the Chinese embassy in Seoul.

Teodoro read it aloud. He then answered it, criticising what he called coercion, bullying and aggression by China in the South China Sea, and accusing Beijing of violating UNCLOS, a treaty it has signed. Videos of the moment were widely shared by Filipinos on social media, and the episode has been well received at home. Senator Erwin Tulfo praised Teodoro for doing "the right thing" by standing his ground. Philippine Coast Guard spokesman Jay Tarriela went further, calling it evidence of Chinese bullying and urging international condemnation of Beijing's conduct.

Dr Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, was in the room. He recalled that a delegate seated in front of him began to clap once Teodoro finished, and much of the audience followed. "That was quite rousing at the moment," he told The Straits Times, calling it an embarrassment for China, which saw its arguments rebutted point by point before an international audience. He read the applause as a signal from South-east Asian countries: we like what you're doing, but we're not going to be like you.

China has not directly rebutted Teodoro. Asked on Sept 9, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said she was "not sure what exactly happened at the event", then restated Beijing's long-standing rejection of the arbitral award. She urged "the certain individual of the Philippine side" to stop the "provocations and theatrics" and to stop undermining China-Philippines relations and stability in the South China Sea, without naming Teodoro. China had already sanctioned him on June 11 over what it called "irresponsible remarks", barring him, his spouse and his child from the mainland, Hong Kong and Macau.

Chinese analysts disagree about what follows. Shi Yinhong, director of the Centre for American Studies at Renmin University of China, called Teodoro's conduct "nothing exceptional" given more than a decade of confrontations between the two countries. He observed that China seemed to have no meaningful official delegation or senior representative at the forum; had one been present, he argued, Teodoro would not have gone unanswered on stage. A weightier response, if Beijing wanted one, could come through coast guard enforcement action in the South China Sea, though Shi said that depends on an opportunity that may not arise.

Zhu Feng, dean of the School of International Studies at Nanjing University, did not expect the incident to lead China to increase pressure on Manila. In his reading, the attache's note reflected Chinese military worry over Teodoro's visit to South Korea: Beijing fears Manila is courting Seoul to join the US and Japan in intervening in the South China Sea. The note, he said, was meant to tell the Philippines that outside powers would not change China's claims and could make stabilising the situation more unpredictable. Others have suggested Beijing could use the episode to sharpen nationalist rhetoric against Manila. Dai Fan of Jinan University told the Global Times it should be viewed against Teodoro's series of provocations in recent years, and said some of his statements have been out of step with the Philippine President and official positions.

The wider diplomatic picture is mixed. On July 12, the 10th anniversary of the ruling, the Philippines joined Japan, the US and 11 other countries in a statement that China's expansive maritime claims have no legal basis. Yet on Aug 14, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr told a Foreign Correspondents Association of the Philippines luncheon that a joint oil and gas exploration deal with Beijing in the South China Sea was a "distinct possibility", though he gave no timetable.

Antonio Carpio, a former Supreme Court senior associate justice who was on the Philippine legal team in the arbitration, said Teodoro used the moment to reinforce Manila's legal position before an international audience. China says it does not recognise the award because it never consented to the arbitration, Carpio told ST, but signing and ratifying UNCLOS gives consent in advance. "So, of course, the world will support us," he said.

What to watch now is whether Beijing answers at sea, as Shi suggests it might, or lets the matter pass, as Zhu expects, and how Marcos's openness to a joint energy deal sits beside his defence secretary's tone.